Ep 278. - The Ceasefire Delusion | Daniel Levy
This week on The Thinking Muslim we have ex-israeli negotiator turned deep critic. Daniel Levy gives us an insider view on how the Israeli regime looks upon the current ceasefire and prospects for a just peace for the Palestinian people.
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Transcript - This is an automated transcript and may not reflect the actual conversation
Introduction
0:00
This week on the thinking Muslim, we have ex-Israeli negotiator turned deep critic.
0:05
Daniel Levy gives us an insider view on how the Israeli regime looks upon the current
0:11
ceasefire and prospects for a just peace for the Palestinians. We should listen to what Israel's
0:16
leaders are telling us. Listen to Trump when he talks about the strike against Iran. His eyes
0:23
light up. What happened with Venezuela with the illegal kidnapping of President Maduro?
0:28
The Netanyahu government is pursuing its genocidal policy by other means. Angel, I'm very hesitant to
0:35
use that term even ceasefire. But Israel did not withdraw from Gaza. Israel did not allow the aid
0:41
in. As we've said, Israel did not desist from its military operation. It is now exclusively, I would say, reliant on military domination. Europe is crucial to Israel in what I call the
0:53
3Ts. Quarter of Israel's assets are held in European banks. Does anyone talk about freezing those assets? Trump is excited about this awesome toy of American military power
1:05
and how you can deploy it. The displacement of brown people for white settlement. What's not
1:11
to like it? Daniel Levy, welcome to the Thinking Muslin. Thank you for having me, Joel. Well, it's
1:18
wonderful to have you with us. Now Daniel, I know you've been doing the rounds and talking about um the current prospects for peace and prospects for a an enduring ceasefire. And I want to focus
1:28
on that today in our conversation as well as uh really look at the prospects of Netanyahu's
Ceasefire First Phase
1:36
government and peace in in the region because of course uh over the last two and a half years,
1:42
Israel has really been uh on a on a militant path I would suggest uh across the region. So,
1:47
we've got a lot to cover today, but I want to start with the ceasefire itself. Now, we're formally in this first phase, they call it, of the ceasefire. Uh, from your perspective,
1:58
how real is this ceasefire in practice? Angel, I'm very hesitant to use that term even ceasefire. I,
2:06
you know, let's first of all acknowledge that the hellscape of Gaza continues. Mhm. Killing rates
2:16
in the triple digits, which were staggeringly the norm for the better part of of 2 years plus
2:26
um are not the case. But people are being killed by the Israeli military in Gaza every day. Are
2:36
we at the height of the starvation siege? No. But do we have anything like acceptable or reasonable
2:46
living conditions? Absolutely not. Even that minimal commitment in the plan to 600 trucks a
2:55
day, keeping people just above subsistence level when they've been kept so far below subsistence
3:00
level for so long. Even that has not been met. We're at about 125. So we're at about a quarter
3:07
of what was committed to. So given that there are daily military operations by the Israelis,
3:14
I think we're at significantly over 400 Palestinians killed since the so-called ceasefire.
3:22
The creeping deepening of that Israeli military presence. This is a ceasefire. Yeah. characterized
3:33
by Israel can do what it wants and call this a ceasefire. We've seen this in Lebanon. So,
3:45
while not dismissing entirely absolute need for Palestinians in Gaza to have a little bit of that
3:55
breathing space. I also don't want to get carried away with a sense of a page having been turned,
4:04
let alone the claim of the broker of that arrangement, the American president,
4:11
that after 3,000 years of conflict, here we have peace in the Middle East. And the document itself
4:18
is extremely problematic. When I say document, I of course refer to the 20 points. And that
4:24
was subsequently translated and this was a a an appalling act also of complicity by those
4:31
who went along with it. That gets translated into UN Security Council resolution 2803 which
4:38
conditions fundamental Palestinian rights including the right to self-determination.
4:43
Would you go as far as to say that the Netanyahu government is pursuing through this ceasefire his
Genocidal aims of Netanyahu
4:51
uh its genocidal policy by other means? I think that would in very significant measure be an
4:58
accurate description really. You what you have is the continued displacement of Palestinians.
5:09
Mhm. You of course do not have the ability of Palestinians to go back to those parts of Gaza
5:16
still under Israeli direct military occupation. This so-called yellow line that people will be
5:22
familiar with. uh forensic architecture has uh come up with detailed examination that there
5:29
are 13 new areas as of the end of 2025 in which Israel has expanded its footprint and its military
5:38
presence. So not only do you have Palestinians prevented from going back too much of Gaza,
5:46
they're certainly not allowed to begin to reconstruct. The conditionalities being placed on that are intentionally ownorous. You have Israel squeezing Palestinians and look at the
5:58
geography here in particular into areas abutting the Egyptian border. When the main border crossing
6:07
to Egypt, the rougher crossing was opened. It was opened unidirectionally. So for exit only.
6:15
None of this is circumstantial. None of this is by coincidence. Are we in a phase which is more about
6:27
making life unbearable to tea up the next phase of ethnic cleansing rather than the next phase of
6:35
uh outright um physical removal by death of Palestinians? I think we should take
6:43
that very seriously because we should listen to what Israel's leaders are telling us. And what
6:49
are they telling us? And those in Netanyahu's coalition continue to tell us that Gaza will be
6:57
resettled by Zionist Jewish Israeli settlers, that there is not a future for Palestinians in Gaza.
7:04
and they have been caught red-handed in episodes like this so-called al-mudged
7:10
uh NGO which is being sponsored is clearly an Israeli front organization that's been
7:15
exposed by investigations and is a front for getting Palestinians out of Gaza permanently.
7:24
Now, I don't think that the big numbers in, you know, you still have a population,
7:30
it's probably hovers around the 2 million mark. It was 2.3 million on the eve of October 2023. Um,
7:38
that's not going to lead to the mass physical removal. But the perception Israel wants to
7:43
create is you have no future here. At some stage, you should seek your future elsewhere. We'll
7:51
try and facilitate that. I wouldn't dismiss the idea uh that the attempt to push people
7:57
uh into Egypt will be uh revisited. That was openly discussed as an Israeli governmental plan.
8:04
Yeah. Um, even something we may discuss, I imagine this Israeli recognition of Somali land has been
8:12
linked to the physical displacement and the Somali land administration's agreement to Palestinians
8:18
from Gaza uh being taken in uh by that uh by that territory. Again, do I expect that to be
8:26
a huge numerical undertaking? No. But it it's it's signaling and there's a similar process in
8:33
the West Bank. One shouldn't discuss this though without acknowledging something that I think is
8:40
perhaps even more important than everything I've just described in terms of Israeli intentionality
8:46
which is Palestinian resilience. Because the other side of that story is against the backdrop of
8:52
everything that has been attempted. Palestinians have this relationship with staying on the land,
9:01
this this depth of a of a summood um resilience outlook. Um and I think the Israelis in many
9:16
respects do get it. I think if you peel back the layers, they're aware that you've had a Nakba,
9:24
you're talking about a second Nakba, you're trying to implement a second, but there's a Palestinian
9:31
depth of attachment. It's going to take an awful lot to stop that, which is why I think killing
9:37
is is is deployed so ubiquitously. Um I think who doesn't get that at all when and so that
9:47
and this is interesting to me is in the American administration where the combination of the real
9:53
estate magnate and the settler colonial mindset of especially the people around this American
10:00
administration they keep returning to this idea of hey you can have a better life somewhere else why don't you go there the idea that people are rooted to their soil this is their home and so Trump even
10:11
returned to it at that Mara Lago ago just before New Year press conference with Prime Minister Netanyahu where he again talked about Palestinians leaving and that's his default place to go.
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11:18
Visit btml. us/thinkingmuslim to learn more and give. So, let's let's talk about the the
Ceasefire Phase two
11:25
continuation of of the ceasefire. Of course, with all the caveats that you mentioned, there is a conversation still ongoing about phase two of the ceasefire. was within the 20 points
11:35
that were initially proposed. Um, and within that phase two, there would be an international
11:41
stabilization force and one country that is often cited as as being called to that would be Turkey.
11:48
And of course, it seems that Netanyahu resists at the moment any boots on the ground from Turkey
11:53
uh whatsoever. I mean based on your experience firstly do you feel that there is any prospect
12:00
for an international stabilization force in Gaza or will Netanyahu resist any such any
12:06
such measure? So I think what you have is a thus far successful Israeli attempt to set the terms
12:17
of the ceasefire and of what happens next in phase B of the ceasefire. So the Israelis being
12:24
held in Gaza were returned. I would argue as well they should be. There were Palestinian prisoners
12:30
released as well they should be. Um but Israel did not withdraw from Gaza. Israel did not allow the
12:39
aid in. As we've said, Israel did not desist from its military operations. It downgraded those. Um,
12:47
and Israel is seeking to make sure that the next phase does not in any way disturb its continued
12:54
domination of that space. What could disturb that space? That space could be disturbed by
13:00
a handover to genuine Palestinian governance. I don't know if we're going to discuss this further,
13:05
but anyone paying attention is increasingly getting exposed to what are very pragmatic
13:16
in if you take comparative conflict elsewhere in the world historically, liberation movements under
13:23
illegal occupations, resistance, etc. What are very pragmatic positions being put forward by
13:29
the Hamas leadership as to how this can be dealt with? Israel is not interested
13:34
and Americans thus far are not interested in pursuing those. And so Israel is hiding behind
13:42
this question of disarmament. I'll park that for a moment. Setting the bar for disarmament
13:48
in a place that is intentionally again unreach unreachable. And the Israeli position is that
13:57
if we are looking at a force that can be a co-occupier, a co- belligerent in terms of
14:12
going after Palestinians, thumbs up. That's fine with us. I think they understand that that's
14:20
unlikely. They managed to establish something in the West Bank with the Palestinian Authority where their security forces largely operate in that vein. What you don't have thus far,
14:34
and I think it will be difficult to change that, is a willingness of countries to go in and say,
14:40
"Okay, we'll deploy alongside the IDF to suppress Palestinians." What is not written in the plan, but it's the image that's conjured up when you hear the word
14:51
international stabilization force or international force is that presumably the party that has been
14:59
genocided who do not have the ability to defend themselves would be protected by such a force,
15:06
the Palestinians. And that this force would act in some way as a deterrence to Israeli action.
15:12
such a force would bear witness on the ground. They would see how the Israelis act. They would be able to investigate and Israel would perhaps think twice before killing the troops of third parties.
15:23
Israel is aware of all of those things and hence Israel has no interest whatsoever in there being
15:29
an international force on the ground that at any stage could even emerge to have a mandate where
15:41
Palestinians are being protected, Israel is being deterred and therefore it doesn't want to see this
15:48
force come about. There's also the issue here of precedent. If you put something on the ground
15:54
in Gaza, then what's the logic for not having it in the occupied West Bank in East Jerusalem? Um,
16:03
and I think that unless this is insisted upon, ultimately that's going to have to include the US,
16:11
then you will not see an international force that bears any resemblance to what I just described.
16:16
Of course, it is also linked to Israel's withdrawal from the 58% of plus minus of
16:22
Gaza now under direct occupation. Again, something that Israel doesn't intend to do. And so, instead, we're playing this game. Um, and part of the game is uh what is being called the CMCC. uh uh I think
16:35
it's the civil military coordination center, a facility inside Israel uh largely staffed
16:42
by the Israeli military and the Americans with uh you know two three dozen other militaries having
16:49
a very small presence in this building which was supposed to advance issues like entry of aid into
16:56
Gaza. It's almost entirely failed to do so. It has led to some friction at a working level between
17:02
some of these militaries and Israel. But I think the Israelis would say what a fantastic success.
17:07
While while we are in the International Court of Justice being tried for the crimes of genocide,
17:17
we have three dozen militaries collaborating with us in a center in our territory controlled by us.
17:24
What what a marvelous whitewashing exercise. And I think that's what it is. Shame on those countries
17:30
who are who are participating in that. Um, and it also potentially might allow the American
17:39
president to say, "Oh, I have my ISF. We got three dozen militaries cooperating together. We're doing
17:45
some fantastic stuff." And just as he may say, "We've got our governance for Gaza. We got the
17:51
Board of Peace. We got Tony Blair, whoever else." So, I think that's the game we're playing. And unless and until Israel experiences something it tends not to experience, which is leverage being
18:05
deployed against it, which is its feet being held to the fire, which is accountability and a
18:10
challenge to its impunity, unless and until those things happen, the argument that the countries
18:17
who are engaged in this are making, which is this is the only way to try and improve the ceasefire, that becomes largely irrelevant because you're not actually challenging the Israelis For me,
18:26
the big test therefore is accountability. And the first thing I would look at is compensation.
18:35
Israel destroyed Gaza. Why do we expect Gulf Arab states, European taxpayers, others to make good
18:43
on that? Absolutely. I want the resources for Gazans to be able to uh pick up their lives,
18:49
for Palestinians in Gaza to have a better future, to come from wherever they can come from. But there's one place where we should be saying this isn't a question of uh philanthropy. You
19:04
should be doing this. A quarter of Israel's assets are held in European banks. Does anyone talk about
19:09
freezing those assets? Not that I've heard of. So when we talk about leverage and accountability,
Trump and Netanyahu
19:16
we obviously turn to the Americans. And um I've got a a two-part question here really.
19:21
that firstly uh there is a perception that Trump is better in inverted commas than Biden.
19:27
Biden was ideologically wedded to the Israeli state policy of annihilating the Palestinians,
19:34
let's call it that. Uh whereas Trump is far more transactional and doesn't quite have the ideology
19:40
that that Biden had. And and secondly, then what is the relationship in your mind between Trump and
19:46
Netanyahu? And um I you mentioned the Mara Lago press conference that took place between the two
19:54
leaders and um there was a little bit of push back I noticed in in that press conference when
20:00
Turkey was raised in the second phase was raised uh the um uh you know there was a disagreement
20:07
over whether Turkey should have any presence in in Gaza. there was a disagreement on the West Bank and uh and and you could see the the body language was was somewhat contorted at that point
20:19
between the two leaders. So in your mind is there is there leverage there and do you believe that
20:26
um um there is a an attention to the detail maybe uh within the Trump administration to follow
20:34
through on on this cease so-called ceasefire uh plan. So you a lot to unpack please. So
20:41
um I think my best starting point would be um well lowbar when it comes to
20:52
uh is this an improvement on Biden. Um but let's also locate this in in a thread of continuity when
21:03
it comes to US USIs Israel relationship the role of Israel in uh US politics the
21:14
the successful embedding of Israel and Zionism in a in in a partly a Judeo-Christian
21:23
uh American also frontier perspective, also settler colonial um way of seeing the world.
21:31
So for for many Americans, the displacement of brown people for white settlement,
21:38
what's not to like it? Um and I just think we have to be cognitive of that. Uh and then, you know,
21:44
one can go into how American politics works, campaign finance, uh the Israel lobby, it's
21:51
not unique. Look at big farmer, look at the gun lobby, but it is certainly uh a significant player
22:01
and then you kind of get to contemporary American politics and this is interesting and this has
22:08
gotten very interesting. Yeah. And if you want a kind of headline from the last few months,
22:15
it's whoa, where did that come from? And boy has it moved fast. When it comes to the fight inside
22:23
Ma Israel first versus America first, we're talking about Tucker Carlson. Tucker Carlson,
22:29
Marjorie Taylor Green, uh Candace Candice, even Nate Fuentes on the So there's so so and this is
22:38
where for for some people this is an attempt to understand contemporary politics without without
22:47
digging deep enough. So, I'm not going to dig deeper and become a fan of Nick Fuentes by any
22:54
stretch of the imagination, but to think that you can simply dismiss him because the ADL anti-defamationally uh super compromised organization says so, uh you you're not getting
23:06
the the the rhythm of the of the debate on the right today. And when when Trump cloaks himself in
23:15
um in the Mark Levven and the Miriam Adlesen's, these are very important pro-Israel influencers
23:22
by the funders or or in the uh you know the the the podcast sphere. Um I think he's just
23:31
strengthening the other side. And when and as I say when some of those legacy establishment
23:37
American Jewish organizations and I I would stress that I do not think they are representative of
23:43
where American Jews are at. But when those legacy organizations go after them in the way they do,
23:51
I think they're failing. If I kind of step back for a moment and and obviously the the thing that they deploy most aggressively and um endlessly is is is accusations of anti-semitism.
24:06
Sometimes accurate, very often false. Um you know, I would say that that some of these
24:12
organizations are probably bigger spreaders of anti-semitism today than the people who they are
24:18
uh those legacy Jewish organizations, the people who are there accusing that of.
24:23
pulling us back into into your question, J. Um, so in American politics, you have you are already
24:31
deep into a world in which Democrat leadership politics is marketkedly out of sync with where
24:39
their voters, where their constituency, certainly where their mobilized activist
24:45
constituent constituency is at. You saw that in the Biden administration. You saw that in the Kla Harris campaign. and they paid a big price for it and I think that is now acknowledged and you
24:56
see change on the Dem side. Is it f going far enough? Is it fast enough? No. But you look at
25:02
the polling numbers and they're quite staggering. What you didn't have was that same rupture on the GOP Republican side and that's what you have today. And I'm not sure how that's going to
25:13
play out. But going back to Trump, Netanyahu, Mara Lago, what can we expect from this administration?
25:21
Trump looks at what's going on. He sees it, but he has not shifted gears as a consequence of it.
25:30
Certainly not yet. And the millure around Trump, I don't think Trump is steeped in a a Zionist
25:38
world view like Biden was. Yeah. But there are a cohort of Trump whisperers and Trump donors
25:47
uh and a Trump echo chamber which is first of all. Secondly, Netanyahu is nervous that Trump could
25:57
turn on him in many respects rightly so like the 12-day Israeli initiated military confrontation
26:06
with Iran when the president escalated to deescalate. success though for Netanyahu to pull him in and then immediately said and now stop and used exploitives with regard to to Netanyahu.
26:18
But what Natanya has thus far done is he has worked overtime to make sure that he's kept Trump
26:28
close and kept Trump on side. Six meetings, six meetings. No one's come close between Netanyahu
26:36
and Trump in under a year since Trump was sworn in. And Netanyahu now feels very good about the
26:43
direction of travel of this. Trump, as he has done in several instances, has intervened in
26:48
domestic Israeli politics, has openly called for and written a letter to the Israeli president to
26:54
pardon Netanyahu in his multiple uh criminal trials that are still in court at this moment.
27:01
And and I think we can say this with greater confidence after what's happened in Karacas, what happened with Venezuela, with the illegal kidnapping of President Maduro. Netanyahu for
27:13
now seems to have gotten Trump excited about this awesome toy of American military power and how
27:21
you can deploy it. Listen to Trump. When he talks about the strike against Iran, his eyes light up.
27:30
He talks about talking to the pilots. He talks about how that allowed him to reshape the Middle East. That's total nonsense. And you see how excited he was being in that control room in
27:39
Mara Lago watching that operation when he talks about that as well. And it feels like the neocons
27:45
have got their claws deep into Trump. Now, I don't think that's popular. I don't think it's popular with MAGA. So, if I belatedly address the bottom line of your question, um, Netanyahu always wants
28:01
to make sure that Trump's not veering off script too much, but thus far he will be very pleased
28:07
with the results because the areas of disagreement largely appear trivial. When Trump and Netanyahu
28:15
are disagreeing over the West Bank, Netanyahu is successfully saying that's about 70 errant
28:22
hilltop youth who had a tough upbringing and don't worry, we'll crack down. That's nonsense. And when Trump says you won't annex the West Bank, that sounds like a big deal. De facto, Israel has
28:34
gone so far beyond annexation. So Netanyahu and the Israeli system are very good at drawing a
28:41
line and saying, "Oh, okay. We won't." What are they doing? Destroying Palestinian infrastructure,
28:47
displacing more Palestinians in the West Bank, especially from refugee camps, tens of thousands. That has been the case at any time since 1967. uh trying to dismantle the ability of UNRA,
28:57
the Palestinian the the UN agency that deals with Palestinian refugees um to function, expanding
29:03
settlements, which always happens, but even by Israeli standards in an in an in a an intensified
29:11
way. So this is all manageable and then you get to the TIA question and as long as Netanyahu can
29:19
put a a block on an international force which as we discussed he has done so far successfully the
29:27
Israel Turka tension will play out in many ways but it's not yet playing out in ways that that
29:36
are overly concerning to the Israeli side because the Israelis No, America has leverage. In fact,
29:44
what we see and and here I just want to pause on this. It's really significant what this last
29:51
period has shown whether it's the response in Gaza and the conveyor belt of American weaponry
29:58
which Israel was totally dependent on as well as the political, economic, diplomatic, UN support,
30:03
or whether it's the the Iran 12-day confrontation where Israel was so reliant on. What this has
30:09
shown is the unprecedented degree of Israeli dependence on the US. I would argue that is
30:14
happening at a moment where Israel and support for Israel first has become also unprecedentedly
30:23
controversial inside American politics as we just discussed Tucker Carlson etc. And in parallel at
30:30
a moment where world geopolitics is shifting and I would argue America is not as powerful.
30:36
That may sound counterintuitive to people. Maybe we'll discuss that. And the leverage does not just
30:42
reside with America. And here I don't want to let others off the hook. There are states in the Gulf
30:49
with significant economic financial relations, significant sovereign wealth funds. They don't
30:55
deploy those. They could. Europe is crucial to Israel in what I call the three Ts. trade,
31:05
tourism, and tournaments. Europe is Israel's largest trade partner. Europe is where Israel
31:12
gets to show its citizens it's a normal country cuz you can travel visa-free even
31:17
without having to declare that you weren't involved in perpetrating war crimes in the last 2 years. You don't even have to sign a declaration to that effect when you when
31:25
you travel to Europe. And the normaly of being in football tournaments, being in Eurovision,
31:31
these things matter. It's how a society either receives the signal everything you're doing is
31:36
okay, it's normal, or receives the signal you have a problem because of what you're doing. So I don't want to let others off the hook and that leverage can then impact America. You talked about
MAGA movement split
31:48
Tucker Carlson and Candy Sing and Nick Fuentes and this sort of splinter this split within the MAGA
31:54
movement or at least the MAGA movement versus the neoconservatives. I'm I'm fascinated by this because until now it it did seem like there was a growing uh chorus I suppose of anti-Israel
32:07
feeling within the broader conservative Republican movement in America. Now Venezuela t you know and
32:14
the actions of the government in Venezuela tend to tell me that maybe MAGA isn't as as strong
32:20
as we had imagined it to be at least the base the MAGA base is as strong because of course you know
32:25
MAGA is all about non-intervention it's about um uh America first like h in your mind how important
32:34
is this trend and of course we're talking about Palestine how important is this trend in in
32:40
holding the admin administration to some form of accountability when it comes to its policies on on
32:47
Israel Palestine. I think if I'm going to be as as as kind of upfront about this as I can in January
32:56
of 2026, my response would be it's too soon to tell, right? Because this is a a phenomenon of
33:05
a phenomenon of recent vintage. A year ago, we wouldn't have thought. six months ago, even three,
33:12
four months ago, we wouldn't have thought we would be in this place in terms of this debate inside
33:18
the Macka world when it comes to Israel. Venezuela looks to me like first of all um what I said that
33:30
Trump has a little bit fallen in love with with how to play with these big powerful destructive illegal often um use of these toys. Um and it feels like chunks of the administration are being
33:44
co-opted by certain interests. Of course, you have the overriding interest of the self-enrichment of
33:50
the the the the family and and the the the hangers on, etc. But, you know, for a cohort of of of
33:58
Marco Rubio and some of those neocons, the Western Hemisphere, uh Central South America were always
34:05
the key playground. you know, Iran Contra, um, you know, going back to so many interventions. So,
34:12
back even further, go back to, uh, uh, Hende and Pino in Chile. Um, and here you have a president
34:19
that is apparently willing to go along with that. West Asia, Middle East, Israel, uh, the strategy
34:27
for a clean break paper, if people want to look that up, the neocons when, uh, Netanyahu first
34:33
came into power uh, in 1996. So there have been these attempts and it feels like there's a degree
34:39
of capture of that. Mhm. And therefore a lot of the attention is now what does he do next with
34:48
Iran. The Israeli agenda is quite transparent in that respect. Another strike on Iran and
34:54
not just another strike. This time they have put front and center the thing that was the subtext
35:00
last time which is regime change. Right. you can only and and you would I imagine be somewhat uh
35:09
surprised maybe not uh how this has played out in the Israeli media in the last few days. the degree
35:15
of of of hyperventilation around wow Madura was so easy headlines that that supposed leaks uh that
35:26
ha uh the Iranian leadership have already been in talks with Russia over where they will flee
35:33
to fine are they going to throw every asset they have at this do they have significant penetration
35:44
and capability to try and so discord inside Iran. The the regime itself, just like in in Israel,
35:51
the regime isn't very popular for many reasons. The regime in Thran isn't popular with m with much of the public. So, are they going to try and undermine that? Yes. Will they be successful?
36:01
Will they draw the Americans into this? But they got Trump to say locked and loaded if
36:07
you harm the protesters. Not an insignificant thing. But here is that question inside MAGA.
36:13
something he didn't do last time. America did one night of bombing on Iran. Something it's
36:21
unclear whether they'll do in Venezuela, but the narrative seems to be we will run this. But what
36:29
I really mean by that is we'll take their oil sellable to MAGA perhaps. And this is
36:34
an American interest. You're going to see the benefits as if they're all major shareholders
36:41
in American oil companies. by the way, or or refineries off the Texas coast where, you know, heavy Venezuelan crude is apparently going to be best refined. Uh but I think he has a real problem
36:52
and you see this fight on uh for MAGA. Um but I think there's another way of looking at this.
37:05
One way I look at the situation with Israel is that we are deep into uh the overreach of the
37:15
Zionism project. Okay. That it's taken on more than it can actually manage. M
37:23
uh that to the extent to which there was the successful management of its place in the region
37:32
and of its dispossession of Palestinians, it was because they were able to place a
37:38
an incremental and pseudo pragmatic vadier on this including hey actually there's a peace
37:46
process guys. The abandonment of that veneer, the extension of the ambitions of that project,
37:54
the hegammonic military dominationdriven ambitions of that project feel to me
38:03
um like they are beginning to boomerang. And I say that in the context of this of us talking about the US because this also feels to me like this could be at least partially the undoing of
38:18
of this Trump second term. I don't think his base are happy with the fact that he's spending more
38:24
time on international affairs. Yeah. Than on dealing with domestic breadandbut issues. uh
38:31
his obsessive pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize is not something that I think echoes positively. And
38:43
where I want to go with this is on something like Venezuela.
38:51
Are they actually going to invest heavily there? Are they going to run it as he has said? If not,
39:00
and if you've simply done a a a very Insta friendly, a very Tik Tok friendly capturing
39:09
of Maduro, but his people are still in charge, um people are going to see through that that
39:15
that was a game. And if even the whole national security strategy paper that was released towards
39:21
the end of 2025, Yeah. and this emphasis on the western hemisphere the Trump collo the
39:29
the donro doctrine right so Trump American domination in that sphere and let's face it
39:34
they've had election wins in Chile in Honduras he's intervened quite heavily in some of those
39:40
politics they propped up MLE to the tune of billions and helped him uh in a midterm
39:46
election um they tried to intervene in Brazil on Balsinaro obviously uh big headline and what
39:53
they've now done in uh in Venezuela. I look at that, that's interesting. Is America being pushed
40:01
back into having to deal primarily with its own backyard? Yeah, people are saying, uh, you know,
40:09
now we see America back asserting itself visav China. And I would look at that and say, well,
40:15
look again, maybe the opposite is true. Maybe. And and I think that when it comes to West Asia,
40:23
when it comes to the Middle East, when it comes to Palestine, yeah, we need to think,
40:29
all of us who care about a different future there, we need to think where whether our obsession with
40:37
America is excessive. We can't Yes, America has the most leverage with Israel. America is
40:43
not the only relevant geopolitical player. And ultimately, Israel has gone. And this is why I
40:48
mentioned this thing about Israeli overage. Israel has gone on a path where it is now exclusively I
40:56
would say reliant on military domination on its military power. It has therefore laid down the
41:03
gauntlet to anyone else. Can you match it on that field? Can you deter or contain Israel militarily?
41:12
And I think that touches on the Turkey issue which you raised earlier and and I think that that's
41:20
the question that people are slowly including after September 9th and the attack in Doha are
41:25
slowly coming to terms with. Wait a minute. the the challenge that uh a zero sum Zionism
41:37
on steroids poses to this region comes down to whether we can protect ourselves and our people.
41:44
And I don't think that's a clever place for for Israel to be. By the way, the thinking Muslim
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42:42
Tony, can I get your view on I mean Venezuela is a a conversation that uh that of course everyone
Venezuela and Palestine
42:48
is having at the moment and and I think there is a connection between Venezuela and Palestine in
42:54
particular when it comes to the European position because we have seen I mean Weston was on radio 4
43:00
this morning and uh you know it was very difficult for him to to find the words to even criticize
43:07
mildly the American administration for breaking international law uh we've seen across Europe
43:13
I mean Ursula Vander Lion's position you know president of European Commission has has has been
43:19
uh derisory really has been you know a horrible position regarding uh regarding Venezuela and
43:26
of course on Gaza we saw Mertz and and uh West and and Kristama here in the UK
43:34
uh who not only were silent but actually were condoning the positions of the siege on
43:40
on on Palestine on Gaza for example like where do you see uh you I don't know if you still see
43:47
yourself as a liberal who believes in this liberal world order where do you see the liberal world order heading where the key nodes of this of this sort of so-called um rules-based order are now uh
44:00
bending over backwards to to um uh to accept uh everything but the liberal world order. So I think
44:09
we we first of all just have to interrogate that phrasiology a little bit Jal which is
44:16
um there is international law. You are either in compliance with or in violation of international
44:24
law in your actions. The so-called rules-based international order, a western invention,
44:29
has always been a pathway to circumvent what is the actual multilateral architecture,
44:38
which is international law. So, we don't need a so-called rules-based international order.
44:43
We don't need a liberal order. You are either in compliance with international law or you are
44:48
not. And we have a long way as the so-called liberal lawabiding multi-ateral believing in
44:57
the architecture and institutions of that system. We are consistently and it's not a an invention
45:03
of the last couple of years or last couple of months uh a long way from being in compliance with that. Of course the problem is relations of power. Who can hold you to account when you are
45:16
not in compliance with that? Um, and then along came Russia, Ukraine, and shortly thereafter,
45:26
October 7th, violations of international law by Hamas, no question, by militant groups following
45:33
decades of Israeli violations of international law, which went unpunished, unquestioned,
45:40
and then Israel took it to a whole new level um with its subsequent genocidal campaign in Gaza
45:51
and perhaps the proximity in time of these things and perhaps the the degree to which the West got
46:02
on its soapbox and wagged its finger at the world and having imposed sanctions in a way which had a
46:11
very significant effect on for instance food security in countries that were never asked.
46:17
in countries which had in the global south so-called especially in countries which had witnessed western hypocrisy hard breaking news hypocrisy from anyone's part but they had
46:27
witnessed this for decades and suddenly they were being told well if you don't get this is the only litmus test that matters Russia and so I think that Europe and the west in the last two three
46:41
years have in such a transparent fashion been seen to be naked in the town square or perhaps
46:51
be wearing the Joker's hat and the Joker's little pointy shoes uh when it comes to the unseriousness
47:00
uh of their supposed adherence to some kind of international order. And I think along
47:05
comes Venezuela and what you've been seeing in those interviews uh radio 4 and elsewhere for
47:11
instance in this country but not exclusively in this country. You mentioned the uh the uh genocide promoting head of the EU uh Ursula Vanderlayion and and German politics has been
47:21
the biggest disgrace uh throughout this period. Um people don't pay attention by the way to the case Nicaragua brought at the international court of justice on German complicity in its arms trade
47:31
uh with Israel. Uh close that parenthetical. But you see these interviews over what's happened in
47:39
Venezuela. And for me, it's putting the bells on the hats and the pointy shoe jokers that
47:47
they have become. And then you kind of catch your breath and you say, "Okay, you're exposed,
47:54
but how does that help us, right? What do we do with this other than kind of belly laugh,
48:01
which doesn't get you anywhere?" And so I think we have to take very seriously the question of what
48:06
is the alternative? And for me the alternative resides in in particular two questions. And
48:16
those two questions are how do you hold that deriggation of responsibility that unwillingness
48:25
to uphold international legality the institutional multilateral architecture which we need in this
48:33
world because if X is not held to account then Y looks on that and says well I can do the same. So,
48:41
how do we accumulate the power? Cuz this is about relations of power at the end of the day. And
48:48
we've seen the power of the street. Sometimes power can be in the ballot box. Power can be
48:55
as a consumer in terms of what you choose to buy and not in power in unions in certain countries,
49:03
Italy and elsewhere. They have refused in docks to unload Israeli products. for instance.
49:12
So, A, how do we bring relations of power into play so people can't get away with this? And B,
49:20
what alternative are we offering? Because I don't I don't want to say h you've been caught and now we have no rules because that doesn't serve us. So, how do you rebuild the
49:32
architecture of because the laws themselves aren't bad. It's the it's the unwillingness
49:40
to apply them fairly and universally. That's the thing here. You have an international criminal
49:45
court arrest warrant against Israel's leader and former defense minister. And so you go after the
49:51
court. You don't go after the criminal. You have an international court of justice set of provisional measures already issued in January 2024 in the South Africa genocide case visa v.
50:02
Israel because Israel was suspected sufficiently of being in violation of that genocide convention
50:08
that immediate provisional measures were called for. Israel totally ignored and they were not held to account and there have been subsequent ICJ rulings including on the overall illegality
50:17
of the occupation on Israel's responsibilities visav uh aid provision and it just gone after 37
50:22
aid providing organizations even more. So how do you rebuild that architecture? And for me,
50:29
what we were shown in the pyrochnics of the weekend before we're having this conversation,
50:36
Jalal, in Karakas, was you can't do this with America as your hub. And it's Europe's choice now
50:42
to say mid-level powers, risen powers. China says it wants to be an upholder of the multilateral
50:51
order. Let's go with that. Let's work. We have to think about how we create a world that is
50:59
going to be safer for all of us. Cuz if you think that the kind of robotics and AI lavender and the
51:08
things that have been exposed that Israel has been using against Palestinians in Gaza, if you
51:13
think that ends there, then you're living in clout cuckoo land. So Danny, you you are a believer in
International law
51:18
international law still. And um I this morning I was listening to a a news piece and Steven Miller,
51:25
the deputy chief of staff, the the sort of ideologue of the Trump MAGA uh approach to uh to
51:32
to conservatism was talking about uh international law and he I think very candidly said there is
51:39
no real thing such thing as international law. What really matters is power and the projection
51:45
of power. And of course, America has a lot of power. Um, when you've got, regardless of if we
51:53
argue that America is declining or not, they have all of the fancy toys. They have the weapons of
51:59
war. They can they have what it takes to, you know, the the the sort of the military and and
52:05
uh and political will. Uh, and it remains to be, you know, to be a very powerful state. So in the
52:13
absence of a uh of a declined America as as you I think intimated previously do you believe that
52:24
power really is all that matters in international politics? So we've set up two things here which is
52:32
international law but it is not self imposing selfactualizing and that and that is the key
52:41
point that that unless you have the power to um to enforce that law. So the ICC as as I mentioned
52:50
can issue an arrest warrant. It doesn't have uh you know it doesn't have a force that can then
52:57
go out and capture the person etc. Yeah. Um or the International Court of Justice can make a ruling.
53:07
There's one tangent one can go on, which is these things actually open all kinds of
53:12
possibilities in national jurisdictions. And you're going to see these pursuit in terms of
53:18
uh companies that might be culpable that are going to have to defend themselves in court,
53:23
individuals who might have been responsible who might have to defend themselves in court. the bigger picture uh that you're putting forward here and that that I've tried to
53:32
stress is you have to think about relationships of power and you are right to point out that um
53:45
what I would argue is the clear trajectory of American decline does not mean that we can
53:55
now think of American power as being residual. It is still I'm not sure I'm going to go with
54:03
the word preeminent. It is still very prevalent though. It's very much there and more dangerous.
54:12
There is certainly, I think, a lot to make of the argument that says an America that refuses
54:23
to acknowledge the end of uniolarity, that refuses to acknowledge multipolarity, that can't deal with
54:31
that, and that is resisting how America operates in a different world, is a more dangerous beast.
54:39
Partly that's what we're seeing now. I think we're also going to witness its limitations. There are
54:47
crucial nodes that have been pointed out that that that are that are ever more clear to everyone.
54:53
So the extent to which the US can wield uh the the power of finance, the power of the dollar,
55:00
the dollar as the global reserve currency and there are very serious efforts now to to segue out of that to ddollarize to shield for countries to shield themselves from the
55:13
power of the Treasury to sanction to make you unaccessible to the global banking system. We've
55:19
just seen Europe go through this whole issue of what to do with frozen Russian assets. Um
55:26
where in the end they decided it was financially too dangerous to deploy those in the way that
55:33
the commission had suggested and well member state Belgium led on that but others others came on board. So I would argue we are in an extremely tense and fluid geopolitical moment.
55:52
I think the one can already see what some of those outcomes are. Yeah. I would suggest those outcomes
56:03
will not see the reassertion of unchallenged uniolar American primacy. How do you manage the
56:13
interregnum and how do you chart a course for what comes next? Those are questions which I'm
56:21
don't necessarily feel qualified to pontificate on. What I try and wrap my head around is what
56:29
does that mean for Israel, Palestine, West Asia, Middle East in that broader geopolitical context?
56:39
We've talked about the internal disagreements in America. We've talked about America uh Israel
56:45
being a more controversial issue in America. Uh we've talked about how America is and with
56:52
a European assist is actually deconstructing the system which served it very well. And and I think
57:01
all of those things don't bode well either for the US and certainly not for the country that is most
57:10
dependent on the US. And as I've suggested that Israel has gone off on this ever more adventurous,
57:20
I'm calling it overreach. You're occupying part of Lebanon. You're occupying part of Syria.
57:27
You're going out on a limb and recognizing a country that no one else has recognized in uh Somaliand. You're creating various zones of confrontation uh with Turkey,
57:39
but you're sending a signal to your entire surrounding region that either you accept our
57:48
military superiority and our hegmonic domination plans for this region or we will go after you. And
57:57
the gamble that you're taking, the risk you are placing as an as Israel is, can we pull
58:06
this off? And what you're basically gambling on is that the surrounding region will not be able
58:17
to cooperate sufficiently to challenge that. Will not be able to get its act together, if you like,
58:24
will not be able to mount either a political, an economic or a military challenge to that. That
58:32
it will remain dependent on America in its own ways. that its elites will pursue more of a narrow
58:39
interest. Let's be honest, that's worked for you so far. And will it work going forward? And
58:46
that's the question. And I I'm not deterministic in this respect. If you asked me to put money,
58:51
I would say no. But certain things need to happen in order for that no to become a reality.
59:01
Can those things happen in the state system that western colonialism created? It works
59:11
very effectively. Yeah. Where you have rather than thinking in pan regional, I'll use the expression
59:19
panarab or pan Islamic terms about shared interest. You have a small elite more focused
59:27
on this little bit of territory and my domination of that. That's the bed Israel is placing.
59:37
But what Israel is doing is it's making it harder for that system to sustain itself in
59:44
those ways. Why? Because it is acting as such a destabilizing radicalizing factor
59:50
in that region. Yeah. when the the premise you are positing is you have to accept our
1:00:04
eradicationist position towards Palestinians because Israel went on this journey where it
1:00:11
tried to say no one cares the world's moved on the region has moved on Abraham Accords normalization you don't you hate the Palestinians as much as we do and what the last two years
1:00:22
has proven is that at the popular level people do not want to see on their devices
1:00:34
in the case of the region fellow Arabs perhaps in the case of a broader region fellow Muslims perhaps but in a much broader sense fellow human beings who their own governments are complicit
1:00:45
in allowing the slaughter of and people don't want to see that and then Israel goes further
1:00:50
and it says if we can bomb this capital and that capital and Doha and Damascus, Beirut.
1:00:59
I don't think that is a sustainable project. But others will have to demonstrate the
1:01:05
unsustainability of that project to Israel. And two crucial things beyond that is that the
1:01:12
Palestinians will have to have a leadership that asserts a strategy and an agency which
1:01:19
plays to the vulnerabilities Israel has created. And right now you don't have that. You have division. You have um a group that is co-opted by this system running things in Ramla.
1:01:33
M you do not have the reclaiming of a Palestinian national liberation, whatever you want to call
1:01:41
it. And the other thing and and and this is super important, you have to have an answer to what is
1:01:52
the future for Israeli Jews as well. M the way you really go further in in sewing discord and giving
1:02:03
people a sense that their own system is failing them is by showing Israeli Jews. Zionism cannot
1:02:12
bring you security. But this can that it's not zero sum. The alternative to Israel's zero sum
1:02:22
project is not our own zero sum project where you Israeli Jews, you can be settler colonists, but we
1:02:29
understand you are a community here, a national community, a collective that is going nowhere.
1:02:36
And you are better off livinging under a system not of ethnationalist supremacy, but of equality.
1:02:44
super hard to do, but absolutely necessary to come forward with a project that addresses that
Mass violence against Palestinians
1:02:50
as well. So then let's talk about Israeli society and how it's changed over the past two years of of
1:02:56
mass violence. Um it seems to me that um there is a deeper radicalization. It seems to me that there
1:03:03
is a deeper desensitization towards uh violence against Palestinians. I mean, you you're someone
1:03:09
who knows Israeli society pretty intimately. like how do you characterize uh Israeli society
1:03:16
today? So I would agree with that description of of what of of of the the journey towards a
1:03:27
greater dehumanization um endorsement of of a project so egregiously uh structurally violent
1:03:40
and destructive towards Palestinians. You can't understand that without locating it in a history.
1:03:47
Yeah. In a history of denying Palestinian rights, freedom, self-determination, of dispossession,
1:03:53
of this this journey from conducting a Nakba to denying a Nakba to never coming to terms with a
1:04:04
Nakba to now saying we're going to do a second Nakba. Israel, you know, Israel went from Nakba one to Nakba 2 without ever acknowledging. And you know, let's look at how the 20% of Israel's
1:04:14
population who are Palestinian Arab, many of whom identify as such are treated in a system of
1:04:20
structural discrimination, of secondass citizenry. Even though Israelis are, you are very used to
1:04:28
going to a pharmacy or going to a hospital and being treated by a Palestinian Arab nurse doctor.
1:04:36
And yet you have now experienced, drawing on that history, taking it to a new level, I would argue,
1:04:45
you have experienced a process whereby societal consent for genocide has been manufactured. That
1:04:54
takes some reversing that I mean just to come to terms with what that means. Um,
1:05:02
and it does have to be reverse engineered, but you do not have at the moment the pieces in
1:05:08
place to undo that. And I would argue that Israeli Jewish society does not show signs of being able
1:05:18
to generate that from within. Um, I would love to tell you that uh, you know, with the ceasefire,
1:05:27
perhaps with the release of the Israelis who are being held, the scales have begun to fall from enough people's eyes and they're looking at this and they're saying, "I have to know what we
1:05:35
did there. We did this in my name. My neighbors did this. My members of my family were in the
1:05:40
military. It's a people's military." That's not who we are. We there there has to be a a
1:05:48
a form of of reflection, truth and reconciliation, penance. When I was a negotiator, the thing that
1:05:54
was never allowed in the room was was any process of truth and reconciliation, any consideration of
1:06:03
of making whole for either side. I'd love to tell you that that is now changing. It's not.
1:06:11
That doesn't mean that there are not uh corners, islands, outposts of that thinking amongst Israeli
1:06:20
Jews of challenging mainstream Zionist positions. It requires such a fundamental reset because
1:06:33
I don't know what one will call it if and when that day of change comes. But realistically,
1:06:39
what we're seeing is that the Zionist project has proven itself incompatible with Palestinian
1:06:46
well-being and therefore with Jewish security. I I would say it's it's failed to do what was
1:06:53
written on the tin. The most dangerous place to be a Jew today, I would argue, is in Israel. the
1:06:59
biggest danger to Jews today, I would argue. And I'm not saying there aren't dangers to Jews coming from other places. There is a historic animus that manifests itself in all kinds of ways today. I'm
1:07:08
not an anti-semitism denier. I'm just not someone who deploys that term in irresponsibly catchall
1:07:17
and intentionally uh devious ways. So I would argue the biggest danger to Jews today is what
1:07:25
Israel is doing and how Israel is trying to make us all complicit in what it is doing. So I would argue that Zionism has failed fundamentally as a project to do what was written on the tin because
1:07:36
what was supposed to be written on the tin was not dispossess the Palestinians. It was Jewish safety
1:07:42
and well-being. And there were different kinds of Zionism. There wasn't a statecentric uh Zionism as
1:07:48
the only choice. There was bationalism. Anyway, we are where we are now. There will need to be a
1:07:56
fundamental coming to terms with what is the best way forward. That's why I would argue that we have
Israeli Society
1:08:02
to offer Israeli Jews a different way forward, not uh a regime of militant ethnationalism that
1:08:10
lives and I would argue dies by the sword. But that's not happening yet in Israeli society.
1:08:16
Uh the good news is I don't think it's going to work out. And I think if people see,
1:08:24
and this is why what I argued about in terms of impunity, holding Israel accountable,
1:08:30
this is why I think it matters because if people see that it's not working, if people see that the
1:08:37
world doesn't treat it as normal, then they're not going to say, "Oh, thank you. We've just been waiting for this moment." No, they will push back. They will reject. But they will also say,
1:08:46
"What do we do? This isn't working anymore. Is it possible that we're doing something wrong?"
1:08:52
Dig up those things that we claimed were just lies and propaganda of what we did. Oh,
1:08:57
did we really do that in Gaza? We have to come to terms with this. I don't think we're incapable of doing that as a people. But it is going to have to go through a process. It is going to have
1:09:08
to be challenged. They are Israel is going to have to see that it can't get away with this.
1:09:14
My good news is I think that's possible. My bad news is it is not on the political horizon. 2026
1:09:20
will be a year of elections in Israel. There is no currently conceivable outcome to that election
1:09:28
where something fundamentally different is on the agenda because there is no Israeli opposition
1:09:33
to these policies. The most likely challenger to Netanyahu from the so-called opposition. Most of
1:09:41
the opposition leaders haven't challenged what's going on in Gaza, what's going on in regionally that aren't bringing a pragmatism to this. The most likely challenger is Naftali Bennett. He
1:09:50
was prime minister for a year. He has been uh he was a settler leader. People have forgotten
1:09:55
this. Bennett was in the same party as Betal Smotri from late 2019 to early 2021. They had
1:10:04
a party called Yamina, which is the Hebrew word for right. And they were in parliament together. They were on a slate together in an election. He is the supposed leader of the opposition. So,
1:10:15
will they put a more smiley face on the apartheid regime against Palestinians? Possibly. Do you have
1:10:24
uh an audience in Western politics that's dying to lap this up? Maybe you do. Is it going to take
1:10:30
Israel to a better place? No. Is it going to take Palestinians, the region to a better place? No. But crucially those who have been those whose political conscience has been awakened by what
1:10:40
they have seen in the last two years are they going to believe this? No they are not. So it
1:10:45
is about taking the challenge to that society to look in the mirror. You can only do that
1:10:53
if you also have um tools of leverage that get deployed and you look at relationships of power.
1:11:04
Um that's that's hard but that's the journey we have to be on. And you leave you've provided us
1:11:12
a very thoughtful analysis today. Thank you so much for your time. It's a real pleasure to talk to you Jello. Thank you. Asalam alaikum. Now, you've reached the end of this show, and the
1:11:23
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