Ep 277. - Power Play: Venezuela, the New MBS and Trump’s World | Sami Hamdi
This week on The Thinking Muslim, we are joined once again by Sami Hamdi for a timely discussion on shifting power dynamics in the Muslim world. He examines Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman, particularly MBS’s relationship with the UAE and Mohammed bin Zayed, and the implications of this alliance for Yemen, Somaliland, and wider regional politics, including Israel. We also discuss the kidnapping involving Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, situating it within broader questions of power, coercion, and international politics.
You can find Sami Hamdi here:
X: https://x.com/SALHACHIMI
IG: https://www.instagram.com/salhachimi
Subscribe to Our Dubbing Channels:
Thinking Muslim Arabia: https://youtube.com/@thinkingmuslimarabic
Thinking Muslim Urdu:
https://youtube.com/@thinkingmuslimurdu
Thinking Muslim French: https://youtube.com/@thinkingmuslimfrancais
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7vXiAjVFnhNI3T9Gkw636a
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-thinking-muslim/id1471798762
Sign up to Muhammad Jalal's newsletter: https://jalalayn.substack.com
Transcript - This is an automated transcript and may not reflect the actual conversation
Introduction
0:06
Sami Hamdalam and welcome back to our studio in London. Thank you for having me. Thank you
0:13
for for joining us and uh we're back in London, Sami. So um any uh any trips coming up for you?
0:19
Alhamdulillah. I think I'm going on the road again soon. California anytime soon? California. Not anytime soon. I'll take a break a bit from the US while things go a bit wild over there. Yeah,
0:28
you know, they're kidnapping presidents now from different countries and and the like. Although there was a very interesting meme, just to start a bit lightly before we get into the deeper
0:35
stuff. I saw this meme of a picture. It said, so they go in, they grab Maduro from Venezuela,
0:40
they bring him to the US, ICE detains Maduro and deports him back to Venezuela. So, you know, it' be interesting to see what ICE does with Maduro in New York. But jokes aside, yeah,
0:48
it's uh alhamdulillah in the road again. I had a good break and and we'll see where it goes. Well, let's talk about that subject of Maduro, right? because it's extraordinary. Uh, President Maduro,
Maduro’s Kidnapping
0:59
President of Venezuela, of course, was kidnapped uh by uh a US force and brought back to New York
1:05
where he's now going to stand trial for for ostensibly drugs charges. Um, I mean,
1:10
from your perspective, what does this episode tell us about American foreign policy in general under
1:15
Donald Trump? What's worth noting is that this is not the first time that the US has done this. And I think sometimes when that question is posed, it's almost as if there is a shock and surprise
1:23
that the US is going in and imposing regime change as if it is something new in American foreign policy that it hasn't been doing since 1940s, 1950s across the entire world and the
1:33
like. In fact, in Venezuela itself, you remember for example that they kidnapped Chavez who was the president beforehand and then people took to the streets and they were forced to bring Chavez back.
1:42
something that's not happening with Madura in this case because I think Maduro domestically didn't have that particular support. Even those who are opposed to what happened to Madura are not doing
1:51
it because they like Maduro. It's more about this idea of how do you hold on to this principle and the like. But I think that if we're looking at it in terms of geopolitics, I think that Marco Rubio,
1:59
the Secretary of State, I think he epitomized the US view towards why they did what they did,
2:05
which is that they're looking at this world now with this increasing competition from China and from the Russians. And Russia and China geographically may be far away,
2:13
but Venezuela is very close. Venezuela has immense oil reserves, probably the biggest in
2:18
the world. And there is a concern, particularly in Washington. And this isn't a Trump administration
2:23
concern. This is also a Biden administration concern, an Obama administration concern, and Trump version one and beforehand as well. This idea that China and Russia cannot be allowed
2:35
to play in the backyard of what Americans consider to be their own backyard. And this isn't something
2:40
even recent. The Bay of Pigs where about with the Russians in Cuba and the like shows you the extent that the Americans were willing to go to ensure that none of these Latin American states fall
2:48
within the orbit of China and of Russia. So if you look at what for example Kennedy did once upon a
2:54
time sending in troops towards Cuba, the point that I'm saying is this isn't a Trump phenomenon
2:59
that we're seeing in terms of kidnapping Maduro and perhaps bring him to New York and putting him on trial in New York. The sort of you know the apprentice style sitcom or or the like. Perhaps
3:08
that is particularly new. But certainly, I don't think it's a knee-jerk reaction from the Trump administration. Moreover, you'll remember that the bounty that was put on Maduro, the
3:17
bounty indicating that there is a multi-million dollar reward for anybody who catches Maduro,
3:23
was not announced under the Trump administration first, the Biden administration already had a bounty out for Maduro, suggesting that the Biden administration already had this idea of we need to
3:32
get rid of the Maduro administration. We need to get rid of Maduro himself. We need to find a way to capture him. and there is a reward for anybody who brings Maduro. So in many ways I'm wary of the
3:43
premise of why did Trump do this and I prefer to put it back within the correct framework which is
3:49
why has America done it again and America has done it again because America is doing what it
3:54
always does whenever it feels the heat of that geopolitical competition whereby now it feels
3:59
like it's no longer the sole hedgeman. It's seeing China start to rise. It's seeing Russia start to
4:04
rise and there's a concern amongst the Americans about how do we compete with the Chinese and the Russians in that regard particularly given from Trump administration's perspective that Europe
4:14
is not a reliable ally. Europe don't pay on their military expenditure. Europe is not contributing
4:20
enough. Europe is not contributing enough to NATO and they're not contributing enough with regards to Ukraine. There's a sense in the Washington administration that America needs to reassert
4:30
itself in a world where people are now doubting American power because of the rise of the dragon
4:36
and the rise of the bear or call them whatever it is that you wish. That's not saying that what Trump did is justified or legitimate. But I do think that the idea that somehow that the facade
4:46
of this rules-based order collapsed as a result of what happened to Maduro. It collapsed on the Iraq
4:51
war. It collapsed in Afghanistan. It collapsed in oper collapsed in operation desert storm. It collapsed in in Bosnia. It collapsed in all these other different various wars. I'm very wary of the
5:01
arrogance of assuming that our lifetime somehow is the beginning and the end of all of history. Trump
5:07
has done nothing strange with regards to American foreign policy. And Europe is doing nothing
5:12
strange in the way that it refuses to condemn what Donald Trump has done. And now the problem
5:18
for Europe is that now that you've allowed Maduro to be captured in this manner and taken and there
5:24
are suggestions perhaps that Maduro had become so unpopular that this was enabled by some members
5:31
of the Maduro regime who basically said to Donald Trump don't punish the regime take Maduro and then
5:36
because there is a very interesting story when Chavez was kidnapped there wasn't much bloodshed
5:42
when Chavez was kidnapped so many people said why what happened and the reports from inside indicate that Chavez has actually told his team to stand down in order to avoid that bloodshed.
5:49
And basically said, I can get myself back in a different way. It's possible Madura said, "Listen, I don't want that particular bloodshed. Keep the regime intact. I'll go to New York and see how you
5:57
guys deal with things." And the irony is this that Trump perhaps what is new about what Trump did,
6:04
if we really want to talk about what does it say about the new is that Trump is very
6:11
unprecedentedly honest as a US president. as far as US presidents are concerned about why
6:17
he's doing it. I mean, you think about the Iraq war. It was about saving the Iraqis for Saddam Hussein. Trump doesn't even play with this idea of saving Venezuelans. He goes, "We got to go
6:27
in. We got to get the oil." You know, it's it's all being very blunt about what he wants. We're taking control of it the way they took control of Iraq and the way they took control of Afghanistan.
6:35
We're bringing in American companies to benefit. They're going to make a lot of money. And he's saying it bluntly the same way they did in Iraq. The same way they didn't Trump is removing the
6:44
pretense. And that's making the western states uncomfortable because when this was done before,
6:50
they all agreed to pretend it was about international law. Trump doesn't even afford them the vis or the facade of being able to say it's international law. If Trump had said we're
7:00
going in to rescue the Venezuelan people, then Kama when he's interviewed by Laura Kunberg and these others, he could have said, "We're there to rescue the Venezuelan people." The problem is
7:08
because he says it's about oil and now I was stuck because he can't say yes we're with the Americans because Trump has said we're going to exploit another country and we're going to colonize it
7:16
and he can't say that we're against it because Donald Trump will punish him and impose higher tariffs on the United Kingdom. So I think in this regard certainly it's new. But the final point
7:25
I'll make on this is this is that what happened to Maduro doesn't just affect the US and Europe.
7:33
Israel will be watching to see if this can be done to Ahmed Shara in Syria. China will be
7:39
watching to see if it's something it can do in Taiwan. Russia will be seeing if it's something
7:45
it can do in Kiev, particularly given that Trump wants that peace. Because now that there's nobody even pretending, forget they weren't upholding it before. Now that there's no one even pretending
7:54
that international law exists, there's nothing stopping Trump going to take Greenland. there's
7:59
nothing stopping people now seizing different territories and arguing that if Trump did it so publicly for the reasons that he stated then we can do it too and that's what I think the danger
8:08
is now in that now that Trump has abandoned the pretense of international law and gone for hard power and is going to get away with it then I think there are many people very eager to deploy
8:18
that hard power and now it's everything is gloves off okay you say we shouldn't uh build Trump as an
MAGA
8:24
exception here but of course you and I have spoken over the last year or so about MAGA and the MAGA
8:30
movement, the America first movement and the whole idea behind MAGA was to not be interventionist
8:36
to focus on domestic policy to not focus on international policy on foreign policy. Uh what
8:42
we see in here is is a almost a betrayal of those MAGA principles it seems and and in fact some of
8:49
the uh right-wing commentators like Tucker Carlson like Candace have framed it in in that way. This
8:55
is a betrayal of our fundamental principles of why we elected Trump in the first place. I mean,
9:01
shouldn't we in a way, wouldn't we have seen Trump to be an exception here? Yet, Trump has turned out to be as interventionist as the neocons and all of the other Democrats
9:12
and Republican politicians that have uh uh served the United States since uh since uh World War II.
9:20
I think there is there are distinct differences between Trump's interventionism and those of the
9:25
past even if the general framework seems to be exactly the same as I argued earlier it is the same but there's a distinct difference with regards to how Trump goes about it I think
9:33
the first aspect is it's important to put into context the timing of Trump's intervention his
9:40
coup his regime change if you can even call it regime change in Venezuela the first is that he lost New York he lost Virginia and he lost you know number of elections as a result
9:53
of the economic crisis within America itself. He insists that the e economy is doing well but he will be acutely aware as will his government that the economic crisis in America is getting
10:02
worse and he needs to deal with it otherwise he's going to get smashed in the midterm elections. The polls do not look good for Donald Trump at all in those midterm elections. Yeah. In 2018 2019,
10:13
Donald Trump entered into a massive beef with the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman and with the Gulf States over the price of oil. Donald Trump's belief was that because they were bringing
10:22
the price of oil up, it was affecting the economy in America and it was affecting the ordinary daily
10:28
lives of ordinary Americans as a result of the cumulative and and and costs that were rising as a result and therefore he was asking for a lower oil price. The Saudi crown prince and the other
10:36
Gulf states said absolutely not because they were worried about shale oil at the time that Trump was investing in in the hope that the US would be self-sufficient from the Americans. So when he
10:44
asked for a cut in production, the Saudis refused to cut production and instead actually tried to flood the market with oil to force the price so low so it wouldn't be profitable for anybody so
10:53
that Trump would be forced into backtracking. And Trump eventually made a deal with the Saudis and said, "Okay, fine. You don't cut production. I'll cut production instead." Something that's illegal
11:01
in the US. But he found a loophole in the anti- monopoly law that exists in America. The point being here is Trump's conclusion in 2018 was if I bring down the oil price, I solve much of the
11:12
economic wars that are in America. I solve the gas prices that Americans are complaining about and therefore I lower delivery costs because gas prices are he sees oil as the center of how that
11:22
economy actually works. The point here being is by taking control of Venezuela's oil, Donald Trump
11:28
believes that he will be independent of the Saudis and the Gulf States. he'll be able to control that oil price, bring that oil price down before the midterm elections. People see a tangible
11:37
change in the American economy, they say, "Donald Trump did it. I'm going to go and vote for Donald Trump." The second point here is that Donald Trump believes that his base will not tolerate
11:46
a prolonged intervention. So, Donald Trump agrees to a maneuver that doesn't involve any bloodshed
11:52
of any American soldiers. No American soldier was killed in it. And it's very much like a shock and all, very quick in and out. None of this business of staying in Iraq. I'm not in this business of
12:01
staying in Afghanistan. If it's going to be done, it has to be done in a way that maximizes
12:07
the benefits of the Americans. And if I have to intervene, it has to be done in a way that's the least costly possible so that I can still claim to be an anti-interventionist. And I think Shimemer
12:17
made a very similar point as well. I was watching one of his interviews where he made the point that Donald Trump's intervention is not like those before him in the sense that he hates intervening
12:26
and only intervenes when he's absolutely certain of the result and certain that he won't get bogged
12:31
down into it. That's not to say that Trump is different from his predecessor, but it means that Trump's calculations are very different. Dick Cheney loved the idea of rebuilding the
12:40
Iraqi state. Trump hates the idea of rebuilding Venezuela. Trump wants prices to go down in
12:45
America so he can win the midterm elections and he doesn't want to be bullied by international powers when it comes to the oil price because he has no short-term solution for any of these economic
12:53
problems. And this is what brings me back to your point even with regards to Greenland. One of the reasons that he wants a military base in Greenland and again this is not a justification for anything
13:01
Trump is doing. Rather, it is to emphasize that there is a Trumpian logic to what he's doing.
13:07
This isn't him just lashing out. Trump believes that if he can take over Greenland and establish a military presence over there, then the oil ships that tend to cross that Atlantic Ocean that used
13:18
to go from Venezuela to Iran, for example, or the Russian oil tankers and gas tankers,
13:23
Trump will find it easier from Greenland to launch military operations to stop those oil tankers
13:29
going to and fro. And he will be able to seize that oil and bring it and either ransom it or use
13:34
it into America to also bring those prices down. It's piracy basically, but essentially being done
13:40
by the global superpower. The point is there is a logic to what appears to be a madness. It's an
13:45
illegal logic. Certainly, it's wrong. Certainly, but in the realms of geopolitics, there's a reason
13:51
why Trump is doing it. And that's why I think that what Trump hopes is that with all of this stuff that he's done with Venezuela, by the time he gets to the midterm elections, he'll manage to
14:00
bring the oil price and gas prices low enough to be able to temper the damage that he's expecting the midterm elections because he does not want to be a lame duck in the final two years. The final
14:10
point worth mentioning here on this point is this. I don't think it's a coincidence that Netanyahu
14:15
was with Donald Trump a couple of days before what happened to Madura because Donald Netanyahu has openly stated that Venezuela is an open enemy. Venezuela has often been seen as a supporter of
14:23
the Palestinian cause. Venezuela has been seen as a means through which there has been material
14:29
support for the Palestinians allegedly according to what Netanyahu is saying. And Netanyahu in the midst of the shift in public opinion is trying to punish every single individual who has contributed
14:40
to that shifting in public opinion or who is deemed to be supporting those Palestinians.
14:45
Which is why I think it's ironic that Colombian president is also being threatened by Donald Trump. We see Netanyahu lobbying against Erdogan. We see Netanyahu lobbying in Europe against every
14:54
pro Palestinian organization. There's a sense particularly on the part of Netanyahu that in the midst of this popular perception that I'm getting weak, I need to smash everybody and let
15:03
them know that Zionist power is supreme. And in the case of Maduro, he certainly made a point.
Donate to Baitulmaal
15:16
Today I'm here uh very honored to be here in county Vir in Kenya. Bulmal has been
15:22
involved in various projects and one of the project which we have been sponsoring about
15:29
supplying the clean water to different villages in Wajir County and I see as I see most of the
15:38
families and children they came here to uh to collect this water and looking at them
15:45
uh their smiling faces uh to to get this precious commodity
15:50
uh makes the Bal Mal and its team very proud and happy. Thank you very much to be here.
16:06
Visit btml. us/thinkingmuslim to learn more and give. What about Iran? I mean
Iran and Donald Trump
16:12
at that press conference you talk about in Mara Lago uh there was a uh a very assertive
16:18
approach to Iran and and later on Donald Trump sent out the message on on Truth Social that
16:24
uh American uh military was armed and loaded or locked and loaded when it comes to
16:30
uh uh safeguarding the so-called democratic or the anti- regime uh demonstrators uh in Tehran.
16:39
Um what do you do do you think the prospect in the same vein that he has intervened in Latin
16:45
America do you feel that uh there is any prospect of Donald Trump invading or at least interfering
16:52
in the domestic affairs of of Iran? I think that when it comes to Iran the situation is a bit
16:58
different with regards to Donald Trump. I think with Venezuela it was easy and straightforward with regards to Maduro. And I think that when you look at Latin America generally,
17:05
their ties with China are rapidly increasing. And I think Donald Trump is hoping that what he
17:11
did to Maduro will scare Lula in Brazil. It will scare the Colombian president to scare
17:16
Mexico into weaning their influence, weaning their dependency and their ties with regards to China.
17:22
He's hoping that what he did with Maduro will have that chilling effect. With Iran, it's very different. Primarily because when the Israelis went head-to-head with the Iranians, they
17:31
couldn't survive on their own without American assistance. America had to spend a lot of money in order to help the Israelis out in order to repair that Iron Dome. The cost of changing the regime in
17:40
Iran is far more expensive than what they did with Maduro. Trump is not inclined towards an
17:46
operation that requires the amount of investment that changing the regime in Iran is required. It's true that Pompeo indicated in a tweet that Mossad agents are walking on the streets of Iran
17:56
right now trying to support the protests that are taking place against that Iranian regime. But Iran
18:01
is a very different geographically, Iran is very different in terms of the relationship between the regime and its people. and Iran. There is another angle to it which is that whereas maybe four or
18:12
five years ago Saudi Arabia, UAE and these states wanted to see a regime change in Iran,
18:17
today Saudi doesn't want to see a regime change in Iran, neither does Turkey, neither does Iraq, neither even does Syria want to see regime change because they are worried that the fallout from any
18:26
regime change in Iran. That the Americans showed in Iraq and Afghanistan that they don't have the
18:32
capacity or capability to contain the fallout from a disintegration of Iran. in Damascus is
18:38
in no position to handle a fallout in Iran. Iraq is not in a position to hand out a fallout with Iran. Saudi most definitely does not want another war on another front with regards to the Iranians
18:48
themselves. I think that Donald Trump when he hears all of these voices saying that this is too
18:53
expensive. It's hard to imagine that he will take such initiative as he did against Maduro against
18:58
the Iranians themselves. And the other point worth mentioning here is in the to quote the words of an analyst I like to follow called Minerni. He was asked once how do we interpret the Trump's policy
19:09
from what he says and he said Trump's policy is always based on the last person that he spoke to. So if he speaks to Netanyahu he will say I hate Iran. When he speaks to the Saudis who don't want
19:18
war with Iran he'll say Iran has agreed to make peace. It depends on who he's speaking to. And that's why I think that I think the Iran statement is certainly bluff and I think Trump is monitoring
19:27
the reaction to what he did to Maduro and hoping that has the intended effect that won't require
19:33
him to invest American resources in future in terms of investing American resources in regime
19:38
change that he doesn't want to get bogged down into because Trump may see an economic need in
19:44
securing the oil but he's very wary that his base is starting to fracture. He's wary that his base
19:50
are angry that he intervened. He's worry that his base don't understand it. He's worried that his
19:55
base are debating the matter. You can see the Matt Walshes and Tucker Cares and these others debating why on earth did we get involved in Venezuela and the like. He doesn't want to exacerbate that. And
20:04
this is what leads him to suggest that what Trump did was not something that was done off the cuff, but something that he felt he was pressed into by a geopolitical reality that he feels he needs
20:16
to tackle and he did it in a very Trumpian way. So can I ask you about the Netanyahu Trump press conference uh that took place as I said in Florida in in Mara Lago and uh I mean many commentators
Trump and Netanyahu
20:27
suggested that there was a lot of consensus during that press conference and you know there was a loving basically between Trump and Netanyahu but of course there was some slight push backs
20:36
uh in particular over Turkey and that second phase and whether there could be a Turkey Turkish force
20:43
uh stationed somewhere in Gaza and there was some conversation about uh the West Bank and settlement
20:48
activity in the West Bank. And you can see the body language between the two was was somewhat
20:54
icy at that stage because, you know, Trump Trump said that um Netanyahu was wrong on West Bank
21:00
settlements. I mean, do you see that as a as a as a a disalignment between the two sides?
21:07
Uh or I spoke to Daniel Levy about this and his argument was that, you know, it's it's really
21:13
just it's minor. It's a superficial disagreement and on most issues they are they are very firmly
21:18
aligned like how do you see that relationship I suppose between Trump and Netanyahu today there is
21:24
generally a maxim in terms of political leadership it's it's a funny story we'll start with this just to change the pace a bit ali who was the president of Yemen was once asked by a Tunisian journalist
21:35
uh why don't you visit Tunisia you know like to come from time to time and Ali Abdah famously said because we have no problems with Tunisia he said when you see a president flying ing to see a
21:45
president, it means there's a problem that cannot be resolved over the phone. So, you need to get on a plane and go and see that person face to face in order to resolve it. They've had eight meetings,
21:54
have they, in public or something? In the space of a year, Netanyahu has been to the US about seven, eight times. Netanyahu gets on a play. Netanyahu's got a crisis domestically.
22:03
He's got court cases. He has economic crisis. He has the war in in against the Palestinians, the genocide that he's committing in Gaza. He has the issues with regards to Syria and Sue.
22:12
He has the issues with regards to Lebanon. He has the issues with regards to wrestling with Turkey. He has the issues with regards to Egyptian gas. He has the issues with regards to the Mediterranean.
22:20
He has the issues with how to convince the Saudis to stay with normalization given that bin Salman no longer sees much of a benefit in terms of officially normalizing. Net has all of these
22:29
crises, but still finds times to get on a plane to fly all those 15, 14 hours or however long it
22:35
takes to go and see Donald Trump for a few days to sit with him. Not to have a cup, they're not going for a cup of tea. They're not going to say no but like they say you know oh Donald Trump you
22:44
know this is I missed you so much I wanted to sit in Mala go with you and your wife Netanyahu
22:49
is going because no matter how much he calls on the phone Trump does not give him an answer that
22:55
satisfied Netanyahu and let's look this particular situation firstly you're talking about Gaza phase
23:00
2 it is true that Gaza phase 2 is being stalled because the Israelis are bombing the Palestinians
23:07
they are breaking the ceasefire they are killing the Palestinians albeit at a lower intensity than
23:12
before the so-called ceasefire. But certainly the Israelis are trying to provoke the Palestinians into giving a reason for Europe and the Americans to say we need to break this ceasefire. There's a
23:22
reason why Hamas refused to come out and say we're going back to war. Hamas know Israelis are trying to provoke them into an escalation whereby and you'll remember the incident when Israelis claimed
23:31
there was an explosion in Rafa and so they said the ceasefire is broken and they bombed Gaza and the Americans responded and said what do you mean explosion? We know it was you that did it. and the
23:39
Israelis had to go back to the ceasefire within 24 hours. The reason why I say this is that Gaza
23:44
phase 2 is stalled because the Israelis are unsure if Trump will allow them to break the ceasefire.
23:51
The reason it's stuck, it's stuck, of course, because the Americans aren't pushing phase two or rather they haven't. Trump is a bit distracted by Venezuela and by Russia and the like. But it's
24:01
also stalled because Netanyahu is sitting in Tel Aviv saying I don't know what Trump is going to
24:06
allow me to do here. Am I allowed to break the ceasefire? Am I allowed to go back in? Am I allowed to go and colonize the rest of Gaza? Am I allowed to go back to genocide? Trump is not
24:16
telling him no, you can't. But Trump's not telling him yes, you can. And that unpredictability is why
24:21
Netanyahu keeps having to go to the White House and or go to Marago in particular. Remember this time it wasn't the White House. Netanyahu went to Trump's retreat where Trump is
24:32
relaxing because he said, "I don't have time to wait until he gets back to the White House. Mr. Trump please I need to see you urgently and Trump went to him all right fine come to Malago and come
24:41
and sit and let's talk that's what's happening in these meetings Netanyahu is saying to Donald Trump what can I do what can't I do and Trump has given him the same bluff in which there is no meaning
24:51
in what he's saying yes you do what you have to do what does that mean can I go commit genocide no you have to uphold the ceasefire but you said I can do what I have to do yet there is a confusion
25:01
with regards to Netanyahu Mr. President, Turkey is doing horrible things in Syria. I know there's a
25:06
big terrorism problem over there. Exactly. But but Erdogan is my friend. What do you mean Erdogan? How can you tell me on the one hand you have a problem? On the other hand, you're telling me
25:14
Erdog Netanyahu is just as confused as Erdogan is. Is just as confused as you are. Is just as
25:19
confused as everybody else. So Netanyahu sits with Trump trying to extract a promise. Mr. President,
25:25
I need you to go to war with the Iranians. Yes, the Iranians are really bad. Give me a second. Let me go on true social and let me write that Iranian is such a bad country and we're going to prepare
25:34
to go and bomb the Iranians if they do this. Thank you, Mr. President. So, when do we go to war? What war? Netanyahu is is is trying to work out what's happening here, which is why he gets on a plane
25:44
and constantly flies. Think about it this way. Not only is Netanyahu flying to the US, but Netanyahu
25:50
is flying over countries that are sub signitories to the ICC who have an obligation to arrest him.
25:57
Meaning every time Netanyahu flies on those eight trips, it's not like he's getting on a plane and saying, "Okay guys, let's go and enjoy ourselves in Florida." He's saying, "Which countries can
26:07
I fly over?" One time he flies over France, the next day he can't fly over France. He flies over Greece and he fly and then suddenly he can't fly. This isn't easy for Netanyahu to get on a plane
26:16
and go and meet with Donald Trump and to go and speak with him. He's doing it because Trump is not giving him the assurances that Biden gave him. Biden told Netanyahu, "You do what you have to do,
26:28
and I will give you a blank check for it." Trump says that he has a blank check, but then does the
26:33
complete opposite by forcing a ceasefire in Gaza and then saying Erdogan is my friend. Netanyahu doesn't know what to do with Donald Trump. In the words of a a prominent Jewish anti-Zionist,
26:43
I won't mention his name because I didn't get permission to mention his name, but many people follow him, followed by millions of people. We were sitting once in a room and he was asked,
26:52
"What is the difference between Biden and Trump on Palestine?" And the question was asked as a dig towards me in particular. And the and the and the historian responded and said, "Under Biden, you
27:02
always knew that he'd operate under the framework of what all American presidents did with Israel, what Israel wants it does." With Trump, this is his words, not mine. He's so driven by his
27:13
ego that even if Palestinians can't influence him, the Zionists also don't know what he's going to do
27:21
either. And that uncertainty is what unsettles Netanyahu. And this is the point in that press conference. So they sit there have a discussion about Iran. They have a discussion about Syria.
27:30
Israel says, "I need to kill Ahmed. I need to get rid of him." Trump seems to have told Netanyahu
27:37
something that Netanyahu wanted to hear, which is why Netanyahu agreed to the press conference. Then they get to the press conference and Trump gets asked a question by a journalist and he says,
27:45
"Yeah, you know, with regards to the troops that are going into Gaza, you know, Turkey, Erdogan is a good friend of mine. You know, we can send Turkish troops in there." And Netanyahu's reaction
27:53
was, "That's not what you said to me in the in the private meeting. Why are you telling me one thing? I flew all the way here to make sense of what you're saying. You tell me one thing and then you
28:04
go in the press conference and say something else and then you tell me all is going to be fine." What I'm saying is that in that press conference, we did not establish what Trump's policy is. We
28:14
did not establish if he's going to phase two, but we did not establish if he's given up on phase two. We did not establish if Turkeykey's going to be part of the Gaza force or if Turkeykey's not
28:23
going to be part of the Gaza force. Or we did not establish if Trump is going to go to war with the Iranians or if he's not going to go to war with the Iranians. Netanyahu flew 14 hours for clarity
28:34
and got no clarity from Donald Trump when he flew back to Tel Aviv. And that's the double-edged
28:40
sword with Donald Trump when it comes to the issue of the issue of Syria. You don't know what mood
28:45
Donald Trump is going to wake up with tomorrow. Biden, you knew that if Israel gets stuck,
28:52
we can do a humanitarian corridor and help them ethnically cleanse northern Gaza. If Israel is stuck taking Gaza City, we'll send Marines through a humanitarian pier. Blinkin will do the marketing
29:00
for you. And Biden was very proactive in helping Israel with the genocide with Donald Trump. Oh,
29:07
wow. Russia, please look this way, Mr. President. Oh, Venezuela. Oh, Gaza. Okay, phase two. Yes,
29:15
phase two. But I like Erdo. No, no, it it's like trying to, you know, get Trump's attention on something. Netanyao is struggling to do so. This should not be taken as necessarily a positive or
29:27
a negative because it doesn't mean things are getting better and it doesn't mean that the situation in Palestine is getting better. What it means is the Zionists no longer are having
29:37
their way in the way they once did which leaves room for Erdogan and now potentially Muhammad bin
29:42
Salman now that he's falling out with Muhammad bin Zed to go to Donald Trump and present a plan that the Israelis don't like but that says to Trump I can solve this issue for you very quickly just
29:51
implement it and go ahead and do it the same way that I imagine Maduro's underling said to Donald
29:56
Trump when they said Mr. President, we don't want war. We don't want to fight with America. You can take Maduro, leave the regime intact, and we'll make sure that the oil flows to the US. Because
30:06
think about it this way, and I won't go on too long about it. Donald Trump captures Maduro,
30:11
takes him from Karakas and takes him to New York. That Nobel Pri peace prize winner, that Venezuelan
30:18
who won it, the Venezuelan opposition leader, she thinks that this means that Trump is going to go and install her. Yeah. So she's getting ready and her party is getting ready and everybody's
30:26
saying right is this regime change. Then Donald Trump gets asked on Air Force One, Mr. President, when is she coming to Karakas and he says I don't think we'll be bringing her there. She doesn't
30:34
have any power, no influence, you know, she's not even popular. Donald Trump is openly saying, I'm
30:40
not handing over power to her. Then they say to Marco Rubio, so wait a minute, you didn't change the regime. You're going to be working with the Chavistas. and he says, "We've spoken to them and
30:49
they're telling us that they're willing to work with us and willing to abide by our conditions." The implication here being is Trump is not doing what anybody is expecting him to do. Trump
30:59
essentially is, you know, twisting and turning and not even Netanyahu can make sense of what Trump is doing. What that means is, and I promise this is the point I finish on, in order to try,
31:07
if I had to summarize it in one sentence, we don't know what Trump is going to do tomorrow,
31:13
but for the first time in a long time, neither do the Israelis. We don't know what Trump is going
31:19
to do in Gaza tomorrow. But for the first time, neither do the Israelis. We don't know if Turkey
31:26
is going to be able to save Gaza by sending in troops to prevent the Israelis from colonizing it. But for the first time, neither do the Israelis. This period of uncertainty that we're entering in
31:37
is something that if you're looking about it trigger from an amoral political perspective is as an analyst you're thinking this is perhaps better than the certainty of genocide that Biden
31:51
kept promising in his support for I mean Sam that's really interesting but of course the popular perception on social media but actually beyond that on through a number of analysts argue
Trump Zionist?
32:01
that you know this president President Trump is as Zionist as the other presidents. I mean, you saw that Mark Levine, that the Zionist broadcaster who put his arm around Donald Trump and said, "This is
32:12
our first Jewish president." Um, I mean, it looked pretty humiliating. At least that's the perception
32:17
that was given. Um um you we've got Jared Kushner, of course, his son-in-law who's who's
32:23
uh very pro-Zionist, right? um like how do we square these public displays of support for Israel
32:32
and what you say there which is that you know this is a more transactional president. He doesn't have ideology like obviously Joe Biden had. Trump is not Zionist and he's not anti-ionist. Trump
32:45
receives $250 million from a Zionist lobby. Mhm. And so he thanks them at at a gathering
32:55
and invites them to the White House and they tell him, "Mr. President, thank you for taking our
33:02
money and supporting us and you know we've spoken to lawyers and we think you should have a third term as well. Mr. President, we know that the Kataris are whispering in your ear and telling you
33:12
that they will give you hotels and that Eric Trump will get investments. Don't listen to the Kataris,
33:17
Mr. President. you know, ad can give you, you know, more money than the Kataris can offer you. You know, stick with us. And he says, you know, I love you and I love the Kataris. No, but you love
33:26
us more, don't you, Mr. President? Yes. Yes. Of course, I love you more, Mr. President. We know that Erdogan, I get it. You know, he stood with you when, you know, they rigged the elections in,
33:35
you know, 2020 and, you know, he remained your friend and he remained on good ties, but you know, Erdogan secretly dreams of being a sultan and taking over Jerusalem and the like. And
33:44
Donald Trump says, but he does a really good job, you know, of looking after Syria and, you know, reducing American expenses in Syria. But Mr. President, we can cover the expenses. The
33:53
Zionists can spend money to help you in it. Well, how much are we talking over here? Yeah, but I need to see. No, Mr. President, you love us. Even that's the relationship. It's it's not that Trump
34:02
when I say Trump is a transactionist, it's who is the one lobbying with the greatest influence over
34:07
Donald Trump. You think about it this way. The Zionists insisted that Tik Tok should be banned and they got under the Biden administration, they got the paper that says that Tik Tok needs
34:16
to be banned. It just needed a signature of a US president. Biden lost the election or Harris lost
34:21
the election before that signature could be put on the paper. Donald Trump comes to power. The Zionists sit there and they say he's going to ban it. Yes, he's going to ban Tik Tok. He's going to
34:30
ban the means through which Americans are seeing the truth of Palestine. He's going to allow us to hoodwink the Americans again. We're going to shut off the means through which Americans
34:39
are realizing the reality of what's happening in Palestine. That's caused the Americans to go from being pro-Israel to pro Palestine. Trump sits there, looks at the paper and says, "You know
34:49
what? I'm not signing it." When the Zionists tell him, "Why are you not signing it? We lobbyed. We
34:55
gave money. We supported. Ape had your back. We hosted parties for you. We hosted fundraisers."
35:02
Donald Trump actually went to a press conference and when they told him, "Mr. President, why didn't you sign it? Just to give an indication of the kind of President Donald Trump is. Mr. President,
35:10
why didn't you sign the bill banning Tik Tok? Donald Trump didn't say because I think it affects
35:16
American national interest, because it, you know, foreign policy issue, freedom of speech. Donald
35:21
Trump says, and you can find it. It's on Google. You can find it. He says, "When I was about to
35:27
sign it, my son Baron walked into the office and says to me, "Dad, are you really going to ban Tik
35:32
Tok?" And I said, "Well, yeah." And he said, "But why? It was so integral in helping you win the
35:38
election." And I had never used Tik Tok before. My son Baron showed me how to use Tik Tok, and I realized it's actually a really cool product. I'm actually going to call the Chinese and say, "Let's
35:46
go 50/50 on it." If you're a Zionist who spent 250 million on this man's campaign, and he refuses to
35:53
ban Tik Tok, which is one of your main demands. Mitt Romney and Blinkin sat in that conference, and Mitt Romney said that Tik Tok is becoming a problem. and blink said, "Which is why we're
36:02
thinking of banning it, which is why we need to ban it because according to Mitt Romney, there is one Israeli video. There are 30 Palestinian videos for every one Israeli video." So Blinken said,
36:12
"We need to ban it." And the Zionist lobby lobby to ban it. Donald Trump says, "I'm not going to ban it because my son Baron likes it." That's the kind of President Donald Trump is. When they
36:22
wanted to build the Riviera in Gaza and it became the main news, King Abdullah went to visit Donald Trump in a visit that he was slated for, but that I thought was a stroke of diplomatic genius. King
36:32
Abdullah went to see Donald Trump terrified that this Riviera will force Palestinians into Jordan, that will force protest, that will force regime change, that will see the fall of King Abdullah.
36:41
And King Abdullah knew it was an existential crisis if Trump goes through with the Riviera. And Trump had said the day before, we're going to build it. It's going to be awesome. It's going to
36:49
be King Abdullah goes and meets with Donald Trump. He doesn't tell him, "How dare you?" King Abdullah
36:55
says to him, "Mr. President, we believe you're the man of peace." And Trump said, "Yes, I am the man of peace. Mr. President, we believe that you can solve what Sleepy Joe couldn't solve." Yes,
37:04
he was stupid. Sleepy Joe. Mr. President, we all want to help you make this peace plan come to fruition. I like this. I like that you want to work with me. King Abdullah says, "Mr. President,
37:13
if you build this Riviera, these Palestinians will come and our regimes that we want to help you with, we're going to collapse because of these Palestinian regimes. Then you'll have more extreme
37:22
regimes and they'll make your life even harder. Then you'd have to spend. And Donald Trump says, "Oh, I didn't consider this part." Then King Abdullah says, "As a gesture, I'll take in 2,000
37:31
Palestinians who need urgent medical treatment to show you I'm serious about it, but Mr. President, we need a better plan." Trump goes out in the press conference and says, the day before he said,
37:40
"We're building a Riviera." Then he goes out with King Abdullah and says it was just an idea, but I'm going to see first what the other allies do. You spent 250 million
37:47
as a Zionist on this president demanding his loyalty that he does everything that you say. And he ends up flip-fpping over a day just because a king came to him and told him,
37:57
"You're a man of peace who deserves a Nobel Peace Prize." That's the kind of President Donald Trump is. And this is the point. He's not a Zionist and he's not anti-ionist. Donald Trump is with whoever
38:07
can give him the best deal that makes him look the best. Give him a deal that makes him look like a
38:12
peacemaker. He'll go for it. Syria, Ahmed, this is the fine example I'll give even though there are many examples you can give. Ahmed comes to power. A man who once upon a time said, "I am
38:21
with al-Qaeda. He goes and he gets into Damascus as a result of Turkeykey's relentless support and
38:27
a sort of aligning of the stars with the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israelis." And we talked about in a different podcast. People can go back to it and find it on thinking Muslim.
38:36
Ahmed gets into power and the Israelis scream as do Democrats and as do all other people say
38:43
that al-Qaeda has won in Damascus. The Israelis they say this is a disaster for us that Ahmed is
38:49
in Damascus. We preferred Bashar al-Assad. Mr. President, we need to go into southern Syria and
38:55
we need to get rid of this new regime in Damascus and take over it. Erdogan Haken Fidan goes and
39:00
meets Marco Rubio in Washington. Mr. President Marco Rubio, how much money did you guys spend
39:06
in Afghanistan? Way too much. How much money did you spend in Iraq? Way too much. How much money
39:11
are you willing to spend on another war? Not a single cent. Not a single dime. Why on earth when
39:16
Syria now has the potential for stability? We can keep this guy calm. We can keep this guy and keep
39:23
the stability. We can send in our troops to help to preserve it. And we're a NATO ally. Mr. Trump,
39:29
when everybody abandoned you in 2020, we didn't abandon you. We stuck with you. We hated Sleepy Joe as much as you hated Sleepy Joe. Yes, you did. We're your allies. Yes. So, Mr. President,
39:38
these Israelis, they're going to cause such chaos in Syria. You'll never be able to leave. We have a good plan to help you with regards to it. Trump says, "I like it. This is a good
39:48
deal. Go for it." Netanyahu flies and says, "Don't listen to Erdogan." And Trump says to Netanyahu,
39:53
"But he's keeping the peace. Syria is still united one year on. Syria is not disintegrating. I don't
39:59
see ISIS and al-Qaeda like in in in Syria the way that you said they were going to come. This guy has been able to keep the peace. That's the kind of President Donald Trump is. It's not that he's a
40:08
good president or a bad president. It's that Biden whenever Erdogan would speak to him, Biden said,
40:13
"This guy is Islamist. I need to get rid of him." Biden said in the 2020 election campaign that we
40:19
need to support the Turkish opposition to get rid of Erdogan. He did not even entertain the
40:24
prospect that Erdugan might be a viable ally in the Middle East to help him to preserve
40:30
stability. Why? Because Erdogan praised an ayah Sophia and Kilich Daru praised with his shoes on
40:36
praise with his shoes on on the prayer man. He prefers secular kilu. It's an ideological thing. Biden Biden put his ideology over the American national interest in his dealings with Erdogan.
40:46
Trump says, "Give me the best deal." And that I'm not saying that this is an opportunity for good or
40:52
the like. What I'm saying is that it means that no matter how much money you pour into Donald Trump,
41:00
just as the UAE poured millions into Muhammad bin Salman, you offend him and he will destroy
41:07
10 years of UAE policy in Yemen in 5 days the way that Muhammad bin Salman has done over the past week. You offend Donald Trump. He'll break all of that Zionist plan that you wanted to do in Gaza.
41:17
One final example. I promise you a final one. Trump presented a 21point peace plan. That was a
41:24
horrible peace plan. But Erdogan understood Donald Trump. He understood that Donald Trump is not a
41:30
stickler for details. Trump wants a plan that will help to keep the peace with regards to Gaza. So
41:37
Erdogan and Kataris, they told the Palestinians, accept the 21point peace plan. we can negotiate
41:42
off. They said, "But it involves disarmament, but it involves this." They said, "Trust us. We know Donald Trump." Donald Trump just wants stability and peace in the region. I'm not
41:51
there's a difference between a just peace and an unjust peace. Ali Begovich in his book inescapable questions has a lengthy discussion about this in particular about the just peace and unjust peace.
42:00
Trump wants peace even if it is unjust. But that's beside the point right now. When they accepted the
42:05
deal, Israel was stunned. Why are they accepting this deal when it involves disarmament? because they understood that Donald Trump later when he was asked about disarmament he said we don't
42:13
need to rush it he goes it's going to take time we know it's going to take time there's so much and the Israeli said wait a minute why are you guys speaking as if you're defending the Palestinians
42:22
the point here is what kind of president was Biden Biden was what the Zionists say I do
42:27
when they tell me jump I say how high why because I am a Zionist and I believe that everyone should be a Zionist he was a candidate that took arguably the most money from Apac across his entire career
42:38
Donald Trump is like, "Well, you're giving me 250 million, but the kataris are and the Saudis and the UAE and Dubai looks lovely and the riv looks amazing and they gave me red carpet treatment."
42:49
There is a very interesting report. I promise this is the final point. There's a very funny report. I think this summarizes Donald Trump. So when they were negotiating with the Taliban to withdraw from
42:58
Afghanistan, right? So all of the American, you know, war neocons were saying and the Democrats, they saying we shouldn't leave Afghanistan. We should stay there. We should keep colonizing it,
43:06
etc. and Donald Trump was assistant that they need to leave. So when they're about to finish the deal, I'll find the report. I'll send it to you. Maybe you can send it to your
43:14
subscribers. So the the report is that Trump is on a plane flying back to the to the to the White
43:21
House. And one of the advisers says to him, "Mr. President, you know, this could be a disaster if
43:27
we leave Afghanistan." And Donald Trump apparently responded to him and said to him, "But did you see the way they called me your excellency?" That's the kind of president that you're dealing with.
43:36
And that's why I think that it's not that I think Trump will be good for these issues. It's that
43:42
there's something refreshing within this very dark world. Refreshing that the forces of evil
43:50
in Tel Aviv are now just like us uncertain about what's going to happen next. Give me that over the
43:57
certainty that the previous regimes offered. Is there a a way to understand the strategy of the
Trump’s foreign policy
44:02
Trump administration even if there is a lack of a strategy? I mean, I'm I'm referring maybe to the
44:08
national security strategy that was published uh late last year which looked at um America's new
44:16
relationship. He called it an America first foreign policy with the Western Hemisphere,
44:21
with the Middle East, you know, to shore up the the dictators and the authoritarians, with China,
44:27
with Russia and and was a little bit about Africa. I mean, how how um can we understand Trump's
44:35
foreign policy in a sort of joined up way or I get from way the way you're describing Trump um it's
44:44
day by day. There is really no central strategy here despite what's put down on a piece of paper.
44:49
I think that first and foremost my belief is that politics is a science of human relations more than
44:55
anything else. It's the same way that the human being feels happiness, sadness, concern, pressure
45:00
and the like. States feel the same way. And this is why I think that sometimes we focus a lot on policies and the like. But when something happens that doesn't align with the policy, you will get
45:09
confused. How could this happen when this was the policy? It's because politics is human first and foremost. Yeah. I think what we can understand from Donald Trump's policy is that as opposed
45:19
to running the state like a bureaucracy, he runs it like a monarchy. So whereas for example under
45:25
previous administrations you dealt with the state department, you dealt with the homeland security etc. It doesn't matter what report comes out from the national security agency. I would if
45:37
gambling was halal, I would say that Donald Trump probably didn't even read the report.
45:43
And I think that if somebody tried to implement the report, the way the Trump administration works
45:48
is you fly to Malagago the way Kanye West did and and others and you tell Donald Trump that this is
45:57
a tragedy what's happening and we know this is something you wouldn't do and Donald Trump then orders a change in the report or orders a change in personnel or sacks a chief of staff or sacks
46:07
you know this adviser here and there and brings somebody else in a very way that kings used to do in the past. I think that Donald Trump's policy is governed by establishing a very clear interest for
46:17
the Americans. Show me the benefit for me here. I don't think necessarily I don't buy the assumption
46:22
that Donald Trump is necessarily a fool. I think that for example, when you look at the his trade
46:28
war with China, I think he's identified a very genuine threat with regards to where the future
46:33
is going. given that the rare earths and what China does in terms of extracting those rare earth materials being not obliged. One of the reasons why Trump despises the COP 23 agreement about the
46:43
carbon emissions is the the China's superiority in rare earths is because it far exceeds the limits
46:50
that the COP 23 imposes on carbon emissions. So it constantly pumps with the carbon emissions to
46:55
extract raw materials that puts it at an advantage economically and competitively as opposed to Europe and the Americans and China benefits from it. Trump says, "Listen,
47:04
I get you guys want to save the planet, but China here is going to conquer all of us unless we do something." There is a logic behind the madness, even though sometimes perhaps there could be
47:12
madness there as well. The reason why I say is that I think that Donald Trump, everyone is trying to look for certainty where there is uncertainty. Everybody's trying to look for consistency where
47:22
there is an inconsistency. And I think that it reflects the nature of man in that everybody wants to say that there is something certain. In fact, there's almost a metaphysical aspect of it.
47:31
Everybody wants to know whether there is a god or whether there isn't a god. They want to know what happens after you die. Nobody likes to live in that sense of uncertainty and it applies to that
47:38
politics as well. I know that sounds like a vague answer. But the reason why I think that it's hard to gauge a general policy with regards to Donald Trump is because Donald Trump has a propensity to
47:49
adopt policies that benefit him personally. For example, Israel hit DHA. Usually when the Houthis
47:57
hit Saudi Arabia, when in 2019 when the Houthis hit the oil facility and the Saudis were expecting
48:03
the Americans to intervene, to go and bomb Yemen to punish the Houthis as part of the security pack
48:08
that America has with the Saudis, Trump looked Trump was in power. Trump looked at the situation
48:14
and said, "What is my benefit of going to bomb Yemen on the on behalf of the Saudis? Like why
48:19
would I do it? Like what is my my benefit in it?" And as a result, he did absolutely nothing. and the Saudis got upset and Trump essentially said, "Well, there's not much you can do about it.
48:27
Listen, it's regrettable, but you know, Yemen is an issue that you guys have to deal with. I don't see why I have to get involved in Yemen." Mhm. Contrast that to when Dha got hit by the Israelis.
48:36
Doha with whom Eric Trump has significant business dealings with where Eric Trump who's overlooking
48:43
the Trump ad Trump's you know financial dealings is planning to open hotel planning to open a golf
48:49
course you know has a lot of transaction relation with Alani Trump immediately goes to the Israelis
48:56
and tell them listen not only what you did was wrong I want you to call the and I want you to
49:01
apologize to him and not only that because you're getting out of hand I'm going to go and start pushing for a ceasefire as well. It's what made Trump move with in a way he did not move
49:10
with Saudi Arabia. According to American national interest, you should protect both because Saudi
49:15
has a lot of benefits with the Americans. But you didn't because Trump didn't see a personal incentive here with the Saudis. Which is why Bil Salman is offering $1 trillion to say, "Listen,
49:24
I'll give you a personal incentive. Just have my back, please." And Donald Trump is saying, you know, this is really good. You know, he offered me 500 600 billion. I told him make it a Sorry. He
49:32
offered me five I told him 500 billion. He offered me 600. No 500 billion I said to him he said I'll
49:39
give you 600 billion then he made it one trillion some something like that is it five six anyway that's irrelevant the point is saying if I give him a personal interest then he'll look after me
49:50
how do you if you're a political science student who's been taught that politics is all about isms
49:57
and isms and the constructivism and this ism and this neot where does Trump fit into it Trump only
50:03
makes sense if you appreciate that politics is human and that he makes decisions based on that.
50:09
The Epstein files made him go from this direction to the other direction. Made him fall out with
50:14
Marjgery Taylor Green who was his most important ally. That's not something with regards to policy. That's a very personal thing. And I think that's the advantage that Erdogan has over Netanyahu.
50:24
Netanyahu has dealt with the American state. Apac funds Democrats and Republicans. Apac pushes
50:30
candidates in all of those state institutions. Apac pushes officials in the state department in the national security association in all these other different play in the department
50:38
of homeland security but dealing with a character that can trump all of those institutional basis
50:45
that's the advantage Erdogan has Erdogan doesn't need to lobby state institutions the way he had to do under Biden or Obama and the like you can go straight to the king in Malago and you
50:55
can flip all of that policy do you want to call it Trumpism maybe that's what universities will
51:00
call it in future in order to get more fees from extort more fees from students thinking.
Subscribe to our Dubbing channels
51:16
I've got some really exciting news for you. My guests and I now speak udu, Arabic, and French
51:21
with the help of AI, of course. We aim to reach a larger audience and hope to dub our archive and
51:27
new programs into these languages. I need you to subscribe to these channels and help spread the
51:34
word. If you want to help this project, please consider making a donation or becoming a member.
51:44
Um, can we turn to uh Saudi UAE tensions in in the in Yemen and in particular in southern Yemen? Now,
51:50
as we speak, uh Saudi forces are bombing positions in the SDC controlled uh region of of Yemen. This
Saudi and UAE tensions
51:58
is a region that the UAE has in effect set up with its proxy uh forces and over the last couple
52:05
of weeks there have been some really um uh overt tension I suppose between the Saudis and the UEE.
52:11
There was a bombing of supply lines at a port uh in Yemen and um uh we've seen uh stronger
52:18
language coming from the Saudis towards the UAE. Historically, when there were tensions, the UAE
52:25
was not explicitly mentioned, it seemed to me, but now it's sort of bowled out into into the public.
52:30
The UAE has at least publicly said that it's removing its forces from the southern part of of
52:37
Yemen. But there seems to be an allout conflict uh if that's not a stronger word strong word between
52:43
the Saudis Muhammad bin Salman and Muhammad bin Zed. Um, is that a fair characterization? What's
52:50
happening between the two countries? Now, the dynamics that underpin the relationship between bin Salman and Bed have changed significantly. If we're talking about what happened in Yemen,
53:00
now there is a province called, very famous province, even Islamically, historically,
53:06
very famous province. The Saudis in Yemen have traditionally been unsure what they want in Yemen.
53:13
Yeah. Do they want the internationally recognized government to be put into power? They are hesitant
53:20
because the most dominant force is the Islam and the Islam are considered by the Saudi by the Saudi government to be Muslim Brotherhood. But they remain significant. They were the number two
53:30
power in during the Abdah. Yeah. Do they want Yemen to be split in two, which is the historic
53:37
Saudi position, but the Southern Transitional Council is closer to UAE than it is to Saudi. So, we're not keen on that either at the moment. Do we make a deal with the Houthis the way we've made
53:47
deals with the Houthis in the past in 2009 and before, but the Houthis have reneged on it and they're too close to the Iranians. So, the Saudis have been left and sorted this no man's land where
53:55
they want no party to win. They bombed the forces of the internationally recognized government when they tried to take Aden in 2019. Then they bombed the Houthis and now they're bombing
54:04
the southern traditional council. So every party can claim to have been bombed by the Saudis at one particular point. That reflects their paralysis and confusion about what it is that they want in
54:13
Yemen. The UAE have always been clear about what they want in Yemen and the region and beyond,
54:20
which is the Arab Spring demonstrated that the people want freedom and want the freedom
54:27
to reflect their aspirations at the ballot box to choose their leaders. And the UAE is saying over my dead body will I allow any freedom in the Arab world. You will obey the dictators and obey
54:36
the brutal dictators. And the UAE is funding genocide in Sudan to prevent the Sudinis from choosing their leaders because they're worried the Sunnis will choose Islamist Muslim leaders.
54:44
They're bombing in they're supporting Haftar in Libya because they're worried that elections will also deliver some sort of Islamicleaning trends and the like. And they're also in different places
54:53
trying to scupper and they were leading force in supporting the coup in Tunisia as well to crush that democratic transition as well. So U has been absolutely clear what we want in Yemen is we want
55:03
to split Yemen in two. We want a dictatorship in the south and we don't mind dealing with the Houthis because we have our own relation with Iran that we've done in the past. The Saudis
55:12
in 2017 2018 were aligned with the UAE for two reasons. One, they agreed about the threat of
55:18
the Arab Spring. They were concerned that the Kataris through Al Jazzer were bringing the Arab Spring towards those Gulf monarchies. There might be protest. Saudis might complain about the
55:26
economic crisis and therefore they might protest against the regime and therefore they were natural allies with one another. Bin Salman in particular needed the UAE because after the the killing of
55:36
Jamal Kashogji at the Saudi embassy in Turkey, he became considered international pariah. He was at
55:42
odds with Erdogan in open conflict with Erdogan, open conflict with Qatar which had an incredible media lobby with El Jazzer and the like. The they had tensions with with Europe and the like.
55:53
Binsman needed the UAE to market him in Washington and in western capitals. Bin Salman couldn't go to
55:59
Washington because he became a pariah. He needed the UAE to counter the Qatar lobby and these others who are lobbying against him in Washington. He needed the UAE to spend its money to go and say
56:09
bil Salman is the ruler that you need in order to bring about a deislimization in Saudi Arabia to
56:14
counter extremism to counter terrorism and all this other thing. Without the UAE, bin Salman feared that he would be removed and some of the family members that he put in prison would
56:24
be restored to power who once upon a time enjoyed the favor of the Americans like Muhammad bin Naif, etc. Fast forward to today, Erdugan and bin Salman are now friends. They're no longer fighting with
56:35
one another. They've reconciled with each other completely. Just today, as we're walking in, they're now discussing naval coordination drills and military drills and also access to Turkish
56:43
weaponry and they are becoming very close to one another. Bins men and katar have reconciled and bins men unilaterally reconciled with the kataris without consulting the UAE when Biden
56:52
administration came when Biden won the election. Saudi reconciled with and since then the kataris have fully invested in the relationship. The media doesn't mention any criticism of
57:00
Muhammad bin Salman. They've kept the peace with Muhammad bin Salman. They've kept their side of the agreement. They are also very close. Iran has lost Syria. It's lost in Lebanon. It's been
57:10
battered its proxies in various different areas. Iran is reeling. It's trying to lick its wounds. It doesn't have the ability to press the way it pressed before. Before you had
57:18
Saudi Arabia surrounded by Iran's proxies. Iran's proxies are unprecedentedly weak,
57:24
including the Houthis in Yemen. Iran no longer poses the threat that it once did either. So
57:29
now bin Salman suddenly now has breathing room. Before he needed the UAE to market him through
57:34
the Israelis in Washington and the like. But now Bin Salman has his own relationship with the Israelis. He has billions of dollars, more than $50 billion investments with Jared Kushner.
57:43
He's investing in the Israeli economy. He has his own talks now with the Israelis. The Israelis are
57:48
now courting him separately from the UAE to try to push him to normalization of ties and they're talking to him directly. More importantly, Bin Salman can now go to Washington again
57:58
because Donald Trump is in power with his recent visit that he did a month ago or two months ago. He's now back in Washington. He's being rehabilitated between quotation marks,
58:07
being welcomed by the US president. He's being greeted by these world powers again. Bin Salman is
58:13
no longer as dependent on the UAE as he once was. Meaning when it comes now to Yemen, bin Salman,
58:20
the STC tried to take Hadramot in 2023. The STC, the Southern Transitional Council are the remnants
58:29
or or those who believe that Yemen should be split into two again. It was split into two before, then it united and became one country. Now they want to split it again. The Southern Transitional
58:39
Council took advantage of Saudi's uncertainty about what it wanted to achieve and you it was
58:44
armed and equipped by the UAE. They seized the capital. They took they took and these areas in
58:50
the south and they had no interest in going to the north. They said that's nothing to do with us. You guys can handle the Houthis. But they're aware that although they have some resources has
59:01
a lot of resources they have to take. In 2023 they tried to take Hadramot. The Saudis feared that if
59:07
they take Hadramot they will declare a separate state and they are not ready to handle a separate state. Moreover, Saudi wants an oil pipeline that goes through Hadramot to the port of Mukala and
59:17
from Mukala it helps to bypass any issues in the Red Sea. It can go through Yemen and it can go. So if the hummus is blocked and if the red sea the the burban mandep is blocked on the red sea where
59:27
you have jihuti and somali land and these areas if hummus where and if Iran blocks hmm and you have
59:34
the red sea here which is blocked at least you can send the oil through down to mala and you're able to get into the red sea you're able to get out so Saudi said I don't want the STC taking this
59:42
area I have my own allies my own parties that I back they're in charge of don't touch them the
59:49
southern separatists encouraged by Abu Dhabi said, "Don't listen to bin Salman. Go towards
59:55
Haramote." Believing that bin Salman wouldn't say no to the UAE. When they got towards Hav started
1:00:03
taking areas, bin Salman responded aggressively by setting up a unit that was called Alwatan.
1:00:08
Dwatan means national shield. This national shield was composed of local tribes and local forces. It became the force and bin Salman said to the southern transitional council, "You need
1:00:17
to go back to Aden." And the UEE said, "Don't push him too hard. Go back to Aden. will take another opportunity. The UAE now given the impunity that it enjoys in Sudan, the impunity it enjoys in
1:00:28
Libya, the impunity it's been enjoying following its normalization of ties with the Israelis,
1:00:33
the impunity in the way that it secured the port of Barbara in Somali land, the way that it is now
1:00:39
seeing its ambition of controlling those Red Sea ports by making deals with Ethiopia and making
1:00:44
deals with itria and now competing in Somalia with the Turks and now believing itself to be this
1:00:50
Veniceesque power that is now the supreme power in the region. The UAE believed there was nothing bin
1:00:56
Salman could do. Now let's force the separation and finally rewrite the map as we wish. So the UAE
1:01:02
encouraged the southern separatists and said now's your time. Go for Hadramot and go and take it. The southern separatist went towards Hadramot and very quickly started taking area after area after area
1:01:12
and even announced a change in the governor of Hadramot from the Saudi appointed governor to the
1:01:18
UAE STC appointed governor. Saudi initially said we urge the STC forces to withdraw. Then it was we
1:01:27
urge the powers behind STC to restrain them. We urge our brotherly neighbor to help us to
1:01:35
get the STC. And bin Zed is convinced Bman won't do anything because even if bin Salman is getting close to Erdogan, he's not going to trustw he's not going to trust the Kataris and the like.
1:01:44
Then surprising everybody, including the Yemenes, bin Salman bombs the areas around the STC troops,
1:01:53
killing none of them, telling them, "I will bomb you. Back off and go back to I'm not against you,
1:01:59
but this is a red line. Back off." The Imirati said he's bluffing. Go. They went into and
1:02:07
then the statement came out calling UAE out directly. Then bin Salman bombed the Mala port,
1:02:13
bombed two ships there that he said openly or the Saudi statement said UAE was sending weapons
1:02:18
and then Saudi media flipped overnight. Suddenly UAE is the exporter of radicalism. Everything it
1:02:27
accused Iran of of Iran supporting proxies. The same language was now being applied to the UAE.
1:02:32
The UAE believing itself greater than Saudi Arabia, believing that bin Salman was weak, responded and started accusing bin Salman of being pro-Iwan, pro- al-Qaeda, terrorist,
1:02:42
etc. and the like. And now the media started going against one another because the UAE pundits and
1:02:49
UAE believed that on the ground we're stronger than Saudi. Bin Salman might bomb, but our proxies
1:02:54
are stronger. The proof is that after Saudi bomb mukla, the leader of the southern transitional
1:02:59
council, the leader of southern separatist went on television and said, "We announce a constitutional
1:03:05
declaration in two years. We're going to hold a referendum and we're going to have a separate state." Essentially, the UAE was saying to Saudi, in Arabic, we have a word to which means go to
1:03:13
hell. They were saying to the Saudis, "Forget you. I'm not interested in what you say. We're going
1:03:21
to do an individual separate state and there's nothing you can do about it. The UAE had made
1:03:27
the statement that we're withdrawing, but the UAE said we'll withdraw so we'll give the, you know, sort of a public, you know, bait, but our proxies can can announce independence. As soon as the
1:03:36
STC announced it, Saudi Arabia began bombing the STC directly. And then the Saudis said, "Listen,
1:03:43
we're going to give a chance to the Southern Transitional Council because again, Saudi doesn't know what it wants. Do we want the Houthies? Do we want the Isla Recognized government? Do we
1:03:52
want STC?" Saudi hasn't decided what it wants in Yemen. What it knows that it doesn't want, it doesn't want one party to be supreme yet until it decides what it wants to do. So
1:04:00
Saudi says to the Southern Transitional Council, I'm holding a meeting in RiyAV. I want you all,
1:04:06
every party to attend this meeting in Riyad. This was two days ago from the time of this recording.
1:04:12
the head of the STCI understands what's going to happen to him at this meeting in
1:04:18
Riyad because when the Saudis were concerned about the international recognized government,
1:04:23
they invited the recognized government to Riyad and then put the president under house arrest and then forced him to abdicate in favor of a presidential council. When Sad Hari failed the
1:04:33
Saudis in Lebanon, the Saudis invited Sadhari to Riyad and they put him under house arrest. lavish
1:04:39
house arrest but they put him under house arrest zubedi when he refused in 2021 or 2020 to sign
1:04:46
the riyav agreement the Saudis had put him under house arrest for 4 months in riyav until he signed
1:04:51
the agreement and they allowed him to go home knew if he goes to riav most likely he's going to be in
1:04:58
prison but he can't say no to the Saudi invitation why because if he says no to the Saudi invitation
1:05:03
he invites the Saudi aggression against the southern transitional council soi tries supposed
1:05:09
to hold the stick from the middle. Zubed says he's supposed to board the plane. He says, "I won't go,
1:05:15
but I'll send a 50-man delegation to go to Riyad." But simultaneously, he starts moving his forces to
1:05:23
Valer to form a front to prevent the Saudi backed forces of the National Shield from coming towards
1:05:29
Aden because bin Salman now wants to assert himself in Aden. So, they're coming down towards Aden. He lines up here. The Saudis are so furious with this they start bombing Val and they start
1:05:38
bombing the southern traditional council forces before walking in here. Hani bin Bri and these other like STC individuals based in Abu Dhabi are now accusing Saudi Arabia of treachery. They're
1:05:49
accusing Saudi Arabia having betrayed the cause. But UAE pundits are alternating between attacking the Saudis and between saying UAE is withdrawing. You guys can handle it. We're going to leave a
1:05:58
vacuum in that regard. But this has been nothing short of an extraordinary reversal from the UAE.
1:06:04
UAE has seen 10 years of construction of a proxy in Yemen undone in 5 days by Muhammad bin Salman.
1:06:13
UAE has seen a 10-year project in Yemen collapsed in 5 days by the whims of Muhammad bin Salman.
1:06:20
UAE overreached against Muhammad bin Salman and with one stroke of a hand he has essentially
1:06:27
removed that UAE influence and now his forces are bearing down in Adan and just before entering it seems a statement has been made that a curfew is now imposed in Adan and some of's forces
1:06:37
are handing over their weapons fearing a Saudi Arabia onslaught in that regard. This divorce
1:06:44
between Saudi Arabia and the UEI has repercussions elsewhere. It remains unclear whether this will
1:06:49
spill over into Somalia, Somali land with to spill over with the relation with Turkey and the like. Erdogan certainly seems excited by this prospect in terms of pushing as does probably most of the
1:06:58
region including Egypt because that's a question I want to ask if I may. Um does this show I mean
Yemen
1:07:03
it's pretty impressive you know in inverted commas and we don't normally say that about Muhammad bin Salman but that there's some impressive sort of strategic thinking here about about about Yemen.
1:07:14
Uh I'm not saying it's a positive thing, but it, you know, it's impressive from a foreign policy perspective. Uh but does this show a a tactical shift on behalf of MBS, a realignment possibly in
1:07:26
the Middle East? Of course, the UAE has been the most problematic state, especially when it comes to relationships with Israel in in the Middle East. Uh or do you feel that it's less tactical,
1:07:37
it's less long-term? You know, it is very much about Yemen and about overreach at this moment.
1:07:44
by the MBZ, by UAE. In 2021, when UAE normalized with the Israelis, Abdalik Abdah,
1:07:50
who is a prominent academic based in the UAE, who we people tend to consider the unofficial
1:07:55
spokesman of the UAE government, said that this normalization will change the geopolitical dynamics in the region indicating it will come at the expense of Saudi Arabia, which he's itself as
1:08:05
a big brother. It's important to understand why Muhammad bin Zed supported Muhammad bin Salman.
1:08:11
Put yourself in Bin Zed's position. Ben Zed rules a small state of seven or eight emirates, the
1:08:18
United Arab Emirates. Historically, Saudi because of its geographic size, because of its wealth,
1:08:25
because of its oil, what Saudi says goes. Yes, the smaller states have a say. Saudi Arabia has that
1:08:31
bedin tradition of hearing everybody's opinion, but ultimately if Saudi wants to have something done, Saudi has its way. For an ambitious prince like Muhammad bin Zed, especially after the Arab
1:08:44
Spring, it's unacceptable that that Saudi Arabia should have that kind of weight. So bin Zed's
1:08:50
gamble on bin Salman was not that bin Salman would build a strong Saudi, but that bin Salman
1:08:56
would be so incompetent he would break the power of Saudi Arabia that Saudi Arabia used to leverage
1:09:01
against the smaller states. that Muhammad bin Naif would be problematic because you'd have an independent Saudi that wouldn't necessarily care about what UAE considers and would expect UAE to
1:09:11
follow you know the idea of the big brother there is a just to give you an anecdote even though they're bad forms back when I could go to Saudi I went to visit the how long ago was
1:09:20
that this is like 2012 2013 I can't remember but anyway it seems like you may be going to
1:09:26
Saudi soon in only Allah knows Allah will know when I misgu Inshallah. But anyway, so the I was
1:09:33
in Riyad and a representative from one of the ministries was showing me around and he took me
1:09:39
to the King Abdaziz Museum. I've told the story in the Raven podcast, but now mah you have much more followers. We'll repeat the story. So that's taking me back Raven. So we went to the King Abdaz
1:09:49
Museum. So my my host he takes me. So my host is this former you know like colonel sergeant
1:09:55
you know very like you know. So we get to this picture and there is a picture and he tells me
1:10:03
look. So I look it's a picture of King Abdaziz with a then of Bahin. Okay cool. I've read
1:10:11
Muhammad Assad's book. He's very glowing about King Abdaziz. I like his description of him. I have an affinity towards King Abdaziz. I like the stories about him. I appreciate his limitations
1:10:21
but yeah nice picture. Okay. Yeah. He goes, "But look what do you notice about the picture." I hate
1:10:27
museums. So I was like, "I don't know. It's mashallah." No, look. Look. What do you want
1:10:35
me to say? Allah. No. What do you notice about the way they're sitting? I don't know. They're
1:10:42
they're brothers. No. Their of Bahin is sitting lower than King Abdiz. Because of in Saudi Arabia,
1:10:50
we are the big brother of the region. Mhm. Bin Zed hated this attitude that Al saw themselves
1:10:56
as the big brother of the region. So bin Zed's gamble on bin Salman was if I put this video game
1:11:02
playing young prince who's ambitious, has little vision and put him on top, he'll smash the family
1:11:08
for me and because I'm the mentor, we'll be equals and possibly even I'll be on top because the only
1:11:14
way he can maintain power given he's not in the line of succession is he will need to trample in the family. He'll need external support. He has problems with Qatar. He has problems with Turkey.
1:11:23
I'm the only source he will have. I will be able to run Saudi Arabia by proxy. Bin Salman was never
1:11:28
supposed to rebel against the mentor. And this is the reason why I make this point in that the UEE now doesn't know what to do with Muhammad bin Salman. Do we counter him? Do we have the leverage
1:11:38
to counter Muhammad bin Salman? Because he just met with Donald Trump. He's going to give him $1 trillion. He's got good ties with Jared Kushner. His ties with the Israelis is relatively decent.
1:11:49
But even the Saudis now are now attacking the UE and bins man because he's a pragmatist might even put hands with Erdogan and with the Kataris. There's a very interesting Saudi account that said
1:11:58
we should know now the the reality of the UAE and they did a video of bin Zed hugging Y laid saying
1:12:04
these are their brothers. You know they almost as if now they're using the normalization as a slur as opposed to Saudi before and they said we had to normalize and this is the future of the region.
1:12:12
The reason why I'm making this particular point is this how far bin Salman goes remains to be
1:12:19
seen because binsman's entire reign has been about putting out fires and navigating fires.
1:12:25
Bin Salman hasn't had the space to pursue a particular vision. Vision 2030 is not going very well. He's not getting the investment that he wants. He's been wrestling with the UAE. UAE
1:12:34
has even been trying to take land from the Saudis in terms of redrawing the maps and the like the way he tries to take Muslim from Oman as well. The Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman if
1:12:42
you put yourself in his position UAE lobbyed for international recognition and they got it for you.
1:12:50
UAE lobbyed for or helped to facilitate your ties with the Israelis which helped you in the Kashog G
1:12:56
affair. UAE helped to market you as this visionary young prince and certainly some people now because
1:13:05
you're bringing Nicki Minaj and Kard and and these others. Nicki Minaj refused the invitation but I
1:13:10
think Kard was there recently and Ielia and then these others but I don't follow so close in any in any case he introduced him to me but anyway because now we're bringing now I'm being seen
1:13:19
as somebody who's new and ti is helping me with that the head of the entertainment authority but
1:13:24
do I really want to put my hand with Erdogan who has very Islamist tendencies that my population
1:13:33
resonate with and I go back to square one which is the whole problem with the Arab Spring was that everybody who said Islam should be political and should play a role in politics resonated
1:13:42
with the Saudi population that might give them aspirations to get rid of me as a crown prince and implement somebody else. Do I really put my hand with Erdogan? Do I really put my hand with
1:13:51
the Kataris who only made peace with me after they had suffered reversals in Egypt and Tunisia
1:13:58
and these other places as well. So am I going to go from the UAE and go towards Turkey and the Kataris? Is there a way I can forge my own path like over here? And if I forge my own path,
1:14:08
what does that mean? I still don't know what I want in Yemen. I still don't know how to handle Iraq. The Iranian proxies are still there. Iran may be weak now, but I still don't know what to
1:14:15
do with that in that regard. Ahmed, I don't know what to make of him. The Israelis could kidnap him the way that they kidnap Maduro and I could be back to square one and like what do I do with
1:14:23
regards to Syria? Bin Salman still hasn't decided exactly what he wants to do in that regard. And I think that confusion is what remains to be seen whether he will make up with the UAE again or
1:14:31
whether this is the start of genuinely a change in Muhammad Salman whereby he says you know what now I'm in a better position let me actually see how far I can go with this and I think if I'm being
1:14:41
brutally honest the Arab Muslim world and beyond are desperately hoping that this is a permanent
1:14:47
divorce and that bin Salman somehow can alter his course and go towards a different trajectory. So
Realignment of MBS?
1:14:53
Sami, I mean I that's a really important uh answer and I I I want to ask you about Muhammad bin
1:15:00
Salman and his motivations here because of course Muhammad bin Salman uh for a long time we've we've
1:15:06
referred to him as a pretty malign leader when it comes to the Muslim world in the Middle East. But here we've got Muhammad bin Salman acting against the interests of the UAE in Yemen. And um I
1:15:18
suppose my question is uh to what extent is this a realignment of Muhammad bin Salman? To what extent
1:15:25
is Muhammad bin Salman moved away from the sort of the previous self and now engaging with Turkey and
1:15:32
Qatar and and engaging with forces that may be a little bit better aligned in the Middle East than
1:15:37
previously? I suppose is there a a reassessment we need to make at this stage of of MBS? uh because
1:15:44
of course um MBZ has acted in a very malign way in the Middle East until now and in particular in
1:15:51
Sudan. uh so how should we understand bin Salman's move here? So I I think in this context when you
1:15:58
look at the way that Muhammad bin Salah now is so deeply offended by the UAE and now has the breathing space to be able to say I don't need the UAE like I used to. I'm not this incompetent
1:16:08
prince that you thought that I was. I'm not your proxy in Ryav to destroy the kingdom or to make it
1:16:15
some sort of, you know, eighth or ninth emirate of the United Arab Emirates. The reality is that bin Z doesn't know what to do with a crown prince who's now asserting himself and actually
1:16:25
entertaining the idea of going on a trend that is that is not just different from the UAE, but
1:16:32
completely counter to the UAE. Muhammad bin Salman sent his foreign minister on the same day that he
1:16:37
bombs the STC. On the same day that he completely decimates UAE's investment in Yemen, the Saudi
1:16:44
crown prince sends his foreign minister to Marco Rubio in Washington to sit with Marco Rubio and in my opinion to explain to Marco Rubio that the threat now in the region is the United Arab
1:16:55
Emirates. This Abu Dhabi capital, this Muhammad bin Zed is starting to cause issues that you need
1:17:01
to pay attention to. And remember the reason why Marco Rubio is so significant is because Marco Rubio is the individual in Congress who's been coming out the state the the secretary of state of
1:17:11
the state department that he's the one coming out in Congress who's been openly mentioning about the UAE and the crimes that the UAE is doing in Sudan implying that the Americans are aware of what's
1:17:22
happening and perhaps the only thing preventing an American intervention against the UAE may well
1:17:27
be the Israelis and the normalization that they have with the UAE forban to meet Marco Rubio,
1:17:33
the foreign minister of of Saudi Arabia, is almost as if the Saudi crime prince Muhammad bin Salman wants to present his complaints about the UAE to Washington before the UAE can go to Tel Aviv
1:17:44
and ask Tel Aviv to lobby against Muhammad bin Salman in Washington. At the same time, the deputy foreign minister is meeting today with Bhan at the time of our recording on the same
1:17:53
day the Saudis bombing the STC. Meeting with Abd Fat Bhan, the head of the armed forces of Sudan,
1:17:59
the one that the UAE are trying to get rid of by supporting the genocidal militia that's killing in
1:18:04
Sudan. As if Saudi is saying, not only is this going to be limited to Yemen, I'm coming after
1:18:09
you in Sudan. And now the fear that Haftar will have in Libya is is this going to spill over into
1:18:15
Libya whereby Muhammad bin Salman turns around and says I don't actually have an interest in
1:18:21
demolishing the aspirations of the Sudin and the Libyans. This was something that I did with the UAE. It made sense at the time, but times are now different. What if I can revamp my image
1:18:32
from somebody who was seen as the one who wrought destruction on these different states? What if I
1:18:37
as the only power in the region who can reign in the evil of the UAE emerge as a regional leader
1:18:43
that can bring together Erdog bring together the Qataris and Cece in Egypt who is eagerly watching
1:18:49
what's happening between Saudi and the UAE. CC announced that he received quote a fantastic
1:18:55
offer from the UAE to invest in the ports in the Sewish Canal. UAE wants to take 90% control of
1:19:02
the ports in the Sewish Canal. It's not content with controlling only Barbara and NDC. It wants
1:19:07
to control the sewers as well. Egypt rejected the UAE offer suggesting that it's watching who's
1:19:13
going to win between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The point is that this incompetent prince as bin Zed
1:19:19
viewed him. Now there is a potential chance he may actually emerge as an independent regional leader.
1:19:26
not necessarily in a transformed ideological way with regards to the dieselmization stuff that we've talked about before, but a regional leader who is capable of bringing about a
1:19:36
unified stance on some of the particularly heated zones that might actually with a Trump presidency
1:19:42
actually bring about a resolution to it. The question here is whether bin Salman actually has the vision for it. The question is whether bin Salman is as bin Zed imagined him this incompetent
1:19:53
video gaming prince who's just set on ruling this kingdom winning over the Saudi youth by bringing
1:19:58
them parties and the like or whether bin Salman can actually dream of something bigger because the reality is bin Salman finds himself in a very interesting situation whereas before he
1:20:08
was being lambasted as a tyrant. It can safely be said that the overwhelming majority of not
1:20:14
only the Arab world but also the Muslim world and beyond the Muslim including Europe where UAE has been bullying European governments to crack down on what it calls Islamist tendencies
1:20:24
and the like by inviting Tommy Robinson to Abu Dhabi inviting supporting Nigel Farage and these
1:20:30
others. These European governments are eagerly anticipating can bin Salman cut the UAE down to
1:20:36
size can it clip the UAE's wings. Binsen man is on at a crossroads whereby he could potentially
1:20:42
go from being somebody who is derided by the majority in the world to one in which people say hang on a second maybe the young prince is actually starting to become a leader. It remains
1:20:51
to be seen whether bin Salman actually adapts that road. But what is certain is that Ankara,
1:20:57
Cairo and Dha are all gently pushing Muhammad bin Salman telling him bin Salman you don't need to
1:21:03
be a puppet of the UAE bin Salman you don't need to fight all these Islamic tendencies the way the
1:21:08
UAE is fighting Salman there is a scenario where you transform your image from the one who killed
1:21:14
Hashuk Gi to the hero of the Arab and Muslim world by cutting the head of the snake in Abu
1:21:19
Dhabi whereby you bring peace in Sudan where UI has committed genocide. You bring peace in Libya where UEIE has funded a war or to split the country into two. Where you bring peace in Yemen
1:21:28
where the UEI has tried to divide it into two and where you actually managed to bring a security infrastructure between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Because the other dynamic here is this
1:21:39
Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has been trying to get state-of-the-art weapons from the Americans and the Israelis. The Israelis have been saying to him, we don't want we don't trust the
1:21:46
Saudi crown prince with that kind of weapons and technology. When bin Salman tried to go to China, the US bullied bin Salman into canceling those relations with China or those weapons transfer
1:21:56
with regards to China. So he went to Pakistan and said to Pakistan, I want some of that technology
1:22:01
that you used against those Indian planes. And now with Erdogan offering the advanced technology with
1:22:06
those remote fighter jets that Erdogan has built as well, it may well be that binsman who's come
1:22:13
up against the wall in the weapons technology from the US who the Israelis are bullying him
1:22:19
and demanding that he normalize before they give him technology transfer who now finds the Israelis Eddie Cohen on Twitter calling Saudi Arabia treacherous for going against the UAE. Bin Salman
1:22:29
is at a crossroads whereby he has the chance to say that all this stuff I did before didn't
1:22:35
benefit me anything. In the end, the UAE actually thought it was greater than me. Maybe now I should
1:22:41
try a different way. And it may well be that a population that despises bin Salman for what he
1:22:46
did over the past seven years may well remember him as the hero who finally crushed the UAE's
1:22:52
satanic influence that demolished so many Muslim countries just because the UAE believed that
1:22:58
the populations don't deserve freedom. They are destined instead only to obey a dictatorship. Wow.
How to understand this shift
1:23:03
I mean I I alhamdulillah we've been uh doing this for the last three years three years and a bit and
1:23:10
uh I've never really had an answer that has been so amazed I've been so amazed by I mean you know
1:23:15
how how how do we just how do we understand what may happen in the coming in the coming years
1:23:22
because of course until now we've been we've just uh looked at MBS in the same light you know we've
1:23:28
we've seen NBS and MBZ uh as two sides of the same rotten coin um how do we understand these turn of
1:23:36
events I mean like what is it that explains um I'm not talking about the polit politics now
1:23:42
I'm talking about sort of from the metaphysical that we we always come back to on this show how do we understand these turn of events I mean I think there's always been a misunderstanding
1:23:51
of the idea of obey the ruler that people used in order for people to obey a ruler no matter what he does the Muslim when he sees something evil says this is evil it should stop but when
1:24:00
he sees something that brings benefits to the um he says this is good you should do it and you will
1:24:06
have the backing of people whenever you pursue the correct path and a path that brings good to this
1:24:11
um the reality is that from this capital of Abu Dhabi money millions and billions are spent in
1:24:18
order to attack Muslim communities in Europe to attack Muslim communities in America to go
1:24:23
and tear apart Sudan to tear apart Libya to tear apart Somalia where you have a tribe in
1:24:28
the north there's h tribal Somali land now the UAE encouraging to go and normalize with the Israelis
1:24:33
and to tear those Somali tribes apart despite even though they were still remain in a fragile state. UAE is exacerbating that fragility. The UAE which goes and bullies Koala Lumpuro, the UAE
1:24:44
which goes and tries to bully Pakistan and drags Pakistan into a conflict it has no benefit in.
1:24:50
Why did the UAE go to Pakistan and say to Asamun go and give weapons to Haftar? What did a Libyan
1:24:56
do to a Pakistani to the Pakistani regime whereby Asamir comes and gives weapons to Haftar Haftar
1:25:02
who's using it to go and kill the Libyans and establish a dictatorship run by him and his two sons in Libya. What did the Libyan do for Assam to come and bring Pakistan and involve it into the
1:25:11
killing of Muslims at the behest of the UAE? What did the but what did any of these Muslim ummah do to for Pakistan to be dragged in it? Pakistan which used to pride itself on not harming the um
1:25:22
but being a source of pride for the um in terms of trying to advance the um's interest. The reality
1:25:27
is that when you're looking at what's unfolding, I think that when you see something that is good, you should support it and you should back it. This doesn't mean that bin Salman is not doing
1:25:36
stuff that's a madness inside Saudi Arabia. But what if in his security he no longer sees
1:25:41
a threat in Salman and has him released? Is that not something you would celebrate? What if now that he feels more secure, he can finally reveal what happened to Adish? Or maybe
1:25:50
he releases Garni. Or maybe he releases, they said Muhammadi appeared recently, a couple of days ago,
1:25:56
a sign that the UAE interpreted as that bin Salman is opening the door to these trends that he used
1:26:02
to crush in order to indicate that you've pushed me so far. I'm no longer going to keep these doors
1:26:08
closed. I'm going to open them. If bin Salman is going to open those doors and it's going to bring benefit, it's not necessarily that one should support it, even though I think one
1:26:16
should support it, but one should not deny the re the ramifications and repercussions of what
1:26:22
that has on the region itself. The reality is that every Muslim dreams of a Turkish,
1:26:28
Saudi, Pakistani alliance. Everybody dreams of technology transfer between the Muslim world. Everybody dreams of finances between the Muslim countries. A railway that goes from Ankara all the
1:26:37
way to Riyad or Jedda or to Medina and these other place or even to go to Islamabad. I went to Spain
1:26:43
for the past two weeks and I called my father told him baba I'm going to Pharaoh in Portugal. He goes
1:26:48
oh mashallah it's 2 hours from Sevilla. So on my way back I called him and he said to me so how was the border? And I said there's no border. You literally just crossed the bridge. And he went
1:26:56
ah the European Union. Why could should we not encourage things like an open border where you can drive from Islam from Istanbul all the way to Jada with no border checks. You just drive as one
1:27:06
um these are things that if bin Salman said it tomorrow on what pretext would I come on thinking Muslim and say this is a bad thing. And this is why I say that politics is the science of
1:27:15
human relations. The same way that human beings their feelings fluctuate. The same way sentiments
1:27:21
fluctuate the same way world views change as well. Such is the case with states as well.
1:27:27
I'm not saying that bin Salman has had an epiphany. I'm saying that what bin Salman has done in Yemen against the UAE, Yemenes are celebrating. Even those who don't like bin Salman.
1:27:37
That what bin Salman has done to a 10-year UAE project in the space of 5 days is being celebrated
1:27:43
by people who criticize bin Salman for what he does inside Saudi Arabia. Indicating that it's
1:27:48
not a hatred of bin Salman himself. It's a hatred of what is evil and if he does good, he will be
1:27:54
supported in it. And that's why the question that everybody is asking now even in Ankara in Sudan
1:27:59
in Kartum in Medali in in these other places is yeah Muhammad bin Salman you've given us
1:28:06
a reprieve by punching UAE in the nose bin Salman go finish it bin Salman these guys slaughtered us
1:28:14
Salman these guys massacred us Salman these guys gave weapons and massacred us and no one could
1:28:20
do anything about it and here comes bin Salman to punch them in the nose People are saying, "Yeah, bin Salman, is this something new?" And they're hoping that it's something new. It's not to say
1:28:29
that bin Salman has become good. Rather, it's to show that the dynamics have changed. And I think
1:28:34
it will bring benefit to the um if the UAE is isolated and disciplined and restrained and told
1:28:41
that your alliances with Israel and the far right to destroy Muslim communities is not the way that
1:28:46
it should be. And the reality is now in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Oman have far more influence
1:28:51
in terms of influence in Yemen now that Saudi Arabia has pushed the UAE out. Turkey and Saudi
1:28:57
Arabia in Syria have the potential to save that country from falling apart and to rebuild it and
1:29:02
make it into a powerhouse. Gatar and Saudi Arabia have the ability to protect that Gulf region from
1:29:08
external influences and to use their lobbying and financial power for the good of this um the question that you're posing when you say it amazes me. It only amazes somebody who believes
1:29:18
that politics never changes who believes the human condition can never change. Who believes that man was born with an original sin and Toba never exists. I'm not saying Bman is interested
1:29:28
in Toba. I'm saying that when somebody does evil say it is evil but when he does something that is
1:29:34
good don't don't begrudge saying this is actually very good. And I think what bin Salman has done
1:29:40
here is a brilliant strategic maneuver whereby he has demonstrated that the billions that UAE spent
1:29:49
can disappear with the stroke of a hand of the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman showing that what the UAE is building is a spider's web and what we need is leaders to stand up against
1:29:58
that evil. The question is how do you encourage bin Salman to keep doing it? So let's move on to
1:30:04
Somali land. uh Israel recognized, first country in the world to recognize Somali land after decades of acting as in effect a pseudo state. Uh what lay behind uh this announcement by Israel?
1:30:16
I think it's important that when everybody when anybody opens up a map of the ports in the Red Sea region and the Bal Mandab straight you will find that the UAE has invested heavily in the
1:30:28
Barbara port in what is considered Somali land invested heavily in Djibouti invested heavily
1:30:35
in Aden essentially controlling that straight and historically 1500s 1400s 1600s Portuguese
1:30:41
and the Ottomans and all these other empires they fought bloody wars across the world including in India and the light for control of those shipping routes that go through it. The UAE is becoming the
1:30:51
main economic dominant power in that particular region. But the UAE is aware that at any moment Saudi Arabia or some of these bigger powers can undo a lot of that influence. And so they've been
1:31:01
trying to secure some sort of insulation from any possibility of a breakdown in relationship with
1:31:08
Saudi Arabia that might ruin the UAE's project in the Red Sea. Bin Z's conclusion is the best insulation you can get is normalization of ties with the Israelis because according to bin Zed and
1:31:18
in the words of the former Katari prime minister Ahmed bin Jim Israel or Tel Aviv is the key to Congress and the White House. If you win Tel Aviv, you win the White House and Congress and you win
1:31:27
that impunity and the reality is that the UAE has enjoyed that impunity since its normalized ties. In the midst of these tensions that are emerging with Saudi Arabia, even before Yemen,
1:31:36
there were tensions emerging with regards to drawing the maps of the borders. UAE is claiming territory that's currently under Saudi control. Saudi launched a complaint to the United Nations
1:31:44
and the case is ongoing over there. The UAE believe always felt that there was a possibility bin Salman might lash out. Let me threaten him with the Israelis in order to secure Somali
1:31:55
land's willingness to support the UAE and Israel offered normalization of ties with Somali land
1:32:03
and recognition of Somali land. UAE technology it has a base in Hargesa and it's been investing in
1:32:09
Somali land for many years now much to the chagrin of of Somalia itself UAE believe that Somalia and
1:32:14
Mogadishu is closer to Turkey and therefore it's investing in Somali land or it's wrestling with Turkey in Somalia in any case Somali land denies that it's the recognition from Israel is dependent
1:32:26
upon taking in the Palestinians but it's hard to imagine Israel offering recognition to Somali land without anything in return. Israel is trying to find any state that's willing to take in the
1:32:34
Palestinians and the report suggests that Somali land agreed to take in 1.5 million Palestinians.
1:32:40
The tragedy of the situation is that the reason Somali land was able to secure that recognition
1:32:48
from the Israelis is because of an environment whereby the fabric of society between the Somali
1:32:55
tribes has been so broken as a result of decades of oppression and infighting that Israel and UAE
1:33:02
were able to capitalize on that particular tribalism. Because it's important to remember that those who inhabit the current territory of Somali land which historically was the Adelite
1:33:10
kingdom which used to be supported by the Ottoman Empire which actually almost conquered Ethiopia and then the Portuguese supported Ethiopia and they managed to push the Adelites back into what's
1:33:19
the modernday area of Somali land. When Somali land became independent because Somalia had the unfortunate position similar to Morocco of being colonized by two different nations Italians in
1:33:29
the south and British to the north. when they got independent, Somali land or or the the tribes that
1:33:34
composed Somali land, they were willing to to join this wider Somali union and they did. They joined
1:33:40
this wider Somali union, albeit elections were took place on a clan basis. Then there was a coup
1:33:46
and imposition of a communist regime, a communist regime that was brutal to a whole range of various
1:33:51
different clans. And there were also Somali tribes in eastern Ethiopia and Odadan and some of these other places. A number of events we don't need to go into detail resulted in brutal crimes being
1:34:02
committed against different Somali clans amongst them the tribes that allied and normalized with
1:34:08
the Israelis themselves. The reason why I mention all of this is Somali land does not accept Israeli
1:34:16
recognition if the um had done a better job of reconciling the Somali factions. If the um hadn't
1:34:23
abandoned what I call, you know, the O and the tribes, the modern versions fighting each other,
1:34:30
there's no way Israel capitalizes on that. And the reason I want to focus on this particular point before I go back in geopolitics is it's what happened with Somali land and the way people
1:34:38
suddenly discovered Somali land when the news came out that Israel recognized it shows you another example of what we've been talking about many times on these podcasts. the disconnect between
1:34:47
the um consciousness, the disconnect between the um limbs in that people aren't aware of what
1:34:52
happened between these clans and therefore they didn't have the agency or power in order to go and reconcile between these Somali clans. But put that aside, the UAE secures recognition for Somali
1:35:02
land from Israel. And Somali land hopes that with Israeli recognition will come US recognition and
1:35:07
then will come European recognition. And with that recognition will come the establishment of a particular state. So that when Puntland, which is the semi-autonomous area next to it,
1:35:15
goes and marches in again to take territory from what it believes to be Somali land. From Somalia believe Somali land, it will be able to call an international force to preserve it. The disaster
1:35:26
is that as part of this normalization agreement, there's an expectation of Israeli military base on the Red Sea that the UAE will hope will protect UAE interests against Saudi Arabia, against Egypt,
1:35:36
against these other powers that are there on the Red Sea themselves. I think that although many in
1:35:41
Somali land are against this normalization with the Israelis, a lot of them appear powerless to
1:35:47
reverse it. The president of Somali land stood next to the foreign minister of the Israelis
1:35:52
even as he said, you know, Somali land is a state not like this Palestinian and he didn't even say anything against it either. Yeah. And the tragedy for those tribes that compos
1:36:02
Somali land or one main tribe in particular is that they will forever be labeled by the
1:36:08
um as traitors because there is no excuse on earth that allows a normalization with the Israelis despite any recognition of hardship that they went through in the past. I think that the UAE believes
1:36:18
that with this normalization, it will further cement its ability to control that Red Sea port.
1:36:24
But what's interesting is this. After the Saudis lash out at the UAE, UAE has issued a statement
1:36:30
saying that it rejects the Israeli recognition of Somali land. It's almost if the UAE terrified that
1:36:36
Saudi Arabia might force a whole domino effect. The UAE is sort of saying, "Wait a minute. I
1:36:41
need to make sure that I don't lose everything. So, let me start distancing myself from here." suggesting that bin Salman actually has the power to make this recognition meaningless. Bins Salman
1:36:51
has the power if his forces enter and he's able to take a greater role in what happens in Somalia alongside Erdogan. This is the point about this Erdogan binsman alliance. Erdogan already with
1:37:00
significant influence in Somalia itself. These two have the potential to completely redraw those maps. And if they have a particular vision, they can actually reconcile between the Somali
1:37:10
tribes in a way that will make Somali land's recognition of Israel irrelevant because they might be able to push for a unity between Somali land and Somalia given that they were united once
1:37:19
upon a time before Zad B and these others came with the communist regime and essentially caused havoc between these particular clans. I think it's a tragedy, but I don't think that it's
1:37:28
set firmly in place because no other nation has recognized Somali land immediately after Israel
1:37:34
has recognized. Donald Trump hasn't recognized Somali land. The one final thing I want to mention here is because I know that you have a guest lined up talk about Somali land. I want to take the the
1:37:42
the take it away from him to explain to more detail is that the recognition of Somali land
1:37:49
puts into context the sudden attack on Somalis in Minnesota that in order to secure recognition
1:37:56
from the Israelis that president of Somaland threw the Somalians in Minnesota under the bus that that
1:38:04
president allowed the UAE and Israel to lobby for a fierce media campaign that has put the lives in
1:38:11
upheaval of those Somalian brothers and sisters in Minnesota for the sake of securing some short-term
1:38:16
gain. And the worst part is that Somaland is not even getting recognition as an independent state. Somaliand is getting recognition as a transit worker for the UAE and Israel in those ports.
1:38:26
It's essentially saying you can use my land to use your military bases and to use my ports.
1:38:32
It's not gaining independence, it's giving that independence away. And the biggest challenge here is this. Now Somali land will be supported now by Ethiopia, by Israel and by the UEE. Ethiopia is
1:38:41
landlocked. Ethiopia is already using the port of Berbar in order to access the Red Sea because the UE has facilitated the agreement between Ethiopia and Somali land despite the tensions and wars that
1:38:50
have taken place in the past. The only solution to this in my opinion is that the Saudi Arabia and Turkey get involved reconciled between these Somali parties before it gets out of hand because
1:39:00
once Israel has its military base in that Red Sea region, the UAE tried to set up in Sautra but now
1:39:05
Sautra the Saudis have taken over it. It seems that the UAE Sotra flights are no longer taking
1:39:11
place. Now it's Satra to Saudi Arabia. You Saudi seems to have taken control of it. If Saudi if
1:39:16
Israel establishes that base on Somali land, it will be very difficult to convince the Americans to reverse it. A quick question on on Syria. Uh we spent a lot of time in the summer uh in Koala
Syria
1:39:27
Lumpur actually talking about Syria and uh you argued a very pragmatic argument that what else
1:39:33
can the Syrian government do? uh you know it's it's its back is against a wall and and it's
1:39:38
it's currently in a very uh difficult situation. So it has to make some peace with its neighbors
1:39:44
in order to survive. Um but of course there have been some slightly disturbing or very disturbing
1:39:50
uh things that I I want you to to um uh to comment on. In particular, there was a conversation or a a
1:39:57
um a story about uh a US brokered uh intelligence sharing agreement with the Israelis. Well,
1:40:05
at least that's how it was touted uh between the Syrian government and the Israelis. And secondly,
1:40:10
the arrest of the human rights activist Bilal Abdul Karim. As far as I know, until now,
1:40:16
uh he's disappeared and uh you know, he's a brave brave man and and you know, no one knows where
1:40:22
he's been held. uh just comment on those two things please. I think firstly it's important to note that the Israelis are unhappy with this coordination agreement with Damascus because what
1:40:32
the US has been trying to broker is a sessation of hostilities in the south of Syria. The Israelis
1:40:38
want to take Sueda or establish an autonomous region in Sueda because they don't trust Ahmed in Damascus and they don't trust the Damascus government. as part of an agreement, a peace deal
1:40:48
agreement. Ahmed Ashara and the Turks have been saying to the Americans that look, we don't want any beef with the Israelis. And Ahmed has been arguing they're not even my priority. My priority
1:40:56
is handling these separatist Kurds in northeast Syria. My priority is rebuilding Damascus, Aleppo,
1:41:01
deour, and these other places. My priority is to try to get the value of the currency up again. My priority is to get Bashar Assad's face off the currency and introduce a new currency. My
1:41:11
priority is to try to keep this place united given that the Iranians are trying to fund proxies in
1:41:16
order to divide the state once more. My priority is to actually build an army and actually build the state in the first place. I don't even have the power to go after the Israelis. The Israelis
1:41:24
are saying all of these reasons are why we need to attack Syria now before they have the power in
1:41:32
order to establish themselves. When the Israelis went to Donald Trump, Donald Trump says, "But what you're proposing is American intervention. it cost too much money and we're not willing to intervene
1:41:41
and Erdogan is telling me he can handle it. The Israeli said Erdogan is lying. Erdogan seems to
1:41:46
have convinced Donald Trump at least for now to recognize Ahmed and also invite Ahmed to America
1:41:52
and Ahmed Shar met with Donald Trump and so did Sha Bani and with Hakan Fidan and all these others
1:41:59
in order to appease the Israelis to get them off Ahmed's back. Trump tried to push for some sort of
1:42:05
normalization of ties between the Syrians and the Israelis. Ahmed Ashar said, "I can't normalize, but I can uphold the ceasefire agreement that was made in 1972." The Israelis tried to tout this as
1:42:16
normalization, but nobody bought it. It was clear that it was a ceasefire agreement. Trump said, "Listen, this isn't really a big deal for me. If you don't want to normalize, fine,
1:42:24
but at least the ceasefire agreement is a starting phase, and let's see how far we can go for it." And Tom Barak, who is the US ambassador to Turkey, who admires Turkey,
1:42:32
is a good friend of Erdogan as well. Tom Barak seems to agree with the Turkish viewpoint that now is not the time for any hostilities with regards to the Syrians. So it feels like the Israelis have
1:42:42
been dragged into this sort of agreement with the Syrians whereby Trump says to the Israelis,
1:42:48
this intelligence sharing means you can always keep an eye on what Ahmed is doing. When you feel
1:42:53
he's going too far, at least all the information will be apparent. He can't do anything in secret
1:42:59
through this particular agreement. The point that I'm saying is it is many people will find
1:43:05
it disappointing that Damascus has made a deal with the Israelis. But when you look at the terms of this deal, it's Israel which is the most upset because immediately after agreeing to this, Ahmed
1:43:15
Ashara and the Turks then march on Aleppo in order to deal with the separatist Kurds who are trying
1:43:20
to establish a northeastern autonomous region and waving Israeli flags in that region to the northeast autonomous region trying to take the oil away from Syria and offering Israel recognition in
1:43:31
order to ensure that they don't have to follow the commands or the orders of the Damascus government. The separatist Kurds are saying we don't want to lose this chance an independent state bit like
1:43:40
Somali land. We prefer to fight the Syrians and establish ourselves even if it means allying with the Israelis. With this deal with the Israelis, Ahmed is saying now that Israel is out the way.
1:43:49
Now that they can't bother me, now that Trump is reigning them in through this agreement, I can now focus on keeping Syria united, I can actually start to build a state over the next 5,
1:43:59
six, seven years that can actually stand up to the Israelis themselves. And that's why I think geopolitically I don't think it's as bad as some people initially thought when they read
1:44:08
that particular agreement because the loser in this is Israeli and it doesn't really dictate any normalization of ties on the issue of Abdar. If I had to say something I would advise anybody
1:44:22
anybody who knows that the UAE doesn't like them and who knows the Saudis have issues with them
1:44:29
do not go to Damascus. The reason being is your presence there will cause a diplomatic
1:44:35
crisis for Damascus and Damascus even if it's sympathetic towards you does not have the power
1:44:40
to protect you. Abdman Kardawi was in Damascus went to celebrate with the Syrians. He did a
1:44:46
video where he said I know Saudi and UAE will be upset at the liberation of the Syrians. He
1:44:51
crossed the border. As soon as he crossed the border he was kidnapped, surrendered to the UAE and no one knows where he is. It is plausible that Damascus knew it was going to happen but
1:45:01
was powerless to do anything to prevent it. Ashamsi who is an Imirati critic who was based
1:45:07
in Istanbul when Erdogan reconciled with the UAE for $50 billion Erdogan ordered all people who are
1:45:14
instant told them guys I need you to tow down in your criticism with the UAE because they give me $50 billion and I need the money because of the economic crisis. Hashem whose wife is Syrian when
1:45:24
Syria became liberated said to his wife let's go live in Damascus Syria is free let's go settle over there he moved to Damascus and then his wife tweeted and said my husband has disappeared for 3
1:45:36
weeks we know he was taken by the government but the government won't give us any information where he is fourth week fifth week sixth week I think yesterday she tweeted it's been now 3 months
1:45:44
no one knows where she is and when you ask some officials in Damascus government there's sort of
1:45:50
a sort of you know this is a very difficult thing for us indicating that because of their situation,
1:45:56
Damascus believes it needs to appease UAE and Saudi. So anybody who has a problem with these two governments, Damascus does not have the power to protect you. Damascus will
1:46:07
not protect you. And if they are asked to hand you over, it is more likely they will hand you
1:46:13
over even if it's begrudgingly because they will not jeopardize the potential money that comes in to invest in the economy for the sake of Abdman Kardawi or for the sake of Hashem. With BD Karim,
1:46:23
I think the situation is slightly different. B Abdarim famously complained about the torture that took place in prisons when Ahmed was ruling in Idlib. Did a famous video and he himself,
1:46:32
you know, did a video where he described what had happened to him in those particular prisons. But he still supported the Syrian revolution and he stuck with it and he went with them to
1:46:41
Damascus. He was a reporter. B Abd Karim who had his citizenship stripped as an American and was
1:46:46
also put on a kill list by Obama administration. There was a sense by those who came in from the
1:46:52
outside who had been violated by their governments like and these others who had their citizenship removed that as a result of having supported the Syrian revolution, they would get at least
1:47:01
Syrian citizenship as sort of a gesture and therefore they wouldn't be stateless. they actually have a citizenship. The problem is that when Ahmed started negotiating with the Americans,
1:47:10
one of the conditions that was imposed on Ahmed is that no citizenship be given to a non-Syrian.
1:47:17
Those who came from outside must not be given a citizenship. So, Bilah Abdarim naturally felt
1:47:22
a bit agreved in terms of but he was allowed to stay in Syria by the government because there was an implicit arrangement that thank you guys for your service, you can stay here. Bil Abd Kharim
1:47:32
continued his reporting on some of the violations that took place that happened in in in in many
1:47:37
states and the like and it seems that what it appears is that some of those criticisms went
1:47:44
too far and now he has seemingly disappeared and the issue is not whether he faces justice or not.
1:47:49
The issue is nobody knows where he is. At least when you're arrested, you know where. For example, when I was arrested by ICE, it became clear I was taken to this facility later all be in the
1:48:00
few first few hours a bit difficult. But everybody knew where I was. They knew what the updates were. You know, you could reach me, you know, by a phone and the like. They don't know where Abdarim is.
1:48:08
And so I would say here from this platform to the government of Damascus, don't hand over a
1:48:14
shamsi to the UAE. Send him back to Turkey. Just just get send him to Turkey. Send him somewhere
1:48:21
else. If you can't protect him, send him somewhere else. But let his wife know where he is. Let his wife know that he's safe. Let his wife know that he's okay. You did a revolution in order against
1:48:31
a regime that used to do this to people. Don't be a regime that does this to people. We know you can't protect these people. We know you're under difficult situation. We know you're being bullied
1:48:41
by many powers. We know you're in a difficult situation. We know that you need to navigate it. We will stay well away so we don't cause you any diplomatic problems. But release bare find
1:48:52
some sort of solution for him. Let him go. Let him speak to his wife. Put him through a court system.
1:48:57
Show people that you're justice. But let his wife know where he is. And with Abdman Kardawi, which
1:49:02
was a very painful and very horrible situation that took place. Yes, he was kidnapped in Lebanon,
1:49:08
but there were question marks over that. Don't be a regime where people turn around and say this is what happens to critics and the like. I pray that Abdarim is safe. I pray that Hashem
1:49:17
is safe and I pray that while I understand the situation in Syria, I pray that the bravery that
1:49:23
they showed in the revolution, they will show that bravery in standing up for justice even
1:49:28
with all the pressure that's coming up against them. And finally, uh Sami, um we're coming to
Ramadan - How to make Dua
1:49:34
uh Ramadan. Uh we're not so far away from Ramadan inshallah and may Allahh bless us once again with
1:49:41
uh with this month. uh so many of us uh increase our ibadat in in in the month of Ramadan and in
1:49:48
particular we focus much more on our dua and and we focus on our worship to and our prayer to Allah
1:49:56
subhanaa tala and and to ask Allah subhanaa tala for help and to ask him for mercy subhanahu wa
1:50:01
ta'ala um I just want to ask you a question it's a question I've been meaning to ask you for some time uh how should we with all of what you've said today with the rulers who have gone one
1:50:14
way and then maybe their recovery with the fate and and the complexities of the Muslim um with
1:50:20
Gaza still looming after two years two and a half years nearly uh Gaza still remains a a burning saw
1:50:28
uh in our soul as as Muslims with all of what what is happening. How should we as Muslims
1:50:34
uh construct our dua in this month to maximize uh the uh the possibility that Allah subhana wa
1:50:41
t'ala answers our dua and recovers uh the state of the Muslim um often there is assumption that
1:50:48
when Ramadan comes this is the time to rest this is the time to reflect this is the time to
1:50:53
sit down this is the time to take it easy this is the time where because we're fasting don't do too
1:51:02
Which for me is a very strange concept as a Muslim because the Quran the revelation first revelation
1:51:09
that told the prophetam to move and go and convey the message go and tell people about Islam that
1:51:15
revelation came during Ramadan. He wasn't told to rest during this month and wait 30 days before you go out and convey. He was told during Ramadan get up and go go and convey the message. Read about
1:51:26
what I'm about to reveal to you and go out and go and mobilize. Go and tell people about Allah. Go and tell people you're the messenger. Go and tell people that they need to stop injustice. Go and
1:51:34
tell people they need to stop the oppression. Go and tell people they need to stop bearing their daughters alive. Go and tell people they need to stop cheating each other. This was done in
1:51:41
the month of Ramadan. The night of power where Allah manifests himself. Allah is not resting in
1:51:47
this regard. Where Allah manifests himself is happens during Ramadan. The conquest of Mecca when the prophet Muhammad entered Mecca happened during Ramadan. The battle of Jalut where the
1:51:57
Muslims defeated the Mongols happened during Ramadan. The battle of Godetta where defeats
1:52:02
Rodri in Anderia happened during Ramadan. The battle of where defeats the crusaders happened
1:52:09
during Ramadan. The reality is that whenever you look at the events that took place in Ramadan,
1:52:14
those who came before us weren't resting in Ramadan. Those who came before us didn't sit
1:52:19
during Ramadan. Those who came before us didn't see Ramadan as the month where you stop where you
1:52:24
give a gift to Netanyahu and tell them Ramadan is when we should start bombing Gaza because the Muslims are sitting down because they're not eating as they usually do so they must be
1:52:33
more tired. There's always been an uptick in the bombing of Gaza during during Ramadan because just as we claim it is a blessing for us, Netanyahu sees it as a blessing because we tend to reduce
1:52:44
our activities. We reduce our ability to talk. We reduce our protest. We reduce our boycott. We
1:52:51
reduce our activity. Whereas the whole point of Ramadan is to demonstrate you can do a lot with
1:52:56
less than you thought you could do it with. The point is when you're not eating during the day and Sahabah are still pulling off these feats. When you're not eating during the day and
1:53:05
you're giving up that food and water, but you realize you can actually get through the day, you're having more tawa. You're realizing actually, wait a minute, I can do so much
1:53:13
more with less than I thought. I can do so much more and I don't need to eat as much. I have more
1:53:19
energy than I thought. It's Allahh reminding you that you don't need as much as you think that you
1:53:24
need in order to move. You don't need as much as you think as you need in order to make an impact.
1:53:29
The problem when we talk about Ramadan is we talk about like it's a stop gap. But the reason Allah introduces this fasting for us is not so that you might relax and the like. When Allah says
1:53:44
that you might achieve what is tawa was asked by yeah Omar has said to obey obey what is tawa. So
1:53:54
says to Omar have you ever walked on a thorny path? So Omar says yes and says ya how did you
1:54:02
walk on this thorny path? He said before I took every step I'd watch to see where I put my foot. Obey said this is tawa. Note here that the action that Omar is using to reference tawa
1:54:14
is not an action of sitting. It's an action of continuing to walk on the path. It's a
1:54:19
proactive motion. It's putting the foot forward and the other foot forward. The only difference
1:54:24
that happens in Ramadan to your movement is you become more concentrated and precise with
1:54:30
your movements because the fasting makes you less wanting to waste any energy or waste any
1:54:36
movement. So you start being careful. Okay, if I'm going to boycott, where am I going to boycott? If I'm going to protest, which one are we all going to go to together? If I'm going to
1:54:45
go and and and raise my voice, what particular topic am I going to do? Is everybody going to go
1:54:50
quiet about during Ramadan? Because there is some sort of rest that you need to take. The reality is that when you look at the examples of the past, Ramadan was not a month of rest.
1:55:00
Ramadan was a month of reflection about the powers that Allah subhana t had given you about the
1:55:06
presence of Allah so that he can deliver it about the power of Allah how he brought these victories
1:55:11
in spite of the people fasting suggesting the fasting attributed more tawa which allowed
1:55:17
Allah to deliver those victories Ramadan is a moment of reflection not rest it's a month of
1:55:23
reset not rest it's not a month where you sit down it's a month where you move what I am terrified
1:55:29
of with this Ramadan that's coming up is that everybody thinks it's like a pit stop in a Formula 1 race where you go and relax and you park your car and you say to yourself, I'm having a pit
1:55:38
stop. It's Ramadan. It's where, for example, you've been running and running for justice, causing a headache for the Zionist in America, breaking their monopoly over the narrative.
1:55:48
Thousands of Americans now changing their minds, thousands of Brits changing their minds, thousands of French changed their minds. But when you're really making an impact and everybody is
1:55:56
seeing it, there is a reduction in content because everybody is resting because everybody says no, I need to reflect now. These dy affairs are not what I need to focus on during Ramadan.
1:56:06
Yeah. Allah does not come down on this earth one month during the year. Allah subh is ever present
1:56:13
and he's always there. The gift of Ramadan is that you start to perceive Allah subhana wa ta'ala. And that's why I tell people don't make Ramadan the month of blessing for the oppressor.
1:56:23
Don't make Ramadan the month of blessing for the wrongdoers. Don't make Ramadan the month of blessing for those who are slaughtering in because suddenly Netanyahu feels like nobody's going to
1:56:32
talk about anymore. We keep moving during Ramadan. If the prophet tells you bad is during Ramadan,
1:56:39
we get up and we go. If tells you we're going to Jerusalem in Ramadan, we go. If the Quran comes
1:56:45
down during Ramadan, Allah tells you go. We go. That's what Ramadan is. It's a reminder of the
1:56:50
message to go. Think about it, Jalal. During Ramadan, we say we need to finish the Quran.
1:56:56
It's not the Quran that you need to finish. It's the reconnection with the Quran. You're not finishing the Quran. You are opening the Quran and letting it speak to you. When it says to you,
1:57:09
"Oh, you who are covered, covered at home, you who are covered with a blanket, you who are covered in sitting." It's talking to the prophetam, but it's talking to you. Oh,
1:57:18
you who are covered. Don't read it. Oh, mashallah. Allah says stand and convey. Allah means read the
1:57:25
Quran. When Allah speaks to you in it, then get up and say something. As soon as you read the
1:57:32
get up and say something. When Allah subhana wa ta'ala when you get to the page where Allah says,
1:57:43
those who strive for the sake of Allah and they strive believing in the promise of Allah. Allah says their striving is rewarded. Don't just zoom past it like you've just read an ayah.
1:57:52
The Quran is speaking to you. Allah has given you a chance to read it. Get up and strive. Pause on that ayah. Get up and say, "What can I strive in?" That's the point of reading Quran during
1:58:02
Ramadan. It's not for you to finish it. It's for you to speak with it. It's not for you to
1:58:08
finish it. It's for you to reconnect with it. It's not for you to finish it. It's for you to remind yourself that there are commands that Allah gave you in the Quran. So, you keep going.
1:58:17
What are you going to be reading the Quran during Ramadan? You're going to read the story of Ysefam
1:58:22
not as a story that is a kumbaya story. You're going to be reading Surah Ysef and you're going to see that he's betrayed by 11 Arab states, betrayed by 11 brothers and that he's thrown in
1:58:33
a well and he's abandoned by them. And the nicest of those Arabs, the nicest of those brothers says,
1:58:38
"Let's not kill him. Let's just throw him in a well." And you will read how Ysef Alisam is thrown in the well. And you're going to read how he's pulled out of the world but sold into
1:58:47
slavery. And then you're going to read how in slavery he's put in a position where he's told
1:58:52
commit a major sin or go to prison. And he says if this is the choice between a rock and a hard place
1:58:58
I'll go to the prison. And he goes to prison and he stays there many years and he's forgot. That's what the Quran is not telling you. This is what happened to you. The Quran is telling you do you
1:59:09
not see the parallel in your life? how we go from genocide to Gaza phase one to Gaza phase 2 to Arab
1:59:16
states not this to being put in prison over some international peace board and the like until you
1:59:21
get to the ending of it. Allah says read on. It's Ramadan. Read on. It's Ramadan. See what happens.
1:59:26
And you start reading and Ysef Alam comes out aliz and all of the Arabs all of the brothers
1:59:31
are standing before him and they are asking him to forgive them for the way that they abandoned. Read
1:59:37
it. When you get to don't just read it and say I read talk to the Quran. Let it speak to you. Says
1:59:53
hear when he says it and see the resonance with those who are saying it around you. When you
1:59:59
read it, don't read it like you are reading it like some sort of text and you're like, "Okay, I'm ticking it." Read it and say, "Hang on a second. You know what?
2:00:06
This is how I feel Allah. This is how I feel and go through it as you realize you
2:00:12
are like noisam. That's the point of the Quran. It's not rest. It's reset. It's I
2:00:18
see myself here. When you get to Lordisam's story and you get to the point where he says,
2:00:28
"If only I had power or a powerful ally to resist my oppressors." Don't just read it. you're
2:00:33
listening to or AI or these other people, stop there for a second and say, "Oh my goodness, it's
2:00:40
like the Quran knows my heart. Oh my goodness, it's like the Quran is speaking to me." Quran,
2:00:45
how did you know this is what I feel? Quran, how did you know this is what I'm feeling? And let
2:00:50
the Quran tell you, read on, read on, read on. I have a beautiful ending for you about how Allah's
2:00:58
victory came true. Read read when you get to it. Don't read it like you're just rushing through it.
2:01:09
No, no, stop. Listen to
2:01:15
he called Allah. It's almost saying to Allah,
2:01:24
my bones have become old and my hair has become white and Allah,
2:01:30
I only have my dua for you. to ask about dua. I only have the dua that I can call you on
2:01:39
and I am scared about those who come after me about the legacy I leave behind about somebody
2:01:46
to convey the message after me and Allah subhana t responds to him afterwards and Zakaria is unsure about Allah's promise because Allah says we're going to give
2:01:54
you so and then Zakaria says how can I have a when my wife is old
2:02:06
and I have become old. When you read that part, you're not reading a random story. This is you
2:02:11
saying to Allah, "How can I liberate Philstine when all I can do is talk in a mic? How can I liberate Philstine when all we can do is do some production? How can I liberate Philstine when
2:02:21
all I have is this? How can I liberate Sudan when all I can do is this?" That's the meaning of it.
2:02:27
How can these great miracles happen when I am so limited? That's the point of zakaria. How can I achieve these great miracles that you promise
2:02:37
when I am an old man with bones and my wife is old? What does Allah respond?
2:02:44
Well,
2:02:50
that we created you are nothing. Allah says that it is easy for me and did we not create
2:02:58
you when you are nothing. See how Allah says it to Zakaria and how he says it to Miam later when she
2:03:04
says how can I have a son. These aren't random stories. These are Quranic stories to tell us
2:03:10
how we can move next how we can keep going. When Allah tells you about those who came before us
2:03:18
that do you think you will not be tested like those who came before you? They were tried and tested were shaken in their hearts until they said meta. The the Quran is saying to you, yeah,
2:03:30
you know, people before you said it as well, people before you said it as well. Yeah, Jerry, people before you said it as well. Yes, Sammy. People before you said it as well,
2:03:38
they said all these things. Read it. You're supposed to stop and say, "Oh my goodness, this is exactly what I'm reading from the naysayers on Twitter. This is exactly what I'm reading.
2:03:47
The people are saying on Instagram. It's like this Quran has an answer. It's like this Quran
2:03:52
knows what to do. It's like this Quran knows how things are going to pan out. It's like this Quran,
2:03:57
this magnificent story just repeats itself over and over again. Everybody says, "Set your goals
2:04:03
for Ramadan. I'm going to finish the Quran." Why finish the Quran? Speak to the Quran and let it
2:04:08
speak to you in its own way. Let the ayah resonate with you in its own way. Let Allah speak to you
2:04:14
in this book. For the Quran was a miracle. Why? The Quran was a miracle because Allah removed an
2:04:19
intermediary and Allah put his words in a book to speak to you directly. Allah said to you,
2:04:28
if you were to count the blessings of Allah, you would never finish counting them. The point of Ramadan is not to rest. The point of Ramadan is to remind you we're stronger than we believe we
2:04:38
are. We're stronger than we think we are. We're stronger than we give ourselves credit for because
2:04:44
our Lord is Allah subhana wa ta'ala. And the final point I'll say here is this. The reason Allah says
2:04:49
reconnect with the Quran is look at what the prophet Muhammad sallallahu alaihi wasallam went through to deliver this Quran to you. Look at how much test he went to deliver it to you to
2:04:59
save you 1,400 years later from and to bring you into the N. Look how many people carried
2:05:07
this book and carried this message in order to go and deliver it to you so that you might be guided.
2:05:13
Look what they went through to deliver it to you. Look at the trials they went through to deliver it to you. They went through colonization. They went through defeats. They went through all
2:05:21
of these various different to deliver it to you. Are you the one who receives the book and says, "I'm the generation that stops and does nothing." It's a chance. It's a chance for us to reset,
2:05:31
not to rest. So why I say to people when they make the dua is remember this point. When the
2:05:37
prophet Muhammad wasallam received the first, he didn't receive the full Quran all in one go. He didn't receive it all in one go. The reason he didn't receive it all in one go is because he
2:05:46
hadn't gone through the necessary experiences in order to understand the rest of the ayat. The point is it's not about finishing the Quran. It's about connecting with the Quran and letting
2:05:56
it speak to you. And it's about reminding that in this world of evil and injustice, Allah subhana wa ta still exists. Allah subh is still there. The community is still there and
2:06:07
you'll see them in the community is still there. You'll gather with them forar. Your family still
2:06:12
love you. You will sit with them inar. The one whose family is non-Muslim will go to the masid and will find people sitting there inviting them forar. People will send invitations everywhere and
2:06:22
saying, "Hang on a second. We do actually have a community. We do actually care about each other. We do actually come together. Is this what my where have you been all year? Why is it I only
2:06:32
see you during Ramadan?" And you will realize the reason you only saw them during Ramadan is because you forgot the Quran. You didn't move. You didn't be concentrated in your tawa. You forgot
2:06:41
Allah subhana wa ta'ala. Allah is saying during Ramadan, Ramadan is not about rest. Ramadan is about coming back to me. May Allah make us those who remember him. May Allah allow us to keep
2:06:50
moving. May Allah never make Ramadan a blessed month for the oppressors. May he never make it a blessed month for Netanyahu. May he never make it a blessed month for the wrongdoers.
2:06:58
May Allah always let us be the thorn in the side of injustice. Even during Ramadan, we will not
2:07:04
rest during Ramadan. We will keep moving as they did in Badr as they did in Jerusalem.
2:07:10
As they did in as they did in the revelation of the Quran that came down during Ramadan, as they did in Guadaleta when they established and the paramount of coexistence, the the epitome of
2:07:21
coexistence between the different religions. This is the heritage of Ramadan. Whoever said rest, may Allah forgive him because I think a punishment is coming his way. Hamdi for all your time today.
2:07:32
Thank you so much. Asalam alaikum. Now you've reached the end of this show and the fact that
2:07:38
you've stayed until the very end tells me that you truly believe in our work. Please consider making a one-off donation or becoming a member by visiting thinkingmuslim.com/membership.
2:07:49
Now, your contributions give you exclusive behind-the-scenes access and the ability to ask questions to our guests and monthly calls with myself,
2:07:57
my team and our guests like Sami Hamdi and keep us in your duas.