Ep 242. - Israel’s Secret Plan to Divide Syria with Sami Hamdi
Israel has launched a series of strikes on Damascus, using the sectarian crisis in the south as a pretext to weaken the fledgling government. What are the plans for Syria moving forward? How does the Trump administration view Israel’s actions, and what is the future of the region? Sami Hamdi returns to the show to discuss these issues.
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Transcript - This is an automated transcript and may not reflect the actual conversation
Introduction
0:00
The Israelis are bombing Damascus not because they care about the Jews community. Alhi is the proxy by which
0:07
the Israelis are using in order to justify bombing Syria and potentially later on carving out some sort of
0:14
autonomous independent area. We are at the Koala Lumpa prophetic strategy summit with Sami Hamdi. We look at
0:20
Israel's bombings of Damascus this last week and ask, will Ahmed Ash succeed in
0:26
his quest to rebuild a united Syria? The Israelis are concerned that Ahmed Shara
0:33
might cement his rule in Syria in a manner that will later threaten the Israelis. Israelis are proposing a plan
0:38
to split Syria into four. After Syria is divided into four, we put a minority president in charge of Damascus itself
0:46
to ensure that Damascus remains a paralyzed central government. Is it fair, in other words, to blame all of
0:51
the Muslim rulers for the failure of Gaza? Syria is what will happen if the Muslim
0:59
nations continue to prioritize their national interest over the Um's interestal
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[Music]
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and welcome back to the thinking. Thank you for having me. Okay. Well, we're here at the Koala Lumpa Prophetic
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Strategy Summit. Alhamdulillah, I pulled you aside to talk about developments in Syria. Um, there's been a number of
1:24
tensions over the last few days. Israel has conducted a number of strikes, this
1:29
time probably more uh central to Damascus than than previously. Uh, and
1:36
it just seems to me that uh things are moving in a in a very problematic
1:41
direction for the new government. Now, all of this centers on Sueda and uh
1:46
centers around the Drews and in particular one particular faction of the Drews. I don't know if that's if that's
1:52
really so relevant, but one particular faction led by Hijeri. And um I I
1:58
suppose my first question is just bring me up to speed with why things have uh
2:03
have uh deteriorated to such a degree that uh there is now a a clear standoff
Druze community
2:11
between the Drews community uh in Seda supported probably by Israel or
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certainly supported by Israel and the central government. I think that the immediate reason is that
2:25
there has been a clash between what are referred to as Beduin tribes and between
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uh the Drews community. A truck was uh ambushed uh initially and uh a few
2:38
people were killed and then there was a retaliation and then another retaliation, another kidnapping, another
2:44
retaliation and then eventually the central government in Damascus decided to send
2:50
in a mediation group. M this mediation group was ambushed by
2:55
forces inside Sue by militias inside Sue and then the central government sent
3:01
more troops in order to quell the escalation between what they refer to as Beduin tribes and between the Drews
3:08
militias. When the central government forces came in to stop their escalation,
3:14
Hemmed Hiji and these and others around him decided to invite Israel to bomb the
3:21
central government of Damascus because Hemati fears that the government forces
3:27
that were withdrawn from Sue as part of an agreement signed between the people of Sueda and between Hikmat, between the
3:36
central government whereby the central government would sort of say just stay part of Syria but we won't keep our troops over there once gave a speech
3:43
where he said over my dead body will I allow these into Sue Ahmed made a concession which he said
3:51
I'm here to keep Syria united I'm not here to you know oppress minorities and the like I won't keep my forces in there
3:58
but you will recognize the central government
4:03
called in the Israelis to essentially say to the government in Damascus we don't want your forces
4:08
Yeah, that's the immediate reason the escalation between the bedins and between the Jews and the government trying to mediate and hemmedi trying to
4:16
ensure this mediation doesn't lead to the forces staying in so the the broader reason is that the Israelis are
4:23
concerned that Ahmed Shar might cement his rule in Syria in a manner that will later threaten the Israelis. And so the
4:30
Israelis have insisted to the Americans to impose a demilitarized zone in the southern part of Syria on top of
4:36
destroying the military installations that belong to Syria in order to ensure that Ahmed Shar can never be in a position by which he might threaten the
4:42
Israelis. Israelis are concerned that the Americans might be leaning towards allowing Ahmed to continue in power on
4:48
the basis that he'll be a war against Iran. The Israelis are firm in their
4:54
view that if Ahmed is going to stay in Damascus, he must have no control over Sueda, no control over the south, and he
5:00
must recognize a demilitarized zone. There's a very interesting article came out today on the new Arab in which although the Syrian government denies it
5:07
in which a Syrian official suggests that they did not expect that Israelis would
5:12
be unhappy with the forces going in in order to calm down that deescalation implying there's an agreement that the
5:18
Syrians have accepted in which okay in order to preserve the territorial integrity we won't keep our troops in
5:24
Sueda but it remains part of of Syria and the Syrian government according to
5:29
this report the indication is that if we're speaking on behalf of the Syrian government that we thought if we put our
5:35
troops into deescalate the Israelis won't react in this way. I think that
5:41
the Israelis are bombing Damascus not because they care about the Jews community. I think they are bombing
5:47
Damascus to try to force a confrontation by which Ahmed Sh will make a mistake
5:55
that will make the Americans come in and carve Syria into the three pieces that
6:00
the Israelis won. The reports last night from at least from the time of the recording suggested that the ceasefire
6:05
had been reached and that might indicate that the Americans are not entirely on board with what the Israelis want to achieve. But what is clear is that the
6:12
Drews in Sueda, it appears that they are in a no man's land whereby they are not
6:19
entirely willing to accept the new central government in Damascus. And Hij's case he would rather bring a rabid
6:26
genocidal army to bomb his own people to bomb his own countrymen than allow Ahmed a fellow Syrian to have any control over
6:33
Sueda. I mean how much of uh the actions of uh HRI uh is actually uh in collusion
Collusion with Israel?
6:39
with the Israeli state in order to achieve this plan of creating a demilitarized zone and maybe fragmenting
6:45
is uh Syria. So when Ahmed entered Damascus, the new government that was established essentially reached out to
6:52
the minorities to calm tensions and to say that we're not here to cause you any concern. what can we do to prove that
6:58
we're not here to oppress you and the like and one of the agreements that was made with the leaders in Sueda was that
7:04
the government forces would not be present in Soueda itself they would be able to run their own security but they
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would be part of the Syrian state Ahmed Ashara and the government in Damascus managed to secure the agreement of the majority of the leaders of the
7:16
Jews community but Hikmat Al-Hiji one of the prominent leaders of the Jewish community over there adamantly rejected
7:22
the deal that was made with Damascus and even though he nominated finally agreed
7:27
to the proposal that the government forces wouldn't be there. It appears
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that Hiji is the proxy by which the Israelis are using in order to justify
7:39
bombing Syria and potentially later on carving out some sort of autonomous independent area in southern Syria that
7:46
the Israelis can then use as a launchpad to further antagonize the central government in Damascus. It's always
7:53
important to remember that when Ahmed Shara entered Damascus, he called a meeting of the 28 different factions
7:59
that had fought against Bashad. One of those factions didn't turn up and that faction belongs to that southern area
8:04
where Sue is and those areas as well. That faction is considered to be more on the pro- UAE side of things as well. So
8:11
the concern is that Israel wants to use Hikma to keep that southern part out of
8:17
Ahmed Shal's hands. And the concern is that it may not just be the Israelis. It may also be the UAE who Ahmed has been
8:24
leazing with on the basis that the UAE might be able to reign in the Israelis who are trying to force that agenda in
8:30
the south. But it's not a given that the UAE is necessarily against the Israeli agenda there.
Donate to Baitulmaal
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[Music]
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[Music]
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[Music] So can we talk about Ahmed Shara's uh
Ahmed Alsharaa strategy
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strategy so far. Uh when he came to power, of course, uh Syria was uh in
9:26
tatters. You know, civil war had ravaged the country and he recognized the need uh for renewal for need the need to
9:33
redevelop uh this war torn country. And so he had to buy him tie he had to buy
9:39
some space for himself uh and for his country and for his fledgling government
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uh in order to in order to breathe in order for his government to survive. uh as a result of that he has uh placated
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maybe that's a strong word but there is a a a a you know a plecation I suppose of the Israelis despite Gaza there's a
10:01
plecation of the Israelis uh there's a uh a relationship that has been formed
10:06
with the Arab governments and that has given them uh uh a a direct line into
10:11
the Trump presidency. Uh some would say that's a very naive uh strategy. Some
10:17
would say that there's a master plan there. I mean that's you know he's bought himself and his people some space
10:22
like how do you assess Ahmed Shar's strategy so far? One of the things that is worth noting is that Ahmed Shar's
10:29
speech that he gave regarding the events that took place in Sueda did not mention Israel by name but
10:34
rather blamed those who support Bashar Assad. And there is a prevalent opinion
10:40
and view that a lot of the killing that took place of some of the Drews members,
10:45
Jews community members in Sue that led to the escalation was conducted by who
10:51
are trying to spark a confrontation between Ahmed Shara and the Israelis. It's important to remember that Assad
10:56
and Iran in particular are very frustrated with the idea that they've lost Syria to those who were against the
11:04
Iranian project in Syria itself and Ahmed suggested that theist regimes are
11:09
still trying to cause that sort of instability. The reason why I start with that to answer your question is it's
11:14
important to remember that when we're talking about Ahmed in Syria, he's not established yet. And what I mean by that
11:20
is he's taking over a Syria that's been ravaged by Iran and Russia, that's been utterly destroyed by Iran and Russia,
11:26
where large sections of the community were forced out of their homes by Iranian militias who sought to
11:31
demographically change large areas of Syria in order to enable a bridge from Tehran all the way to Lebanon by which
11:38
they would be able to assert control and hedgemony over the region. Ahmed has to deal with the displacement of people
11:43
caused by Iran and Russia. He has to deal with the fact that Damascus only has 1 hour of electricity a day because
11:50
of the way in which Iran and Russia squeezed Syria and its resources in exchange for protecting Bashar al-Assad.
11:58
It's important to note that Syria itself in the northeast, you still have the the
12:03
separatist Kurdish factions that are still debating the extent to which America will abandon their support for
12:09
them in order to assess whether they should continue making their bid for independence or sign some sort of deal
12:15
that would enable them to live to fight another day. You have in Tus and some of the Alawi areas where Iran has a strong
12:20
presence still that revolted even though Ahmed issued a pardon for those for many
12:26
of those who supported the crimes that were committed by the Iranians in Syria itself. We saw Tus flare up and many pro
12:33
Iran accounts supporting that flare up. Many of prosid supporting that flare up almost as if to say that if it's not us
12:40
who are in power then let Syria burn. I think that Ahmed is also struggling in the sense that Syria remains mired in
12:47
debt and has no real income that will allow allow it to rebuild Syria. It's
12:52
reliant on foreign funding. Syri Turkey doesn't have that money. Turkey continues to struggle with an economic
12:58
crisis to the extent that it has reconciled now with the UAE in exchange for a $50 billion trade deal. It's
13:05
reconciled with the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman in exchange for money. and essentially it's tried to reorient its foreign policy in a way
13:12
that doesn't offend the UAE so that it doesn't jeopardize that $50 billion trade deal. So the Turkey doesn't have
13:17
the money to help to finance the reconstruction of Syria. So Ahmed in this case cannot rely on money coming
13:23
from the US either. It took a while for the US to lift some of the sanctions on Syria itself. But also Donald Trump is
13:30
not inclined to spend US taxpayer money to rebuild Syria given he's been trying to withdraw from Syria for a long time.
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The EU are unlikely to commit the funds to rebuild Syria either. The French won't do it. The Germans won't do it.
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Ahmed Shar can't necessarily go to Russia and China for fear that it might provoke sanctions from the US again. And
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therefore, he's found that his only option is to go to the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and make a
13:54
promise that he will not allow criticism of Saudi Arabia inside Syria itself. He will not allow anyone to plotate Saudi
14:00
Arabia inside Syria itself in exchange for some money. and bin Salman is not yet fully inclined to support Ahmed
14:07
Shar. There was the payment of a of a of a symbolic $15 million IMF loan in order
14:12
to suggest some goodwill towards Syria itself. The Saudi crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman lobbyed Donald Trump to lift
14:18
the sanctions on Syria as a gesture of goodwill. Ahmed Ashara went to the UAE to also ask for money and to also say to
14:25
the UAE that let bygones be bygones. I know you guys tried to kill me. I know you're worried about the Arab Spring,
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but I promise we will not be exporting the Arab Spring. We will not be like the Iwan who were in Egypt and in Tunisia.
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We will not be those who support any instability in the UAE itself. And can you give me a line towards the Israelis
14:43
so that they might stop bombing the south? I need a piece of 10 15 years so that I can rebuild Syria. My point is
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that your question supposes that Ahmed has a range of options at his disposal that he can take. What I'm trying to say
14:56
is he has no options available to him. There is a famous saying in which it says people often look at the decision I
15:02
make not the choices that I had and I think that when it comes to Ahmed the reality is Syria is a Syria
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is not in any position to be able to stand on any issue whatsoever. When you think about the fact that Israeli planes
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were able to fly over Syrian airspace to go and bomb the Iranians. The Syrians had no means to prevent it. Had no power
15:22
to prevent it. had no tools to prevent it because the tools that were under Bashar al-Assad, the weapons were
15:28
destroyed by the Israelis when Ahmed Shar came to power because the Israelis were satisfied that Bashar also
15:40
important that Assad could be trusted with Sue. Ahmed Shar cannot, the
15:45
Israelis believe that Assad could be trusted with Sue that Ahmed cannot.
15:50
Assad could be trusted with anti-air missiles and the like. Ahmed Sharak cannot. Bashar Assad could be trusted to
15:58
have Syria under his control. Ahmed cannot be trusted to have Syria under his control. Because the perspective
16:04
from the Israelis is that this means of toate as you put it. For me, I call it to buy time and to appease and the like
16:14
in the battle of the prophet Muhammad sallallahu alaihi wasallam went to
16:20
the and said to me, "What do you think if we offer some money to
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as a tribute to get them to abandon the alliance and go home so we can break this alliance that has gathered all
16:34
against us?" The prophet Muhammad wasallam was aware that he was in an existential crisis that he was literally
16:40
all of Arabia had gathered against him and he did not have the means or the resources to drive them back. So
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Muhammad sallallahu alaihi wasallam our beloved prophet goes to and says to him
16:54
let us buy a piece let us plate and buy a piece that will allow us to at
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least build some strength to prevent this scenario from happening again. Now in the scenario of
17:07
responds and says if you order us to do it we'll do it. We'll give the money to but before you came to Medina as a tribe
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we would never condescend to give anything. It's it's really beneath us as a tribe and we would prefer as to dig
17:22
our heels in and to resist than to give them even a penny. My point here is the
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prophet Muhammad has not suggested something outrageous and rejecting it is not doing something outrageous. My point
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being is that the idea of saying to an enemy that you're not my priority today
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that I want to establish a peace today I want to break an alliance that is crippling my country is not a bid in the
17:49
s of the prophet Muhammad sallallahu alaihi wasallam. So if anybody in Ahmed Shar's position in my opinion would do
17:56
exactly what Ahmed is doing, Iran ravaged the area and is still supporting
18:01
Assadist regimes to undermine my government. That's my priority at the moment. Israel, I don't want to look at
18:07
you now for the next 10 years. I'm not a threat to you at least for the next 10-15 years. Just get out of my country.
18:13
Stop bombing Sueda. I'm not even interesting in retaking the Golden Heights. I don't have the power to get the Golden Heights. I'm trying to get
18:20
Iran off my back. I'm trying to get these militias to stop conspiring against me. I'm trying to restore the
18:26
demographics of Syria that Iran changed. And it's not that I agree with Ahmed or disagree with Ahmed Shal. Is that this
18:33
is the reality of the situation that Syria finds itself in because it's been ravaged so much. And I'll finish on this
18:39
point. Those who criticize what Ahmed is doing tend not to suggest an alternative or
18:45
what Ahmed could do. For example, Turkey is supporting Syria today. But if Ahmed
18:51
Shar takes a position that makes the Americans go hard against Damascus, does anyone really believe that Erdogan will
18:57
stick his neck out for Ahmed Shara? If the Americans come down hard on him, they will abandon him in a heartbeat
19:03
because send like Turkey interest comes first before Syria interest comes in. Whether you
19:09
agree with it or not is a completely different issue. But the point that I'm saying is that Ahmed in the limited Malaz is here from one part who went to
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Syria and I assume you've seen him and you've talked to him and the like Malaz went to areas in Syria that look like
19:24
Gaza not too far from Damascus. when he suggested that he wanted to hold some
19:30
conference or the like or or or the like that maybe people should go to Damascus and try to reor he he highlighted that
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one of the reasons it's difficult to do so is the very basic utilities and necessities in Damascus are not
19:43
available because it's a city that's been ravaged so I throw the question back at you J given you're the ones
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represented what is Ahmed Sharat supposed to do and that's why I don't put the blame on Ahmed I put the blame
19:56
on those who destroyed Syria for a sectarian agenda. I put the blame on those who sacrificed the unity that
20:02
transcends sectarianism in order to impose a sectarian agenda that led to
20:07
this river of blood in Syria where now you have Israel bombing suede and imposing on Damascus not only that
20:14
golden heights can't go to Syria but Sue itself is not allowed to go to Syria and the only thing Ahmed can do is is agree
20:22
to this demilitarized zone when he went to when he sent his official to Aabaijan and agreed to respect that demilitarized
20:28
zone just in order to save himself. And it's important to note here, the Israelis want to kill Ahmed Shar when
20:34
they're bombing the presidential palace. They didn't miss Ahmed Shar. They wanted to say to Ahmed, "We can get to you.
20:41
Damascus is not far. We can kill you. The only reason we're not doing so is because Trump won't allow us to do so.
20:48
Trump is Trump is the reason. Not Erdogan. Trump won't allow us to kill you because you're trying to convince
20:53
him that you're focused on Iran. You're not focused on us. But we're going to convince Trump you're a liar. We're
20:58
going to convince Trump that the only reason that you're trying to make this peace is you want to destroy us in it.
21:03
We're going to convince Trump that he shouldn't allow you the 10 years to rebuild Syria. That he shouldn't allow you the 10 years to build an army. He
21:10
shouldn't allow you the 10 years to build it. My question here is this. Why are those arguing against Ahmed sounding
21:17
more like the Zionists than they do sounding like the Syrians who are asking for some time to rebuild their country?
Trump administration support
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Right? So this plan really hinges on um approval from the Trump administration
21:28
or at least the Trump administration needs to maintain a level of support for
21:33
uh Ahmed Shara's um uh 10-year objectives or 15ear objectives as well
21:39
as the Israelis uh remaining at bay because the American administration
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uh limits their actions in Syria. I mean, how likely is that? The plan
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doesn't hinge on Trump supporting Ahmed, right? The plan hinges on Trump withdrawing
21:57
from Syria on the basis that he doesn't really care about Syria and Ahmed is not a big threat. Ahmed is not seeking
22:05
American support. Ahmed is seeking what Trump has always indicated that he wants
22:10
to do, which is to withdraw from Syria entirely. Right? Trump withdrew from Afghanistan
22:16
when all of the US officials revolted against the idea and he imposed it and Trump withdrew and what happened the
22:22
Taliban took over and Trump and Biden or Trump in particular finds no reason to get back involved in Afghanistan. In
22:28
fact, he doesn't even care. Yeah. What Ahmed wants is not American support. Ahmed wants Trump to do what he
22:35
did in Afghanistan. He wants him to leave completely and just leave me to go and build and Trump is inclined to do
22:41
so. When Ahmed Shar goes to Donald Trump and says to him, "Mr. President, I'm not a threat to America. I'm not going to
22:47
send people on planes to go and hit the Twin Towers. I just want to rebuild Syria and focus on my own country. I
22:53
just want to stop the Iranians from brutalizing my country. I'm not even in a position, Mr. President, to threaten
22:59
the Israelis either." Trump turns around to his officials and said, "This guy sounds like a nice guy. The guy fights
23:04
the guy whoever." Maybe we we heard a lot of things about the guy. But to be honest, there's nothing here for America
23:10
to be concerned about. There's no reason for me to stay here. There's no reason for me to do to spend
23:17
taxpayer money to send US troops to die for something that I don't see any immediate interest in. If he says he's
23:22
going to stop Iran from marauding that keeps the peace in the region, let the guy do what he wants. I'm going to go back to the White House and try to
23:29
prevent the Jeffrey Epstein files from being released. Trump is saying, "I just don't want to get involved in Syria." Yeah. The Israelis are saying, "Mr.
23:36
President, you need to stay in Syria. You need to stay there because you need to make sure that Syria doesn't remain
23:42
united." And the Israelis are struggling to give a credible argument that is stronger than Ahmed Shar's argument,
23:48
which is just leave and I'll look after Syria itself. So, it's there's important distinction here. He's not looking for US support. He's saying, "Lift the
23:54
sanctions and you can bring American companies to invest. You can even build a Trump tower for all I care. just get
24:00
your troops out so I can establish security over Syria because I want to prevent Iran from establishing new militias in Syria. And Trump when he
24:07
hears those things logically Trump turns around and says, "Oh my god, this is really good. It's really awesome. I like
24:12
what I'm hearing." It's the Trump agrees with the theory. Biden wouldn't have.
24:17
Harris wouldn't have. Biden and Harris would have gone with the Zionist project and they would have gone and said we
24:23
need to stay in order to support the Kurds. Why are the Kurds the separatist Kurds? Not all Kurds cuz these
24:29
separatist Kurds massacred a lot of Kurds who were against them. It's like in Bosnia when we talk about Serb Kats and Bosnians a lot of Croats
24:35
supported Bosnia and Mate Bob a famous Kat commander even abandoned a city that
24:41
had a Croat majority because these Kats believed in Bosnia and he abandoned the defense of the city and let them get
24:46
slaughtered by the Serbs because he said these are self-hating Jews. These are these are self-hating crates.
24:52
The point being is that the reason that the Kurds in the northeast, the separatist Kurds are negotiating with
24:58
Damascus, is precisely because Trump wants to leave Syria and they're worried they're going to be completely
25:03
abandoned. The reason why I make this distinction is Ahmed is being very
25:08
careful not to sell out. The Israelis are trying to say that we're normalizing
25:13
ties. Ahmed is saying, "I just want a ceasefire. I'm not normalizing. I just want a ceasefire." So there's been no
25:19
talk from I don't think government Ahmed when he talks to the Israelis is
25:25
proposing normalization. I think Ahmed is talking to the Israelis
25:30
indirectly and saying to them that guys the 1972 ceasefire
25:35
I will respect it. I want the the pause in the war. The Israelis are saying this we can market
25:43
it as normalization. Trump is saying we can market it as normalization. I think Ahmed is saying market it however you
25:50
want. As far as I'm concerned, this is just a ceasefire that I'm doing it that's based on the terms of the 1972.
25:55
It's not normalization like the way that the UAE is doing. Yeah. I don't necessarily see anything
26:00
politically wrong with this approach given the circumstances that Syria finds
26:06
itself in. And I think as long as Trump is in power, not the Democrats, Trump, I
26:12
think Ahmed Shar can make a very serious case for a complete American withdrawal from Syria, which the Israelis would
26:19
consider to be a catastrophic disaster because it would allow Ahmed Shar then to establish himself and restore Syria's
26:25
territorial integrity and then Erdogan and these others can begin the process of rebuilding Syria. Um, Sammy, I've
Impressed with Alsharaa?
26:31
never really heard from you ever that you're impressed with the maneuverings
26:38
of one of the Muslim rulers. It seems to me that you are quite impressed with the
26:44
way Ahmed Ashara has bought himself some space here. I mean, is that a is that a fair um assessment of your analysis of
26:51
Syria so far? I don't think it's a case of being impressed at all. Yeah, I played football or soccer because I
26:58
know you have a big American audience. May Allah forgive them for the wrong terminology, but I played football for most mo most for I say most of my life
27:05
like I'm an old man, but I played football and I played it county level and you know really in any Yeah. But listen, I'm a decent
27:11
player. But anyway, so I would never I remember I remember I remember a coach
27:17
used to say to we we were playing once on the pitch and someone from substitute bench was like, "Oh, you should have seen that pass." And the coach said,
27:23
"Everyone's a genius on the bench." Yeah, everyone is in news. It's not that I'm saying I'm impressed. I'm saying I get
27:28
it. I'm not saying that he's a masterclass in politics. I'm saying I understand it. I understand when you're
27:34
broken, I can't ask you to go and liberate Philstine. I'm aware of the pains that the Syrians have gone
27:39
through. I'm aware of the destruction that went through Syria. I went to those refugee camps. I know the stories. I
27:46
know the disaster. I know the sheer destruction and scale of it that took place in Syria. I know it is objectively
27:54
impossible for Syria to do anything of value at this moment in time without a
28:00
process of reconstruction and rebuilding of the country at least to a standard and level whereby it's able to assert
28:06
any sovereignty at all. And I think Ahmed understands that in the way that when he enters into Damascus the first
28:13
thing that he does is issue pardons, amnesty, sends people to allay the fears of the minority communities. In every
28:19
speech, he tells his own troops. Don't violate the prisoners. Don't transgress against them. Saying to them, don't give
28:26
an excuse for people to say that we're coming in and taking revenge. I think that reflects that Ahmed Shah is aware
28:32
that the greatest danger to his rule is the perception that he's coming to bring
28:37
more destruction. And I think that Syria deserves to be given a chance to dictate its own fate after 10 years of being
28:45
dictated to by Iran, by Russia, by Qatar, by Turkey, by Saudi, by UAE, by
28:52
Obama, and then Trump. Not Trump didn't really dictate too much, but by Biden and these places. It's not that I'm
28:57
impressed, it's that I get it. And I think sometimes politics is not about whether you agree with something or not.
29:02
Politics is the science of possibilities, the science of human nature. You can't say to a "Go
29:08
and fight me a battle and go and win." You say to the before you can even go out to battle, "Go and see a
29:14
doctor. Go and get crutches. Go and wait for your leg to recover. Take this medication. Take these pills. Take when
29:20
you're ready, then you go out." You're asking a guy on crutches to go and do something that no able-bodied person is
29:26
able to do at this moment in time. That's how I see Syria at this moment. Yeah. Because I mean from the outside and I get the point about commenting on
Emotional politics
29:33
the bench, but from the outside um there's a lot of emotion and a lot of expectations and your point is you've
29:41
got to put yourself in a position of Syria and you've got to understand where Syria is in in a sense politics is a
29:48
very unemotional science. Is that what you're basically saying here? Human beings are created with mind and body,
29:55
mind and soul. The the the rational and the emotions. Politics, you can't
30:00
separate the two. Whenever somebody says, you know, we need to take the emotion out of politics. The whole
30:05
essence of politics is human nature. It's governed by emotions whether you like it or not. Right? And objective nature is always skewed by
30:12
your own experiences. We It's like for example, the other day I think was with some I think it's with your team and may
30:17
Allah forgive them, they got iPhones and Samsung. So they had the iPhone there and I said two people can look at the
30:23
iPhone and I can dislike it and they can like it. We're both looking at the same thing but as a result of our experiences
30:30
because I had a MacBook at 17. I took it for a repair shop. They charged me ridiculous price. I said I'm never buying it again even though I bought a
30:35
MacBook recently. But anyway, the point that I'm saying is you can have different perspectives. It's not about taking the emotion out of it.
30:42
It's about caring about the people, caring about more than yourself. The Syrians are traumatized.
30:49
This the Syrians just came out of a war like a brutal war in which Iran believed
30:55
it was better to massacre the Syrian people than allow them to have freedom. The Russians believed it was better to
31:01
bomb them into oblivion than allow them to topple a dictatorial regime that denied them freedom. The Americans
31:07
believed that Syrians couldn't be trusted to choose their own leaders. So we would prefer to leave Syria paralyzed
31:14
where neither Assad is strong and neither the Syrians are able to have their own freedom. M the Qataris supported on the basis they
31:21
said that we shouldn't let the Syrians choose unless they vote for our allies. The Saudis said we can't trust the Syrians to choose because they might
31:27
choose Katar as allies. Yeah. The Syrians are a traumatized people. And it's not about the case of being
31:32
unemotional. It's a case of being emotionally intelligent enough to actually care about the Syrians to
31:38
actually care about a Syrian who lost 12 family members. J when I was going across America and and Australia and you
31:43
know people would bring up the issue of Iran and unity between the sex and I'm not getting involved in that issue. At this particular moment in time,
31:50
I would always have a Syrian after the talk who'd come to me and say to me, "Brother Sami, is it a sign of weak ean
31:57
on my part if I am unable to join the ummah in celebrating the butchers of my
32:02
family because they fired some missiles onto Israel. Meaning that the lack of
32:09
emotion towards the plight of the Syrians by the majority of the ummah
32:15
meant that Syrians went from how dare you to please listen to us and then some
32:20
Syrians got to the point of am I the one who has weak ean because I'm unable to
32:26
cheer the people who gathered my family in ymuk and shot the daylights out of them because of a sectarian agenda. Like
32:33
that's how bad. And that's what I mean when you say politics is not about emotion. I'm arguing here it's about emotion.
32:38
For once feel for the Syrian people. I'm not saying you specifically feel for them and care about them. You
32:44
want them now to pay a price to go into war. I'm not saying that I agree with Ahmed is doing. And I'm not saying I disagree. I know it sounds like I'm
32:50
flirting and dancing with it. I don't need to. I I have no responsibility. Allah will not ask me about what Ahmed
32:55
Sh did. What I'm saying is if you can show empathy for what the Syrians went
33:00
through, your analysis will be a million times better. If you can understand what the Syrians are experiencing and feeling right now,
33:07
then you will understand what Ahmed is doing and you'll understand where he's going and you will come to the conclusion that in my opinion is my
33:13
conclusion, which is that for all of the talk of Ahmed placating, my question here is this. Why aren't the Israelis
33:20
feeling comfortable with his placating? Why are the Israelis continue concerned? Why aren't the Israelis satisfied with
33:26
what people are terminaliz people are terming the normalization process? Why are the Israelis bombing Sue and bombing
33:33
Damascus and bombing the like desperately trying to get the Americans to remove Ahmed? Why are the UAE and and
33:38
Israel desperately trying to remove Ahmed to put a minority president in
33:44
power to ensure that majoritarian rule is never conducted in Syria because they fear a majority rule Syria because it
33:50
will allow a Syria that is built because they fear that a strong Syria won't be a city won't be a state that normalizes
33:57
with Israel. It will be a state that threatens the Israelis. What I don't understand as a political analyst is how
34:03
the Zionist conclusion is that Ahmed Shara is a danger. But that conclusion
34:08
that the Zionists have is the opposite of those that you're talking about now who are looking Ahmed and saying no,
34:13
he's complying with the Israelis. Why are you saying the Israelis are happy when the Israelis are saying that they're not happy? It's a very weird and
34:18
construed argument. So So what is the Israeli position then towards Syria? I mean, it's never going
Israeli position
34:24
to tolerate uh a an effective Muslim state on its borders. Um, it probably
34:30
wants a fragmented uh Syria. Um, like from this point onwards, where do you
34:36
think the Israelis will go? Israelis proposed the Israelis are proposing a plan to split Syria into four. M
34:43
they want the southern part where SUA is to be an autonomous region that belongs to the Jewish community with no central
34:48
government presence that the Israelis will commit between quotation marks to protect it whenever the central
34:53
government tries to assert itself in Sue. They're trying to establish a proxy in Sue in the south and that's the first
35:00
province that they want to create in which they split Syria. The second province they want to split is the
35:05
northeast. They want to convince Trump to adopt the Democrat Biden Obama policy
35:11
of supporting the separatist Kurds in the northeast, giving them an autonomous region. That's where the oil is. It will
35:18
make Damascus dependent on them for resources. Meaning that Damascus will never have the money to rebuild, never
35:24
have the money to invest in military, never have the money to rebuild the societies that have been broken, and it
35:30
will remain economically paralyzed. So the Israelis are campaigning and lobbying on behalf of the separatist
35:35
Kurds, for America to stay in Syria because Trump wants to leave and for the Americans to establish the northeast
35:40
autonomous region that belongs to either the SDF or the separatist Kurds. And then the Israelis as a concession are
35:47
considering a northern territory where Turkey can impose its own allies and its
35:52
own proxy to say to Erdogan, look, we don't want you to push too hard. We'll give you something. You can have the
35:58
northern part where Idlib is and these areas as well. You can put your own people there and that will help you to
36:04
keep this Kurdish autonomous region in check. The UK can can keep clashing between yourselves and that will leave
36:09
Damascus paralyzed. Ahmed can then stay in Damascus. We don't mind Ahmed Shar there in Damascus. But Ahmed at this
36:16
point will have no resources and ability to be able to rebuild Syria. The Israeli plan doesn't actually include Ahmed. The
36:22
Israeli plan goes even further and says after Syria is divided into four, we put a minority president in charge of
36:29
Damascus itself to ensure that Damascus remains a paralyzed central government. The way Baghdad is a paralyzed central
36:36
government in Iraq due to the sectarian divisions that are divided up where the president has to be from a certain sect
36:42
or certain ethnicity, the prime minister has to be from a certain sect, the head of parliament from a certain sect and
36:47
they divide the positions this way. the wayah in Lebanon or the Lebanese system is divided in the sex and I think the
36:54
UAE highlighted the Israeli plan in 2018 whereby Ysef I think he was talking to
37:00
the CSIS or Brookings I don't know which think tank when he was asked what's the ideal solution for Syria he said the
37:07
ideal solution is one like Lebanon preventing majority rule because it might bring religious parties to power
37:12
and ensuring there is an over representation of minorities in parliament to ensure that no one as the
37:19
main power. What the UAE meant was we want to make sure UAE remains paralyzed. That's the Israeli plan for Syria.
37:24
So the Israel ones have fragmented a weak region uh so that they can dominate
Israel and America
37:30
that region. And until now uh the Americans have sort of coalesed and accepted that type of that that
37:36
understanding. But uh the Trump administration doesn't see why it needs
37:43
to be present in Syria or at least uh the Trump administration uh because of MAGA because of its sort of base because
37:50
of its sort of uh ideological inclination require regards this American policy in the Middle East to be
37:57
pretty much based on folly. There's a very good article that I encourage people to read. I think if you search on
38:02
Google James Jeffrey uh El Monitor, I think it's with El Monitor. Jeff James Jeffrey was the US envoy to
38:08
Syria. He he served under Obama and under Donald Trump. Yeah. And James Jeffrey was asked in this
38:14
interview after he left his post, what was it like working for Obama and what was it like working for Trump? And to
38:19
paraphrase, James Jeffrey essentially said that under Obama, Syria policy was really much in the hands of myself and
38:25
Sentcom. And you know, Obama generally didn't have a clear vision of what should be done in Syria, but he gave it
38:31
to the bureaucrats. He said, under Trump, it was different because Trump every single day would ask us why are we
38:36
in Syria for what? He said we used to spend more energy convincing Trump to
38:42
stay in Syria than we did actually focused on Syria policy. Yeah. And he said one of the reasons why
38:47
is that Trump was always on the phone with Erdogan. And Erdogan would keep telling him you don't need to be in Syria. I'm a NATO ally. I can look after
38:53
security in Syria myself. And he said Trump would come back to us and say Erdogan has offered to look after
38:58
security in Syria. Why do we need to do it? Why do I need to spend taxpayer money on it? Why do I need to send US
39:04
troops? It's not a case of US policy changing. It's Trump. Trump is the one
39:09
who is saying to US officials who have their jaws dropped to the floor where he's saying to them, I want to leave
39:14
Syria. the way I left Afghanistan. And they're telling him, "Mr. President, please, we want to stay in Syria." And
39:19
Trump is saying, "Give me a good reason why I should stay in Syria." And Israel and the US officials are struggling to
39:25
convince Trump to do so. When Israel is saying, okay, let's suppose Trump wants to leave, but let's split it into four.
39:31
Trump is turning around in my opinion, and he's saying to them, if you split it into four, you cause civil war, and
39:37
we're going to have to come back in anyway. So, I don't want it to be split into four. I respect and Marco Rubio
39:42
came out during the SUA issue and said we stand with the territorial integrity with Syria. I think that's a Trump
39:47
position which is I just want a guy who can keep the peace. I just want a guy who won't give me a reason to intervene.
39:54
I want a guy who promises to fight ISIS at his own expense. I want a guy who promises to ensure there's no threat to
39:59
American interests. I want a guy who can make sure I don't need to focus on the Middle East so I can focus on China, on
40:04
tariffs and these other issues as well. And Ahmed is saying I'm that guy. and the Israelis are failing to convince Trump that Ahmed is not that guy.
Turkey’s position
40:12
Uh Turkey's position in this entire crisis and and actually its position with regards to the so-called Rajava
40:18
state that the Israelis may want to create, the SDF uh Kurdish faction in in
40:23
the northeast. Um prospects for um uh some sort of reconciliation. I know
40:29
there have been talks ongoing between the central government and uh uh the Kurds in the northeast. just explain
40:36
sort of the Turkish dimension here. In 2013, uh, Rajab Erdogan announced a
40:44
unilateral peace process with the PKK. When I say unilateral, he invited them
40:50
to the peace talk. He announced it and said, "Guys, I want to talk." And the reason being is that in 2013,
40:57
Turkeykey's economy was flying. The Arab Spring had just taken place. There was a
41:03
sense that Erdugen is now power. 2008 he done the constitutional changes that allowed that restored the right of hijab
41:08
at state institutions. In 2008, he amended the constitution to recognize
41:14
the Kurdish language and allow it to be manifested and Kurdish culture to be manifested as well after the Ataturk
41:20
legacy had tried to crush it and suppress it and atte
41:34
party not because Erdogan was a Turk but because Erdogan was Muslim and Erdogan capitalized on that capital in 2013 to
41:41
say I want to start a peace process. There's no reason left for the PKK to stand. I have brought a reconciliation
41:47
between the Kurds and I. And the PKK realizing they were rapidly losing Kurdish support. I was in Van. I was in
41:53
Dbakar. I was in Bengal. I was in these other cities as well that are Kurdish cities. I went to these places in 2008
42:00
and I went to them again in 2011 and 2012. The overwhelming sentiment was that Erdogan is different from those who
42:06
came before him. Why Erdogan Muslim? And therefore they found the space within
42:12
the vision that Erdogan was creating for them. And the PKK were even resorting to
42:17
kidnapping members of Kurdish families to try to strike fear in the hearts of the Kurdish communities to tell them
42:23
stop gravitating towards Erdogan. When the PKK realized they were losing the Kurdish communities in eastern Turkey,
42:30
they decided they really had no choice. And given that Syria there was an you know Syria they saw no hope for
42:36
establishing independent state in Syria they engaged with the process. When they got to the clause of disarming
42:43
completely Syria began to cascade into a civil war. The PKK when they saw what
42:50
was happening in Syria they said wait a minute maybe what happens in Syria is going to
42:56
create an opportunity for us to make a new bid to establish an autonomous region in Syria. and from there we can
43:02
use it as a launch pad. Erdogan realized what the PKK were doing and began to get frustrated. So the PKK started to stall
43:08
in the negotiations because of the renewed hope that maybe they can establish an independent state. Erdogan
43:14
then resorted to bombing PKK areas eventually alienating much of the population in in amongst the Kurds who
43:21
would later gravitate towards the HDP when they felt or the head on the basis they thought that Erdogan had betrayed
43:27
their trust and the head became a force to be reckoned with later on. In any case,
43:33
Erdogan is trying to revive the situation today because he believes now as a result what happened in Syria and
43:39
with Trump withdrawing from Syria, the PKK have no breathing space like they're
43:44
starting to run out of breathing space. Ojelan recognizes this, the head of the PKK. So, Ojelan says in order to
43:50
preserve ourselves and what we have, if the Americans leave, we'll get slaughtered. If the Americans leave, we
43:56
the separatist Kurds are done for. Like, it will be at Erdugan's mercy. So let's quickly start a peace process with
44:02
Erdogan in order to preserve what we have. Erdogan is willing because Erdogan wants that as part of the jewel of his crowd
44:09
that I brought peace between the Kurdish populations and the Turkish populations and I did it because I am Erdogan.
44:18
The concern for Turkey at the moment is that the separatist Kurds are carefully
44:26
observing what's happening in Sue. If Sue becomes autonomous, then the
44:32
separatist Kurds are likely to ask the Israelis to help them secure something similar in
44:38
northeast Turkey. The concern for Turkey is that before
44:45
Sue there was a rush to come to an agreement between the the separatists rushed to agree with Damascus on a
44:52
broader framework of reintegration. But if the Americans indicate that they're willing to do a suedesque
45:00
support in northeastern Syria, then the PKK no longer have an
45:05
incentive to put down their arms and continue this negotiation with Erdogan. The peace talks completely collapse. Not
45:11
only will they collapse, but that autonomous region established in Syria will be an American defended autonomous
45:17
region and Israeli defended. Meaning the PKK will have a branch that is protected internationally to then continue to
45:23
harass Turkey in the way that they've been doing over the past years. And that's why Sue is so dangerous for the
45:28
Turks. The Turks believe they can wrap up the Kurdish issue and establish themselves in Syria as it stands. But
45:34
that the Israeli Sue operation could ruin that for them entirely. And that's why I think Erdogan is on the phone with
45:39
Marco Rubio on Fidad is on the phone with Marco Rubio. Erdogan is on the phone with Donald Trump to say to him
45:45
Ahmed Shara is your guy. Don't let the Israelis have their way in so that we can look after security in Syria. And it
45:50
remains to be seen who will win in this debate with Donald Trump. At the moment, it appears Erdogan has more sway. We
45:56
remember Netanyahu went to the White House to ask for help against Turkey in Syria. And Donald Trump said, "Listen, if you go up against Erdogan, Erdogan's
46:03
my friend. I can't guarantee that I'm going to help you." Israel is trying to lobby the Americans against the Turkish interests, but it feels like Trump is
46:10
closer to Erdogan in his thinking on Syria than he is towards the Israelis. How committed is Turkey to Syria?
46:15
Erdogan, I think in my opinion, dreams of
46:22
a sultanesque state. And what's interesting is that often
46:28
you'll find even amongst Turkish nationalists, there is a view that large parts of Syria in their opinion belongs
46:34
to Turkey. Large parts of Iraq belong to Turkey.
46:40
There was an agreement signed between Turkey and Syria that used to allow the Turkish regime to without asking
46:46
permission from Damascus to march in within 30 40 km and it was a sign of the
46:51
Turks saying that this is our territory anyway so we're allowed to march in as we wish. Erdogan believes that
46:58
historically the road to power goes through Syria then goes through Egypt and that's the historical Ottoman areas.
47:06
I'm not falling into the trope of neotoman but Erdogan when you look at his rhetoric when you look at what he
47:11
did with Sophia when you look at the mass that he built the shows that he commissioned als you know the fati
47:18
sultan memed shows and these others it's clear that in Erdugan's sociohistorical memory his vision for what Turkey looks
47:26
like is a Muslim Turkey that restores its influence over those areas that it
47:31
used to rule in the Muslim world itself and that's why I think Erdogan is invested in Turkey and very keen to be
47:38
the pioneer of rebuilding Syria in the shape of what it looked like when the
47:44
Ottomans were there. And I don't think Syrians are necessarily averse to it. Primarily because one of the reasons
47:51
that Erdogan took in the Syrians in Turkey was primarily to normalize the idea of an identity that is greater than
47:58
the Turkish identity. You remember Erdogan used to say that the Syrians are not refugees. They are guests here.
48:03
Albeit later on when he suffered politically and economically he would later alter his rhetoric to more nationalists. But the indication during
48:10
good times where he would refer to them as guests indicated that Erdogan the way
48:15
he sees his golden age is an age in which the Turkish identity goes beyond just the ethnic Turks. That's Erdogan's
48:22
vision. And I think that when it comes to Syria, he sees Syria as part of the Turkish or or Ottomanesque
48:29
sphere of influence, which is what allows him to connect very well with the Muslim parties that are in Syria today.
48:37
how he navigates that with the Saudi Crown, Prince Muhammad bin Salman in the UAE who are averse to the Muslim
48:43
identity in Syria to the extent that Saudis would elevate minority Christian
48:49
groups as leaders of the opposition in order to prevent any Sunni leader of the
48:56
opposition despite them being Sunni states. You'll remember that Saudi had no problem with Bashar in
49:02
power, but they did have a problem with with Alawi Bashar in power. They had no problem with that. They even were happy
49:09
to reconcile with that. U had no problem with Alawi Bashar in power with Shia Bashar in power. But they did have a
49:16
problem with the prospect of a Sunniwan in power. They didn't have a problem with Alawi Bashar in power. But they did
49:23
have a problem with the prospect of a Sunni Ahmed in power. The irony is that
49:29
the Saudi and the UAE are actually more comfortable with a Shia in power in
49:34
Damascus or with a Christian in power in Damascus or with a Drews in power in Damascus than they are with somebody
49:41
from the Sunni majority in Syria itself. That's the irony of what's taking place in Syria itself. Erdogan wants that Sunni majoritarianism
49:48
in Damascus. And I'm not speaking about in the sense that one sect is better than the other. I'm not saying in that regard. I'm saying that there is a
49:54
concerted effort by those who want to separate Syria to split Syria to ensure that the majorities are not represented
50:00
in government but that the majority is crippled by the minorities instead of allowing the majority to create an
50:06
environment where minorities can thrive as well. That's where I think it's interesting to see where Turkey will
50:11
navigate those sensitivities from the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Yeah. So, let's talk about the UAE position. I mean the UAE is of course
UAE’s position
50:18
one of the closest states to Israel in in the Middle East and the UAE has played uh a horrid role in in the Middle
50:24
East over the last 10 years. I mean uh explain the UAE position towards Syria
50:29
and the current crisis. The UAE is torn between celebrating
50:36
Iran's loss in Syria and between the prospect of the Arab
50:43
populations seeing Ahmed Ashara as a model to be replicated in their own countries.
50:51
The UAE is uncertain which is worse. Iran in power in Syria or Ahmed Shara
51:00
who might inspire movements that will topple Cece in Egypt, King Abdullah in Jordan, bin Salman in Saudi Arabia and
51:06
sort of that fear of a renewed Arab Spring that might take place in the region itself. As a result of this
51:13
uncertainty, the UAE is entertaining the prospect of what Ahmed has to propose
51:20
while mulling over which direction they should go in terms of who they should support in Syria. So, it's unclear if the UAE is on
51:27
Hikmiji's side in or if they're on the side of Ahmed Shar.
51:32
It's unclear if they support the Israeli plan to split Syria or if they're aligning with Trump to keep Syria united
51:37
under Ahmed Shar. I think the UAE is in a phase of let's see what happens first. UAE does not buy Ahmed's argument in any
51:45
way whatsoever that he will somehow be some sort of ally for the UAE. But the UAE is encouraged that Abdman alawi was
51:55
delivered to the UAE so he could be put in the UAE prisons and disappeared. Explain that. Who delivered him?
52:01
Ahmed Abdman alawi is the son of the late Yusf Kardawi.
52:07
when Syria was liberated from Bashid Abdawi went to the um masjid the um
52:15
masjid and he he's a he's he's known as a poet and sometimes like very explicit
52:22
poetry particularly on Muslim dictators. So when he went to the masid he recorded
52:28
a video where he recited some poetry and he also said Syria is free and I know those in Saudi Arabia and UAE are not
52:35
happy about this freedom. Nothing happened to him in Syria, but when he crossed the border into Lebanon, he was immediately kidnapped.
52:41
He's a Turkish and Egyptian citizen. So under international law, if he's arrested and deported, he should be
52:47
deported to either Egypt or either Turkey. Lebanon, the government there decided to
52:54
deport him to the UAE at the request of the UAE requested Lebanon to deport him to them so that they could punish him
53:01
for the stuff that he said about the UAE. And the Lebanese government complied. They deported him to the UAE. The Syrian government did not issue any
53:08
statement or protest about Abdman Kavi. It was sort of an indication to the UAE.
53:13
We don't want to provoke the UAE here. The Turks didn't issue any statement about him either, despite the fact he's
53:19
a Turkish citizen. The Turks would later say, listen, we said that the Turkish citizenship does not protect you from
53:25
the UAE because we need their $50 billion trade deal. We need their money. So just so you're aware, if you go to an
53:30
Arab state, we can't protect you there because we don't want to jeopardize our relations for them and you're not worth jeopardizing relation even if you have a
53:37
Turkish citizenship. And that was from Turkey to say to the UAE, we don't want to offend the UAE either. So the UAE is encouraged by
53:48
Syria's refusal or or omission of taking these
53:56
sorts of positions. When one of Ahmed's close allies during the fight against Bashad did a video saying CeCe is next,
54:04
Ahmed put him under house arrest. Okay, house arrest between quotation marks. They say he's being put in a nice
54:09
area and that rather it was to say to Cece that look we won't allow anybody to conspire against you over here and they
54:15
put him in a nice place to say hhabib look like we need these guys we need UAE we need like Saudi Arabia now is not
54:22
that time to make the statement and I think he responded to and said I get it I got you I understand like I I won't
54:28
make a statement like that again I understand the situation that you're in we'll think about it for a later time the UAE is encouraged by that but it's
54:35
unclear if they really want to strong or rather they want to do a wait and see. And the reason I say is because
54:40
this is the point I finish on. The promise of money has not materialized into actual money.
54:47
So he's visiting them and they're promising to support him, but Saudi has yet to send those oil ships that it has
54:53
promised. Aside from paying, you know, by their standards a poultry 15 million to pay off the debt. Saudi hasn't really
55:00
invested in in Syria yet. Despite the lifting of sanctions, there's not a rush of money suddenly into Syria from the
55:06
Gulf States either. So I think the UAE is on a wait and see approach. Um earlier on we had this conversation
Syrians onboard?
55:11
about um Ahmed Ashara and his uh requirement or his sort of strategy of
55:16
creating a space for himself because his country is in a very impoverished and tattered situation because the Syrians
55:23
and the Syrians and like Syrians are also asking for this are they on board? That's the question. I mean because of course earlier on uh
55:31
previous episodes we've talked about the Tunisia situation. We've talked about Egypt and in all of these situations we
55:38
found that uh Muslim governments came into into power uh but they lost their
55:44
people uh and as a result of losing their people they did not have that buffer between themselves and the wrath
55:50
of these Gulf states and and the Americans and whoever were trying the Israelis and others who were trying to
55:56
remove them. Uh are you do you feel that Ahmed Ashara and the concessions and I put that in inverted commas that he has
56:03
made uh do you think that Ahmed Ashara has got and continues to have support
56:09
from Syrians? I don't think that Ahmed can be compared to Muli or Ganushi in Egypt and Tunisia
56:15
respectively. Right. I think Ahmed Shar is closer to the Taliban in the in terms of how he came
56:21
to power than those Muli and Ganushi. They came via elections but the power
56:28
was never truly in their hands. Tunisia maybe in the first couple of years and the like in which it was squandered but
56:34
Muri was always having to negotiate with an army and with a deep state. Ahmed has no deep state he needs to negotiate
56:40
with. He took over the country militarily. He took it by military effort. The deep state is entirely
56:45
collapsed. Ahmed Shara and his army are literally the state. The entire army has been reformed. All of the factions that
56:51
fought have formed a new army. Ahmed Shar doesn't have the challenges that Egypt and Tunisia have. Ahmed is closer
56:58
to the Taliban who also took over Kabul militarily and their army became the
57:04
army. So Ahmed has an advantage that the other two did not have because it also
57:09
means and he also came on what Syrians believe to be the road to liberation in the Harris spring. It was more the
57:15
people did the revolution and now we're going to vote for a party that wasn't entirely you know part of the revolution
57:21
but we're going to trust you with it. Ahmed was the road of liberation for the Syrians. He's seen as synonymous with it
57:28
in the way that he was in Idlib and these other groups and he came in. So the legitimate the military legitimacy
57:33
that Ahmed has is a very unique legitimacy that allows him to establish
57:38
a council and enjoy the patience of the Syrians in a way that the Egyptians and the Tunisians did not enjoy. What I mean
57:44
here to put it very simply is in Tunisia the Tunisians said to Ranushi to Rashani, "May Allah inshallah release
57:51
him from prison. He's being unjustly imprisoned by by the dictator. Yeah. The Tunisians said to Ranushi, "We did
57:58
this revolution and brought you home. Now deliver." The Egyptians said to Mi,
58:04
"We did this. We the ones who did it. Now go and deliver." In Syria, Ahmed
58:13
brought the you know with alongside the Syrian people like he he is he's not the
58:18
one being tasked with it. M he marched and he took it and he delivered with it. And that sort of
58:23
legitimacy is is is a huge advantage for Ahmed, which is why I I don't tend to
58:30
compare him to Tunisia and Egypt because I think it's a false comparison. I compare him to the Taliban who are
58:35
looking for international recognition, who are looking for finances, who are looking for economic development, but
58:40
who have established a new political system in the way Ahmed is now establishing based on their own terms.
58:46
And that allows them to get away with the economic deterioration that we're
58:53
seeing because people recognize they're in rebuilding phase. For the last two years, we've been
58:58
talking about Gaza and the horrible situation in Gaza and um this conversation about Syria. uh you know,
Muslim governments
59:05
of course, you know, some people superficially uh put high expectations on this new Syria and say this new Syria
59:13
should be marching into into you know, Tel Aviv or should be marching into Gaza or or the like. And we know that that
59:20
just practically cannot happen and that's an impossible task for this
59:26
state. But I'm I'm minded to to note that uh you have criticized all Muslim
59:32
governments around the world for not acting in uh enough in Gaza whether
59:37
that's diplomatically or economically. So states as far a field as Malaysia where we are at the moment or Pakistan
59:43
or you know these states and and governments that could have done more as well as the Gulf states. I mean from my
59:50
conversation with you today there's a recognition that there are two types of states really. There are those those
59:56
states who do have ability. They do have some level of political autonomy. They
1:00:02
do have some uh economic cushion to be able to challenge the status quo. And
1:00:09
then you've got poorer states or you've got fringe states. Uh you've got Pakistan for example, you know, and can
1:00:16
you really compare um what Saudi Arabia can do? Saudi Arabia can put a stop to this genocide
1:00:23
but refuses to do so. And Pakistan, yes, it's a nuclear state, but economically
1:00:29
impoverished, you know, doesn't really have that level of ability, is not in close proximity to the region. Like, is
1:00:36
it fair, in other words, to blame all of the Muslim rulers for the failure of Gaza, or should we cut some slack for
1:00:43
some of these rulers and actually go after the UAE and the Saudis and the Turks quite frankly for not doing
1:00:49
enough? The simple answer is I disagree with the assessment. You use Pakistan for
1:00:55
example. Pakistan's problem is not that it is economically impoverished. Pakistan's example Pakistan's
1:01:02
problem is that it is colonized by a military elite that preferred to see an impoverished
1:01:10
Pakistan to a free and prosperous Pakistan. Yeah. Putting Imran Khan in prison just
1:01:15
because he might win an election demonstrates that the military elite would rather see Pakistan burn than
1:01:22
allow the Pakistani people to choose who their leader should be. So Pakistan's issue is not that it lacks
1:01:29
power. It has power as a nuclear power. Yeah, it has power diplomatically, but that
1:01:34
power is leveraged against the Pakistani people, not for the Pakistani people.
1:01:40
Likewise in Saudi Arabia, the power that can be deployed in order to end the genocide in Gaza, that power is deployed
1:01:46
against the Saudi people. It's not deployed for the Saudi people, nor even for Palestine and for Gaza.
1:01:52
The Syria example is not that I'm making excuses for Ahmed Shar is that it's the reality of the situation because the
1:01:59
manifestation of using power against the people results in the collapse of a state like
1:02:06
Syria. Syria. It's not that I'm giving it a pass. Syria is what will happen if
1:02:13
the Muslim nations continue to prioritize the national interest over the ummah's interest. Syria is what will
1:02:21
happen to these other states, the fragmentation, the people rising up for justice, the subsequent foreign
1:02:27
intervention, and the collapse. I'm not giving Assyria a free pass. I'm saying it doesn't exist. I'm saying it doesn't
1:02:34
exist even in the equation for us to determine whether it can even have any power or role to play whatsoever. The
1:02:41
Israeli planes flew over Syria because the state does not exist. And the reason
1:02:46
it does not exist is because there was a regime called the Assad regime backed by
1:02:52
the Iranians and the Russians that deployed the power that they could have used for Falstine. They deployed that
1:02:58
power instead against the Syrian people and they sparked such devastation and
1:03:03
destruction that Syria is now out of the equation. When we criticize the Muslim
1:03:09
rulers, the reason why you criticize the Muslim rulers is because and and I give this example. If we're talking
1:03:14
mathematics X equals Y, are the Americans doing anything strange in
1:03:20
their support for the Israelis that we haven't seen before? No. Are they doing
1:03:25
anything different from what you expected in this genocide in Gaza in the way they're supporting the Israelis?
1:03:30
Nothing. Americans have been imperial power. They've been so since they became a superpower. Yeah. Are the Europeans doing anything
1:03:36
differently? Absolutely not. So the X side of the equation is the same as it has always
1:03:42
been since Israel was established and before. So what is broken in the equation that allowed an unprecedented
1:03:49
genocide to take place with Palestine? We've had genocides things but not on this scale. What is broken in the
1:03:54
equation? It's the Y side. Who was the Y side? The Y side is the Muslim rulers. In 73, the Y side was balanced. The oil
1:04:01
the the the oil embargo. 2001, you had the crown prince Abdullahbin Abdaziz when he threatened when he withdrew the
1:04:07
ambassador from Washington. Recalled him. And when he threatened to cut ties with Bush, the balance was there. The Y
1:04:13
side is broken. It's not broken because Muslim leaders lost power. It's broken because the
1:04:20
Muslim leaders don't want the Y. They made it one over why. Why one over why? They've made it flipped because today
1:04:26
it's not that Muslim leaders are neutral. They're complicit. The Saudi crown prince agrees with
1:04:32
Israel's aims to eliminate Hamas. UAE agrees with Israel's aims to
1:04:38
eliminate Hamas. Their only contention is do it in a cleaner way. Erdugan
1:04:43
believes that Syria is a priority and I don't want to harm my relations with the Israelis and therefore I my people think
1:04:50
they want to stand for Gaza but I'm going to make sure no flotilla leaves Istanbul. I don't want to offend them. I've got economic crisis. Send Ben to
1:04:59
Malaysia Ibrahim says I'm caught between America and China. So I need to appease
1:05:05
the people I talk about Gaza. I believe Anor cares about Gaza. But if I'm going to make a statement about Gaza, I need
1:05:11
to buy Boeing jets as well. If I'm going to lambast the Americans about Gaza, I
1:05:16
need to smile with Anthony Blinkin and I need to promise to buy semiconductors as well cuz I want American investments
1:05:22
here. If I'm going to go to the Bokeata summit in which I'm going to announce measures against the Israelis, I need to offer
1:05:28
Black Rockck also, you know, the the the airport and the management of the airport because I want to show the
1:05:33
Americans that there are limits to what I'm willing to do with regards to Palestine and beyond.
1:05:40
Muslim countries collectively have the ability to make a difference. But the Muslim governments have aimed their
1:05:47
resources against their own people. Turkey, not so much, but certainly the other Muslim states, including the
1:05:53
Kataris, they've aimed their resources against their own people. And that's why I argue that the reason the Muslim
1:06:00
leaders need to be criticized is because many of them are the front line of defense of Zionism. When that Sumud
1:06:06
convoy left Algeria and Tunisia, it wasn't stopped on the border with Israel or so-called Israel. I don't recognize
1:06:12
it as a state. It wasn't stopped in Rafa. It was stopped in Sir in Libya. It
1:06:17
was stopped in Cairo in Egypt. The land bridge that goes from the UAE all the
1:06:22
way to Israel goes through Jordan. It goes through Saudi Arabia when it flies to Dubai where the flights
1:06:29
still continue. Anyone can open flight radar and see it. It flies through Saudi airspace. Saudis have not stopped the
1:06:34
flights going through Saudi airspace. Saudis and the Qataris and the UEIE have not withdrawn the billions of dollars
1:06:40
that they gave to Jared Kushner who said openly, I'm investing this stuff in the Israelis like none of that has changed.
1:06:46
These are the first line of defense for the Zionist regimes. First line of defense against Sue against the people.
1:06:53
And that's why I argue that when you're given categories or tiers, Pakistan or Saudi Arabia or these things, can you
1:06:59
imagine if Pakistan the military elite lifted their choke hole that they have on the Pakistani people, allowed free
1:07:06
elections, allowed the Pakistanis to choose, allowed them to dream of a free Pakistan. And because it became free,
1:07:12
those Pakistanis in America, the ones who make millions of dollars and who are experts in tech, decide to go back
1:07:18
because it's free, because they're now allowed to innovate. And so the production of the latest tech happens in
1:07:23
Pakistan. The latest military hardware is produced in Pakistan. That talent that's being used in MIT, that's being
1:07:30
used in Boeing, that's being used in Loheed Martin, they leave because they want to serve Pakistan, because they know it's free, because they know that
1:07:36
there is justice there. They go and rebuild. Pakistan won't just be a nuclear power. It will be a military
1:07:41
power. And that's why says oppression destroys civilization.
1:07:48
Oppression drives talent to leave the country. Oppression reduces market size.
1:07:54
Oppression makes less taxes less revenue. Oppression destroys it. And the reason the military elite in Pakistan
1:08:00
don't feel it is because they live comfortably while the rest of the people are poor. It's a Marie Antoanet syndrome
1:08:07
where the French revolution emerged. But Maria Antoanet could not understand why the French were revoling against them
1:08:13
because they lived in lovely compounds while the Pakistan or the French lived in miserable conditions. Pakistan needs
1:08:19
to be liberated. The Muslim world needs to be liberated not from Zionism first
1:08:25
but from the allies of Zionism who believe that it is better to bring Israel to bomb Damascus than it is to
1:08:31
allow Ahmed to assert himself in Sue who believe that it's better to bring the
1:08:38
mercenaries into our countries and our lands to fight against our own people
1:08:43
instead of relying on our people to protect them against the Americans who believe it's better to bring NATO to
1:08:49
bomb Libya than it is to go and get the Libyans to support them against Gaddafi instead who believe it's better to bring
1:08:55
NATO against Iraq than it is to find some sort of accord with Iraq and with the accorded people who believe it's
1:09:01
better to set up an alade base to point at Saudi Arabia than it is to find an accord with Saudi Arabia who believe
1:09:08
it's better to bring military bases in Saudi to point towards Qatar and Iran than it is to find an accord with Iran
1:09:14
who believe that it's better to bring the foreign power and the Zionists against my brother because I would
1:09:19
rather ally with the genocide or rabid army than I would with my own brother. That's the disaster with the Muslim
1:09:24
world. It's not I I want the equation to be fixed. I want the X and the Y to be balanced because the X is the same as
1:09:31
it's always been. It's the Y that is broken. And if Bin Salman picks up the phone and calls Erdog and calls the rest
1:09:37
of the Muslim leaders and tells them we're all withdrawing our ambassadors from Washington because we're making a stance on Gaza and we're putting on hold
1:09:44
the $3.4 trillion that we're giving to the Americans. We're going to give it to South Africa instead because they took the case to the ICJ. I think Trump will
1:09:50
come running and say to the Saudis, listen, it doesn't need to be this way. Netanyahu, do a ceasefire now. But he chooses not to do so. Why? Not because
1:09:57
they are scared, but because they are complicit. They don't mind the Palestinians getting slaughtered.
1:10:03
Because they are benefiting from those who are supporting the genocide. And bin Salman and bin Z want to see the
1:10:09
Palestinians destroyed, want to see the Palestinian block eradicated. Because in their view, the future of the ummah
1:10:15
doesn't look like the ummah of the past. It looks like Miami. It looks like Jennifer Lopez. It looks like Nicki
1:10:21
Minaj. It looks like casinos. It look like some breweries. It looks like introduction of alcohol again. It looks
1:10:27
like bikini beaches. It looks like parties in That's what the future looks like. And Palestine does not fit in that
1:10:33
future. Thank you so much for your time today.
1:10:40
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