Ep 273. - Is Saudi-Israeli normalisation over? | Dr. Abdullah Salman Alaoudh

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Today on The Thinking Muslim, we are joined by Abdullah Aloudh, son of Shaykh Salman Aloudh, who is currently on death row. Abdullah joins us to discuss the new Saudi Arabia, what has changed, what has not, and how authoritarianism continues to expand beneath the surface of reform. You can find Abdullah Aloudh here: X: https://x.com/aalodah

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Transcript - This is an automated transcript and may not reflect the actual conversation

Introduction

0:00

Of course, your father is a well-known  dissident. I believe he's still on death   row in Saudi Arabia. NBS now is a pressure  cooker. He once said to my father, he said,  

0:09

"Politics are ruled by fear, not love. Do you  worry about your own safety by alienating a lot  

0:15

of segments within the Saudi society? He's pushing  a lot of people to be dissident." This week we  

0:22

have Abdullah Ala son of the famous Imam and sheh  Shehikh Salman aloud who talks to us about the new  

0:28

Saudi Arabia and its growing authoritarianism.  The Saudi Arabia still use the Pegasus software  

0:35

the Israelis have supplied them. Governments  and dictators say shock therapy to society in  

0:41

order to to bring it to enlightenment. They are  betting on power alone not betting on the people.  

0:50

I'm here with Abdullah Oda, a Saudi dissident here  in Washington DC. Abdullahumah and welcome back to  

0:57

the thinking Muslim. Thank you so much for having  me. I'm really happy to uh be in person today. I'm  

1:06

really I think I'm very fortunate to to be here  with you in person here in Washington. Um the  

1:12

last conversation we had, I mean, who would have  known? uh we received almost half a million views  

1:18

and subhan Allah it seemed like it gained a lot  of traction amongst not just Saudis but actually  

1:23

Muslims around the world. Um and did you believe  at the time that uh you know a a conversation  

Impact of previous video

1:30

about in effect Saudi politics uh would have had  such a reaction from from all from all around the  

1:38

world. Uh well I I know there was a hunger to  um understanding the the Arab Peninsula and the  

1:46

people of the Arabian Peninsula. Yeah. Uh but uh  no I did not uh think did not know that this uh  

1:55

would be that level of interest of the people. But  that's to be honest a very good sign that people  

2:01

are really really um uh happy and and and uh  hungry to understanding the situation and follow  

2:12

the situation. That's part of what we always talk  about which is the um and uh the Muslim countries  

2:19

around the world and you know how we all are uh  we all are uh well connected. I use the word of  

Saudi Dissident

2:27

the term Saudi dissident in in uh introducing  you and of course you are a son of probably one  

2:33

of the most famous scholars who now is in prison  in in Saudi Arabia. Um do you bristle at the term  

2:41

Saudi dissident or do you embrace it? I embrace  it. Uh I find it uh okay um for many reasons but  

2:49

I'll be brief. Uh one is that um I I think the  problem with the uh Muslim dictatorships with  

3:01

with uh authoritarian regimes in the Arab world  uh is that they want to um antagonize against  

3:09

the idea of having an opposition. antagonize and  and uh basically criminalize the idea of having a  

3:18

different thought, different opinion uh which is  against what um Islamic even history uh against  

3:26

Islamic principles as they see it uh and against  the basic morals and understandings of human  

3:33

rights. In our last show, in our last discussion,  we uh you commented on Saudi foreign policy and in  

Saudi and Palestine

3:40

particular uh its its perspective on Palestine.  The Saudis still see the Palestinian issue to  

3:47

be at best a bit of a nuisance and and they don't  quite uh uh hold that level of solidarity towards  

3:55

the Palestinians that the people of Saudi Arabia  do and and certainly the people of the Muslim   Ummah do. Uh but we have seen a stronger tone  against Israel. We have seen the Doha attacks.  

4:07

You know, the Saudis were very quick in responding  and condemning uh those attacks. We've seen um  

4:14

uh uh announcements about various actions  in Gaza uh from the Saudis that have used  

4:22

quite harsh language against Israel. Do you think  that that this amounts to anything a shift in in  

4:28

in perspective in any way or is it still within  that sort of slightly cynical um you know Saudi  

4:36

trying to play to public opinion but actually not  much more than that? Yeah, that's what I think  

4:42

the latter uh and why because of uh things that  preceded that. Yeah. which is one uh for example  

4:52

um the uh like Byam Netanyahu once said um there  like Palestinians should go somewhere else and he  

5:04

mentioned three places including Saudi Arabia. Uh  and after that moment, Saudi Arabia issued uh like  

5:13

like a really harsh statement um and and fierce  language uh as it should be. Um uh but this tells  

5:23

you that only when they mentioned places in Saudi  Arabia because they still think about the the  

5:31

uh ultranationalistic idea and understanding and  trying to separate this ois trying to and I think  

5:41

uh failing miserably to uh separate the Sudis  from understanding the issues beyond their borders  

5:49

beyond their borders including the Palestinian  issue and um uh and when they got the message from  

5:59

the Israelis that they're no longer uh interested  in normalization. And thirdly, I think the the the  

6:09

calculations um in the Israeli mind that um you  know again if they have to choose between the  

6:19

deterrence doctrine uh uh presenting strength.  Yeah, they think long term that can help them  

6:28

bring these small countries around to have them as  protectorate this time uh not by the only the US  

6:38

but also by Israel. That's what some people in the  security you know um would say sector in Israel  

6:48

think that um presenting the strength of Israel  uh can help even long-term normalization while if  

6:57

you present if you pursue this normalization  despite everything uh the message that these  

7:03

countries will get is that um oh yeah we have do  you have to do more concessions and all that and  

7:08

are not ready to do anything and they're not  willing to do any of that. So that's part of   the calculations that the Saudi like they get the  message and everything and how the Israelis even  

7:17

treated them. Uh so why would they pursue that? So  the language is like of some it's it's a language  

7:25

of somebody who basically was left to either do  that and at least pretend to care or you know  

7:38

uh still left out by everybody including your own  people who care about Gaza. I think so. What NBS  

7:45

chose, which is good at least, um is to use a  language that uh kind of respond to the moment.  

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MBS and New Syria

9:06

NBS has also been engaged in uh in actively  in regional diplomacy and and this actually  

9:13

also includes um diplomacy with uh organizations  that traditionally u Saudi Arabia would not have  

9:20

engaged with Islamist you know groups and and I'm  particularly talking about um how NBS has really  

9:27

worked with uh to bring Ahmed al- Shara out from  the code and to to create a normalization of the  

9:34

Syria in the minds of the west. Of course,  there was that famous meeting in between   our conversations between Trump where Trump said,  you know, he he respected Shah as the strong man  

9:45

uh and admired him. And of course, just  yesterday, we're in Washington, but in New York,  

9:51

uh Ahmed Shara is is at the United Nations. He  gave a talk today and yesterday you know he was  

9:57

at a a very important forum with General Proteus  Proraeus as as the uh as the uh uh the presenter  

10:04

as the as the the host. So there seems to be and  and a lot of that I think happened as a result of  

10:10

uh the the diplomacy of NBS like what's going on  there? Why is NBS who was a very strong proponent  

10:17

of Assad at one point and and bringing Assad into  into out of the cold and and and back into into  

10:26

uh the public and and international sort of  limelight? Why is uh why is he so uh uh intent  

10:35

on on salvaging the reputation of the new Syria?  Well, let's dissect that into understanding Saudi  

10:43

Arabia's relationship to Assad in the last year  uh you know before assets fall and then now and  

10:54

if you listen if you if you if you um follow the  you know events at that time Saudi Arabia actually  

11:02

just less than a year before uh the fall of the  Assad regime uh not just lobbyed and pushed and  

11:11

forced uh Assad into the Arab summit. He was  welcomed uh embraced in the arm of NBS. There  

11:23

was a famous actually uh picture portray it uh of  the two standing in Riyad for the first time after  

11:30

years and years of isolation. um uh basically  normalizing Assad's regime and dictatorship. Um  

11:40

and uh it was a moment that Saudi Arabia wanted  to even uh go beyond that uh if it were not for  

11:47

the rebels who captured um Damascus. Uh so but  at the same time we have to be fair. Yes. S if  

11:58

it were up to Sabbia, they wanted uh less of Assad  because they wanted um basically to break that I  

12:09

would say the what they called the resistance  um crescent uh in the Arab world like Iran,  

12:17

Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and part of that. So they  wanted to uh break it up and um they saw Syria  

12:27

as as a central I would say uh piece into this  puzzle uh and wanted to and they have always  

12:35

wanted to uh do that. And when this happened, they  embraced it because despite all the differences  

12:42

uh and and all the reservations, this for them is  a moment where they can and and bet to u embrace  

12:55

and push for him. Uh in the in the understanding  in the I would say hope that uh this will mean uh  

13:07

co-opting um Ashar's leadership and bringing  it you know in the arms of Saudi Arabia and  

13:15

became like so be become more influential  in Syria's uh foreign policy. I think  

13:22

that's that's basically the calculations and um  that's part of it and I don't think they also

13:33

didn't know or ignore the fact that he became  from an Islamist background. Yeah. But what they  

13:41

are betting is that he will u act as a politician  more than an Islamist. And uh you know he will be  

13:52

more of a pro pragma pragmatist uh like MBS  MBS himself came from uh what once Kashuki  

13:59

called the mother of the all Muslim like Islam  Islamist movements Wahhabism at one time u and  

14:07

he is now MBS. So that's what they are hoping  to push for and present the thinking Muslim.

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15:09

Now looking at um the domestic scene in in  Saudi Arabia, of course your father is a is  

15:15

a is a well-known dissident and he is currently  in prison. We have seen reports of scholars being  

Release of political prisoners

15:21

quietly released by the regime over the last few  months. Um I mean is is this a promising sign,  

15:28

a recalibration maybe in in Saudi Arabia?  How do you interpret what's happening? Well,  

15:33

it's it's good that you observe in that and you  seen the the change in that. I think there are two  

15:39

um I would say uh phenomena that I have to um  present here. one. Yes. Um I have myself and we  

15:50

have at Middle East Democracy Center uh documented  the releases of people. I've talked to people  

15:55

on the ground. We talked to lawyers. Um and from  what we gathered uh there were at least like 5,000  

16:04

um political prisoners. Uh we think that at  least a thousand of them like 1/5if have been  

16:10

released which is a yeah it's it's a good  number. I think it's it's a good progress.  

16:16

Uh and uh yes, some of them from the scholastic  uh background, some of them were like, you know,  

16:25

people who just tweeted things and silly  stuff. Uh and um uh but at the same time,  

16:32

there are 4,000 or or a bit less uh left behind,  including of course my father. Uh by the way,  

16:40

one of the people who were released uh was  actually not other my other than my uh uncle.  

16:47

Yeah. Uh that I think mentioned in our last Yes.  So he was released and Moen this time next time  

16:54

we have the interview I will talk about my father  who is u inshallah free. So that that's one one  

17:01

uh phenomenon. Uh the other one is the level  of executions. So yes, I'm trying to be fair  

17:09

talking about this progress. Uh although  we hoping for for a much bigger, you know,  

17:14

approach towards releasing people and closing the  whole file of arbitrary detention in Saudi Arabia.  

17:21

that the however the other phenomenon is is  also not less fascinating which is the level  

17:30

of executions that we witnessing in the kingdom  that is skyrocketing. Um like for example this  

17:39

year alone so far we have 240 people just until  like this year like from beginning of January  

17:48

until August. It's it's a it's a record number  in the history of the Arabian Peninsula. Uh they  

17:56

just less than two months ago or three months ago  executed Turk Jaser was a journalist like Kashukji  

18:03

this time like in court judicially instead of  extrajudicially like they did to Kashukji. Um and  

18:11

um I it's it's just mindboggling to see that they  they never given up on brutality. It's like, well,  

18:21

you're releasing people. Why? Why you That's  That's just weird with how dictators think. Uh,  

18:29

and I think it's um it just shows that shows us  that we should not always rely on the good intent  

18:37

or good will of these dictators. Should always  keep the pressure going. we should always rely  

18:43

on us, you know, keeping them on check uh until  we remove them from power, of course. Uh because  

18:51

that's for me the ultimate, you know, uh but but  the the thing is yeah, he's executing the record  

19:00

number of people including Abdullah. I mentioned  I want to mention Abdullah here because I know  

19:07

this guy personally. Um he was one of the analyst  who by the way worked in Turkey on Turkey. Uh he  

19:15

was a Saudi diplomat in Turkey. He was given the  presidential award by the Turkish leadership. Uh  

19:22

he was a facilitator between the relationship  between the two countries and followed by  

19:29

thousands of people. Um there was a time when he  actually talked about his relationship to NBS,  

19:36

how he translated things uh to the king during  NBS's present. He said that online uh and then  

19:43

he was uh detained in 2021 and executed last  year. Um because of they said high treason. It's  

19:52

just a as broad as this. No mention of details or  story or nothing. It's just like it it's obviously  

20:00

uh a madeup story like trumped up charges uh like  the charges that they you know made up for so  

20:09

many dissident uh activists and not even activists  like people that they want to you know execute in  

20:15

the kingdom. Why do you I mean you're here in in  Washington DC and you interact with policy makers   from both the left and right. Why do you think  that Saudi Arabia in a sense gets a free pass  

20:25

still when it comes to its uh domestic repression?  I mean it is the case that Saudi Arabia has still  

20:32

has a very of course a very strong relationship.  We know why that is the case but but but also  

20:38

a it's not given in the media in in the sort  of general political circles. It's not given  

20:46

uh that level of um of uh of anger of you know  of criticism that you would find with like states  

20:54

that are authoritarian states other authoritarian  states that may exist in the region like what is  

20:59

it about Saudi Arabia that still makes it gives it  that free pass. So I think the basically money and  

21:06

level of influence. I want to give you one example  like very recent example just today published a  

21:13

commentary uh on the comedians who are going to  Saudi Arabia uh beginning on Friday. Uh comedians.  

21:26

Yes. Most of them actually American comedians  including people that I always uh like and always  

21:33

uh laugh at their jokes and standup uh comedy.  Um Louis CK uh Russell Peters uh what's his  

21:45

name? Glacius Sky, you know. Uh I wouldn't know.  I don't think Americans are so funny. So I don't

21:54

I would say this is not biased uh by you of course  uh but also include people like uh include like  

22:03

people from the UK actually. Yeah. Um and it's  it's it's just um sad. One of them actually Delon

22:18

one of them like mentioned uh in a podcast uh that  he was offered 350,000 for just one you know show  

22:29

and you know just to give you a glimpse of how big  this is like an average show like this in the U in  

22:37

the US is like 35 50 uh 60 70 maximum if if it's  too good but they were given 350 uh and he said  

22:50

in the show he said I know people who were given  even like millions uh like a million or a million  

22:56

something over one show you know the the the funny  part about this I don't know if this is a joke or  

23:02

not um uh and he was not kidding about it um to  use Mandy's you know phrase uh that that he said  

23:16

he was going he took it really and he said yeah  he said uh I know it's blood money I don't care  

23:23

it's not because I he said he said not because I  I'm paraphrasing of course he said not because I  

23:29

care less but because I was offered a lot a lot of  money and I'm more honest and straightforward than  

23:35

a lot of them who pretend to care and pretend to  be principled and and then do the same thing that  

23:42

I did. Yeah. Um so what I like what we offered to  them what we asked them to do and the humor watch  

23:52

also issued a report I think yesterday or the day  before the in which they asked these comedians to  

24:00

speak up. They said okay at least if you're going  there we know it's blood money but at least speak  

24:06

up and say something um about what you care  about. So yeah, that's basically why they  

24:14

uh uh uh bend over backward to uh I don't know if  that's a phrase that you can use in this podcast.  

24:21

Yes. Uh to to to um this the Saudi leadership  and and I want to say also few things. It's  

24:30

it's one an orientalist understanding of Saudi  Arabia and the Saudi people and the Saudi and  

24:36

the Arab people and Muslim people generally. Yeah.  that they are backward and only quote unquote an  

24:43

enlightened leadership that aligns with their  understanding of what social reformer should  

24:50

look like can bring them up to the standards  of theirs. Um and uh this idea of uh benevalent  

25:01

uh autocracy that an autocrat um a dictator who  uh does what propagandist of these governments and  

25:12

dictators say a shock therapy. Yeah. Uh to society  in order to to bring it to enlightenment to the  

25:20

age of enlightenment to the modern society. Like  if the problem is the people actually and that's  

25:26

what we have been you know uh saying all along  that's what like that's why I'm big believer  

25:34

in the people and I think uh we should not play  into the hands of these dictators by just you know  

25:40

taking their narratives about our own people. Yeah  um like if it's like it's true. Tell me about the  

25:47

Saudi people because of often the impression we  get of Saudis is that they've taken this line you  

Ordinary Saudis

25:55

know of the government hookline and sinker I mean  they are involved they're going to the comedian  

26:02

shows they're going to the entertainment shows you  know in a in a in a way they've been their senses  

26:07

have been dulled by these entertainment by the  entertainment industry that has you know developed  

26:13

over the last few years. U so the impression we  get maybe incorrectly from outside we're falling   into the same orientist trope maybe we get is that  you know the Saudi people are are in line with  

26:24

uh the government and and would like to live in  an ignorant bliss I mean you've you obviously  

26:30

grew up in the country you know you tell us a  little bit about the ordinary Saudi absolutely  

26:36

so one thing it's there is a phenomena that we  used to call in Saudi Arabia um I'm trying to  

26:45

translate because it was of course said growing  up in Arabic and my Arabic is so bad that uh we  

26:53

have the people who go to concerts and wants to go  to these things and have fun. Uh the religioity of  

27:07

this scholar is above your head. Uh but also you  want to have fun. Um what once I think Ali Wardi  

27:16

said if the like a lot of Muslims were uh left to  choose between secularism and Islam uh they would  

27:28

vote for Islam and go live in a secular society or  something like that. It's it's it's the thing that  

27:35

they believe in. It's what they have faith in.  uh sometimes they have you know practices that  

27:44

can be compatible or incompatible. Um but it is I  think for me even more dangerous to force things  

27:53

into society without allowing them to choose. Um  that's one and two to basically try to manufacture  

28:05

this imposed what they called liberal uh uh you  know uh practices. I don't think they are liberal  

28:14

practices by the way but let's for the sake of  argument call them as such. Yeah. Uh like force it  

28:19

into society and impose it while at the same time  be very very repressive politically, socially and  

28:26

even religiously. Yeah. Um, this this dynamic  basically is the recipe for creating a society  

28:37

that is, by the way, still very conservative in  nature in in in theory, in understanding, but  

28:44

also feeling this paradox, feeling this dichotomy,  uh, feeling this problematic like internalized,  

28:55

um, I would say uh, uh a problem where sometimes  they let it out through uh improper means. Um  

29:10

uh basically I would say if it's I mean if  the like if you ask me I would think this the  

29:17

majority of people do not like the government.  Yeah, but if you ask me why they are they look  

29:23

like they're happy, if I were there, I would I  may go to a cinema movie, would that mean that  

29:29

I'm less of a dissident? No. But because it was,  you know, allowed. So the issue is like for for  

29:35

a lot of the these people is the calculations  that natural calculations that went into their   head is like revolting like could lead to a worse  situation. So that's one. and two, revoling would  

29:50

need the ability to revolt. And that's by the way,  that's why it's even more dangerous um because  

29:59

this repressive policy would lead to the people  uh basically waiting on this uh I would say quote  

30:10

unquote right moment. Um and then when it when it  does revolt, it may lead to different things that  

30:18

we may not even like. Uh so that's that's how  it's um it's bad and that's why even regimes  

30:25

like them before like the Bashar al-Assad or  others uh did is like a CC and like they choose  

30:36

the they choose repression every time even though  they know it probably going to lead to the worst  

30:47

when they leave because for them. They're just  protecting their era and after that it could lead  

30:55

to hell. They could not care less. A jahim. Maybe  I should have asked you this question previously,  

MBS Ideological commitment

31:01

but I want to know about has MBS moved beyond  this sort of ideological commitments he has,  

31:09

you know, towards Israel, towards America and to  a more transactional phase in in his statecraft.  

31:15

And you know are we to see that uh the kingdom is  genuinely looking to other partners maybe eastern  

31:23

partners I'm thinking more China uh here as an  example I mean one of the back to that I question  

31:29

about Pakistan one of the analysts I read about  that Pakistan defense parties of course Pakistan  

31:34

is a very good route into uh Chinese uh defense  architecture right so um what's going like do do  

31:42

you foresee that there is a a maturing at least  of of of relationships beyond the west when it  

31:49

comes to Saudi Arabia. Well, we get that question  a lot. Um and they call it the the like pivot into  

31:57

uh the east or China or Russia moment. Um uh the  Biden administration uh actually a lot used that  

32:07

line to say that's why we are embracing Saudi  Arabia uh when we once called it pariah state  

32:14

and and and trying to uh when we said once we're  going to treat it like the pri is and then now  

32:21

we're embracing it. uh that's part of the you know  narrative that they presented and that's part of  

32:28

actually Biden's even piece that he published uh  uh the Washington Post at that time to justify  

32:36

his visit to Saudi Arabia. Yeah. Uh so now we we  look at this idea of pivoting to China or Russia  

32:44

from the Saudi perspective. Is it genuine? Is it  true? Uh is it a long-term thing? Is it um a more  

32:52

profound uh understanding or approach toward this  security dynamics in the region? I think it's not  

33:02

uh one uh I just want to quote the current  uh ambassador to Turkey, an envoy to Syria,  

33:13

uh Tom Bareric, who by the way was once indicted  as a UAE lo lobbyist here in Washington. She's  

33:21

funny. Uh anyway, so this guy, UAE guy, if we may  say, uh was asked uh whether uh you know the US is  

33:33

going to be an always ally to the west and others.  And he literally said what a lot of people in the  

33:42

field say that uh the US uh has no permanent  friends but has permanent interests. Um and  

33:53

uh you know so they are looking at Saudi Arabia as  a treasure as a as a you know oil refinery. Uh but  

34:06

from the Saudi perspective uh he was asked about  this pivoting to China Russia. So he analyzed the  

34:13

Saudi perspective. He said we know they say this  a lot meaning like the Saudis the UAE and others  

34:18

say that a lot. we going to China or Russia if you  didn't give us this or that or security guarantees  

34:24

or F-35 or other things. Um and then the the the  pivot to China or Russia was actually um you know  

34:37

a a thing that they always say. So he said we know  they are not genuine about it. We know they are  

34:42

not going to do it. We know they are like just  basically uh bluffing if I may say. Yeah. It's  

34:51

part of their maneuver in order to force the uh  US into giving them more uh into allowing them to  

35:01

do more. Uh and I think to be honest um to some  extent some people in the in the you know um in  

35:11

Washington here buy it. Yeah. And a lot don't  including Tom Beric as he said now he said we  

35:18

know they're not genuine they're not going to do  it right and it will take them not days or months  

35:23

or years take them decades to just pivot probably  one section of their uh security infrastructure  

35:32

uh to the east in order to make it function let  alone the whole you know military infrastructure  

35:38

for example for Saudi Arabia that like a a  military that is built wholly on the US and the  

35:45

West. Uh it's it's functionally almost impossible  at least in the next I would say 40 years to quote  

35:55

unquote pivot to China or Russia. This is not to  say it's a right moment or like a wrong moment.  

36:00

It's practically speaking. And I was just talking  to um a Saudi Air Force officer, like an ex Saudi  

36:08

Air Force uh officer about this and he literally  said the following. He said um for just you know  

36:17

maintaining an equipment. Yeah. Uh it would take  a lot of money and uh a lot of caring from the  

36:26

original source from the from US um you know uh  people to fix things or maintain them just in one  

36:37

uh you know one use of of uh you know you know  a military equipment let alone the whole you  

36:49

infrastructure. Yeah. Tell me a little bit about  vision 2030. I mean um it it in many ways is the  

Vision 2030

36:57

source of Saudi legitimacy. Um but vision 2030  is in some sort of some strain at least you know  

37:03

politically, economically uh socially it it  doesn't seem to have um gained that level of  

37:10

traction uh that that it was meant to. Uh the  neon project has been scaled back and you know  

37:16

the rest of it. So like you Is vision 2030 now  just a you know redundant or does it still have  

37:23

life? Uh so I think first of all I don't want to  call it a legitimac because legitimacy from what  

37:32

I understand is a more profound ground for a a  state to be established and to be founded. Um and  

37:45

uh I I think I mean if it's if it's if it's a  source of legitimacy for the Saudi government,  

37:51

what what are they going to do after 2030? You  know, NBS in 2016, he said by 2020 we're going  

37:58

to be able to live in Saudi Arabia without  oil. And look at us now 2025, Saudi Arabia  

38:05

is not even more dependent on oil than today  in all levels. Um and uh the the lack of cash,  

38:13

the lack of liquidity, the u stock market  in Saudi Arabia is in in in a in a record  

38:21

uh bad place. Uh right now the you know the  the cash for for all these mega projects to  

38:30

take a place and to be able to you know uh  happen uh is lacking. and and and right now  

38:39

uh you know the example that everybody  gives right now is uh the line project  

38:46

which was proposed to be 270 kilometers and  right now it's like 3 kilometers. It's not  

38:52

even 1% of the original plan. So, right, you're  right. There's a what they called uh basically

39:05

I would say a tamed expectation of what the  project if we are going to be also like very  

39:13

generous with them. Um but at the same time um  they did not give up the vision 2030. They're  

39:21

still talking about it. they think it's an  idea to bring everybody together and it's  

39:26

MBA is basically master plan and for him uh in the  beginning I think he was trying to um materialize  

39:38

something something on the ground they can that  can that that can make him a hero. I think by now  

39:45

he realized this is not going to happen and what  makes can make him a hero is basically uh playing  

39:53

on the image. uh basically not making things  happen on the ground but on the uh online space  

40:02

in which he can promote as something happening and  and also play on other things including by the way  

40:09

what they called the pressure on the Palestinian  state because they know the Palestinian issue is   very popular among the Saudis. Uh we hear in the  past few weeks that oh Saudi Arabia is actually  

40:20

doing um a lot to Palestine uh to the degree that  one of my like funny friends called it he said  

40:30

NBS now is a pressure cooker. He's a pressure in  all states around the world to do this. They talk  

40:36

about the pressure all the time. It's it's what's  rendered right now every day in Saudi Arabia.   was like, oh, what they call the the Saudi  pressure, meaning look what the Saudi pressure  

40:46

uh made every country uh who recognized Palestine  to do so. Uh and therefore they're trying to say,  

40:55

"Oh, look now we care for this uh issue." I hope  this is the case. I'm not saying, "By the way,  

41:00

this is not the right direction." But again,  like pretending to love and pretending to care  

41:09

is is for me good progress toward the right  direction. Wait, wait, wait. If you like this  

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41:16

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41:25

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41:48

and subscribe to the Thinking Youth podcast. Thank  you very much. Now back to the show. We titled our  

41:55

last episode something in like Gaza will bring may  bring down the for Saudi uh Saudi state and um uh  

MBS grip on power

42:03

what you've described today of the Saudi people of  the people of the country. There is this you know  

42:09

ground swell of opinion that's pro Palestine that  hates what's happening in Gaza and feels for our  

42:15

brothers and sisters in Gaza. Um, I'm just trying  to marry, you know, all of what you've said today  

42:22

with, um, the idea that has MBS really lost grip  on power? Because it seems to me from out from  

42:29

from an outsiders perspective, and I don't follow  it as close as as you do, um, MBS has really got  

42:35

a very strong grip on on power in Saudi Arabia.  And that doesn't seem to be at least internally an  

42:42

organized movement. uh and of course with all the  caveats that it's very difficult to gauge right  

42:47

but there doesn't seem to be an internal movement  or at least he's dealt with uh those pockets of  

42:53

disturbances those challenges uh in Saudi Arabia  like talk to me about is there really a uh a an  

43:03

avenue here like Assad and like others is there  an avenue here for this regime to fall? Well,  

43:10

uh, two quick points. I I don't know when I say  quick points, I don't know if they're going to be   quick, but I'm trying. You're welcome. Uh, so one  is um if you ask Syrians and I have by the way,  

43:27

one Syrian friend I don't want to name because  now he has a position in the Syrian government.  

43:32

uh asked him few weeks swear to God before the  fall of the asset and I asked him he said we don't  

43:38

think this is going to happen and he said um at  the end we're looking at the assets that that is  

43:44

going to be normalized in the you know uh in the  Arab world and uh we're just trying to get as much  

43:52

as we can u from the current moment and then weeks  later because why because the acid reg acid regime  

44:01

uh had all the things against them but they are  betting on power alone. Not betting on the people,  

44:11

not betting on the social structure, not  betting on institutions, not betting on you know  

44:17

neighboring countries, not betting on basically  betting on the wrong things. Um and Maldun  

44:23

once said uh you know for uh you know polity to  continue you need uh a ground of what he called

44:37

right now we call it legitimacy or solidarity.  That's why I think legitimacy is more profound   than a plan or a vision. It's it's a it's a  ground where you make where you have the people  

44:48

where you you you let the people have faith not  in you personally but in the institutions in the  

44:54

government in the system of policy in the system  of uh understanding this relationship between  

45:00

the ruled and the ruler. Yeah. That's what even  legitimacy in the eyes of the jurist historically  

45:07

uh right um that's why they why they studied this  um so again going back to NBS so this idea that  

45:21

um uh he has a strong uh grip on power I think  it is superficial not the you know that He like I  

45:34

mean he's super it's superficial in the sense  that he silenced everybody but this is very  

45:43

dangerous actually it means just postponing the  implosion I think is that the right word um uh  

45:53

postponing the crisis uh and uh making people  uh fearful and uh he once said to my father he  

46:02

said I think polities are ruled by fear not love  um and I I think he believes it and he he quotes  

46:11

um Mavi I don't know if rightly or wrongly I  always think wrongly but you know regardless  

46:19

the the thing is he thinks that fear alone uh can  can make people you know um go away and I disagree  

46:32

and that's why I am a dissident. I mean the thing  is that's one factor alone. The other things is  

46:40

uh I think by like by alienating a lot of segments  within the Saudi society he's pushing a lot of  

46:49

people to be dissident that are not traditionally.  So I mean like royal families like like we have  

46:57

allies in in in the family itself. We have allies  in in different segments of Saudi society. We have  

47:04

like allies are not traditional allies. Just  today was talking to a former minister of state  

47:10

uh who was alienated and he was like just  complaining and talking about these things and   ideas and he was thinking about even a lawsuit.  Um so talking like all these things leads to  

47:24

uh at the end and I think eventually uh the much  you alienate the like the much you alienate people  

47:34

the the the the the ch like the better chances uh  to basically get um at the end in trouble I would  

47:46

say to say the least. So that's that's why I'm not  uh pessimistic. Uh and that's why I think don't  

47:56

judge it from uh you know the face of it. Yeah.  Uh, can I ask you about how we nonSaudis should  

Non-Saudis relationship with Saudi

48:06

view the kingdom because of course we everyone  sees what the Saudis have been up to and doing and  

48:13

and we're we're very perturbed by their activity  especially uh normalization with Israel and and a  

48:20

lack of action over Gaza. Um uh there has been a  a conversation, it hasn't had very much traction,  

48:26

but there is a conversation amongst Muslims  that should we really be going to Omra so often,  

48:33

for example, and and how that feeds the Saudi  economy uh and and should we really be um  

48:41

um you know, should we now think about Saudi  Arabia as a country that should be on our boycott  

48:47

list for example? I mean what advice would you  give to just your ordinary Muslim you know who   goes to Omra especially here from the west right  we we can go to Omra every year if we want to and  

48:56

some people do go to Omra on their way to Dubai  or somewhere they go to Omra Dubai is another  

49:02

country they should probably boycott um uh how do  we how do we how should we view uh Saudi Arabia  

49:10

like what untangle that dilemma for us please yeah  of course um so it's it's not easy even for me.  

49:19

uh although we have thought about that a lot  and we discussed it a lot with a lot of people   and a lot of folks a lot of folks and a lot of  colleagues of mine including within like within  

49:27

the dissident community um and um I I think  I leave it to the people and their assessment  

49:36

uh especially those who never had hajj it's  like whether the like performing the ritual  

49:42

uh and whether this going to be a risk for them or  not and whether this is going to go into the hands  

49:49

and the benefit of the Saudi government directly  or not. Um I think yes at the end they are I mean  

49:54

the Saudi government are benefiting from how  many people but believe it or not at the end I  

49:59

think we realized and alhamdulillah I was in this  position that I I I invest more in not calling  

50:09

people not to go there but rather to use it uh to  you know uh talk to people have conversation of  

50:19

course be careful but also uh you know document  and once you go back you can talk you can have  

50:28

a conversation and um you know um it's like for  example I remember during the Hajj not last time  

50:36

but Hajj before a lot of the people who actually  helped us document the you know during the Hajj  

50:46

thing during the Hajj crisis was actually were  were all these people um and individuals. We kind  

50:53

of created what like a crisis I would say team. Uh  and during that Hajj actually um uh we documented  

51:05

about above a thousand people died stampede.  Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And  

51:11

then at that time the Saudi government came out  and they said there was zero incidents. No way.  

51:17

We call them out. We talk to every agency that we  know. We send them the numbers. We send them the  

51:23

names. We talk to everybody including diplomats  like Jordanian diplomats, Egyptian diplomats like  

51:28

Tunisian diplomats and you know from uh you know  around the world uh and even um western diplomats  

51:37

um who lost contact of their citizens and then  we talked we connect them with with agencies and  

51:43

you know French the French agency and the AP and  other agencies and then when the Washington Post  

51:50

and other journals uh and newspapers started to  publish about this. They the the Saudi government  

51:58

was freaking out. They they they hated us mostly  for this. Um and then later that week they  

52:07

actually uh admitted that a,31 people had died.  Uh and uh if it if it were not for this for these  

52:20

people individuals and like who who actually did  a lot to help and uh protect them and you know um  

52:28

so this is just a you know an example of what  you can do uh other than just be by cotton. So  

Actions of Israel

52:37

let's talk about contemporary uh politics. What's  happened you in recent months? Now, of course,  

52:43

uh we've had uh a series of events, in  particular, the the uh the horrific u um  

52:50

explosions or or bombings of of of do in Doha of  the Hamas leadership. And it just seems to me,  

52:58

and maybe again I'm I'm overreading this, but it  just seems to me that um the past few months of  

53:04

Israel's bellyos behavior has have those weeks  have has Israel's actions maybe maybe given the  

53:14

Saudi government uh paused for thought because the  original conversation we had uh 7 months ago now,  

53:20

you know, you were pretty adamant that Saudi  Arabia was on the pathway to normalization,   right? Uh do you think that um these actions of  Israel in the last few months has really woken up  

53:32

the Saudi establishment to uh the real intentions  of the Zionist state? That's a very good question.  

53:38

I think woken up is a very strong word, very uh  optimistic. I hope that was the case. Yeah. Uh  

53:47

practically I think it's not um for the reasons  that I'm I'm going to say here. uh one um reading  

53:57

the pattern when you when you understand uh  uh politics of someone or some leadership  

54:04

uh you want to detect the pattern if you see the  pattern of the Saudi leadership systems came to  

54:10

power uh you understand you will understand uh  clearly that uh normalization was something that  

54:18

uh they were pursuing all along. M just a few  days I want to remind uh your uh listeners uh  

54:25

and viewers a few days before the October 7th NBS  said uh we are never been closer to normalization  

54:33

than today. Yeah. Um he said that on Fox News. uh  and then uh even when the October 7th happened,  

54:42

I don't know if you remember this, but also also  approached the Israelis with an idea and a plan  

54:49

that they will stop even uh uh um you know um for  a short period of time the bombardment of Gaza  

54:59

in return for the normalization uh because  he still wanted to normalize. Uh however,  

55:06

what changed over time is that the Israelis became  less interested in normalization. Um in a sense  

55:13

that the Saudis and the Saudi leadership was more  uh interested in normalization than Israel itself.  

55:22

And this is not just according to me, according  even to somebody like um James Dorsy uh and  

55:32

others um who were close to the understanding of  the Israeli leadership. Uh and so that that's I  

55:41

think one important point in understanding what  happened what what led to the current situation.  

55:47

So that Israel uh even in the last few weeks  uh the uh one of the Israeli newspaper I forgot  

55:57

what it is um but it reported that Beyamin  Netanyahu sent a message to NBS saying that  

56:06

uh um you know they're no longer waiting for NBS  to uh you know approach them with normalization  

56:14

meaning like they're not even interested they sent  a message. It's like oh we are not even interested  

56:20

now in normalization. Um the Americans and there  are multiple reports saying that the Americans  

56:28

um sent multiple messages um and multiple uh  uh uh you know uh you know conversations. They  

56:40

had multiple conversations with the with Binyami  Netanyahu and all of the occupation leaders saying  

56:48

that well um if you want normalization with these  Gulf countries or the remaining Gulf countries who  

56:55

hadn't normalized yet uh you should uh you know at  least find a way to stop you know uh doing that or  

57:04

or have a different approach toward it just to  save face for these leaders to have an like a  

57:09

proper normalization with you. Uh and he ignored  all of these things and went ahead with all of  

57:17

you know of all of what happened and we also um  so I think that's number two. Uh number three,  

57:26

um NBS and the SEI government and authorities  found themselves in this predicament where they  

57:35

want to pursue normalization, but normalization  itself is not being pursued by the Israelis that  

57:41

you want normal to normalize with. So you can't  be more monarchical than the monarch itself and  

57:49

then the king uh himself. Uh I mean they found  themselves to be really in an embarrassing  

57:57

situation where they are uh wanting something for  Israel that Israel itself is not you know pursuing  

58:05

the way that the Saudis did. And then um they I  mean the calculation that they went through in  

58:13

their head is that well if this is not happening  and we wanted to uh at least um look among our  

58:25

audience and among our population like we are  caring and we care for the Palestinian issue.  

58:32

they pursued that. And yeah, I think I I think an  important understanding to all of this is to say  

58:44

um I'm a strong believer that this the the vast  majority and I think I've said that multiple  

58:50

times and many things before. The vast majority of  the Saudi population still believes, understands,  

58:58

and supports the Palestinian issue in all hearts.  Don't believe or be deceived by what you see  

59:05

online. It's all manufactured in small rooms in  Riad by the Saudi government. They what it's what  

59:13

they wanted you to see, not what the Saudi uh  population uh, you know, do or think. I mean,  

59:20

Abdullah, why do you think that the Israelis are  no longer inclined towards normalization with   Israel? because at one point that was seen to be  you know the the crowning achievement of the deal  

59:31

of the century. What what changed? I think what  changed is that the internal calculation of the  

59:38

um Israeli government and Netanyahu especially  Netanyahu uh is that there there are two factors.  

59:48

one the foreign policy or the like embracement  of the neighbors. Uh and the other factor is the  

59:59

content of the population and what they want like  their what they think their population and most of  

1:00:06

the Israelis which is winning the war at all cost  at the humanitarian cost at uh all disastrous at  

1:00:14

all all ethnic cleansing and you know all the the  catastrophes that we seen and he definitely chose  

1:00:22

the latter um like you want to have a diplomatic  relationship uh at the expense of the there was a  

1:00:32

time when they think they had to choose between  they can't have both. So from what you've said  

Normalisation agenda

1:00:39

is normalization then off the agenda in the  foreseeable future? Yeah. For the for the uh  

1:00:46

foreseeable future meaning in the next few months?  No way. Next few years. Next few years. Who knows  

1:00:52

if things like radically changed. For example, one  of the things that the Saudis want to have before  

1:00:59

normalization is to have a point that they can  sell to the people and to the Arab you know region  

1:01:09

that they have done for Palestine in return for  normalization. So if you see now I think this will  

1:01:17

help you understand what the moves now about like  the Palestinian statethood and whether this is  

1:01:24

genuine or not. I think by now you understand what  I think about it. Yeah. I mean in in our previous  

Americans

1:01:29

conversation we talked about the Americans of  course the the it it was very clear to me that  

1:01:37

normalization uh even though they talked as a fig  leaf about a Palestinian state in reality there  

1:01:43

were greater national interest concerns or at  least NBS national interest concerns at stake and  

1:01:49

and the negotiation was directly uh a negotiation  with the Americans by what you by extension of  

1:01:55

what you've said so far um It seems to me that  if normalization seems to be off the table,  

1:02:01

the Americans are not that interested in in  engaging the Saudis on on on this reproachment  

1:02:07

with supposed you know public reproachment with  Israel. Is that is that fair to say? I think it's   very fair. I think there are two points quick  points here. one very true. Um uh it it was  

1:02:19

made clear or became clear to all these actors  that uh normalization is normal is no longer uh

1:02:33

associated closely associated with the  security guarantees that the Saudis  

1:02:39

uh want to have from the Americans.  That's one. Um because with the Trump  

1:02:44

administration and all the pure transactional  relationship, yeah, they um you know basically  

1:02:54

uh approach this in the way in a way that um the  Trump administration wants money, wants deals,  

1:03:01

wants all these billions from the Saudis and  I think they promised to give him promised   promised to give him uh signed so many deals, so  many contracts we it's now well known. Um so for  

1:03:16

the Saudi leadership and Muhammad Musman, well  if this was enough for them then why would we  

1:03:24

you know do that? Uh so that's also part of the  calculation. I think the second factor is that  

1:03:30

um uh again the development in the region uh and  uh Netanyahu realizing that um if they want some  

1:03:42

kind of even safe face kind of concession uh  even that he's not ready to do it. He's not  

1:03:52

uh you know in the place to want to do it. Yeah.  And he chose not to. and the Saudis felt well no  

1:04:00

I mean why would we do it now there is no interest  and the final factor in all of this also is again  

1:04:09

the Saudi people um I've I've noticed in the past  I would say few weeks the trend in hashtags on X  

1:04:20

of course pushed by the Saudi bots associated  with the Saudi government is that MBS is  

1:04:26

um is is the new I kid you not making this up.  Um you know, and by the way, I'm I'm happy not  

1:04:36

because they're lying about this, but I'm happy at  least they're pretending to care, which is a bit  

1:04:42

of a progress from the past, you know, complete  abandonment of the issue is not when they even  

1:04:50

did not care to pretend, you know, pretending  to care. You know there is a famous songw

1:04:59

from it's like see even like when you are lying  that you love me you know I think that's what he's  

Saudi-Pakistan defence pact

1:05:07

doing he's he's of course he's lying but at least  he's pretending to love. So uh can we then talk  

1:05:14

about the security guarantees because of course  what is really interesting in this past week   actually is the uh surprise Saudi Pakistan um uh  defense pact. Uh and of course this defense pact  

1:05:28

is is being tallied is been pushed as a a NATO  style defense plan. And of course, one of the key  

1:05:34

uh sticking points in the negotiations with the  Americans was uh creating this security umbrella  

1:05:41

uh a NATO style security defense bat between Saudi  Arabia and and America. And as far as I know,  

1:05:46

that hasn't really moved forward. Yeah. So, um  I'm intrigued to understand why did Saudi Arabia  

1:05:53

decide to sign this pad? Is it substantial in  in your eyes? And um does it indicate that Saudi  

1:06:00

Arabia again has has realized that at least that  the Israelis are no longer uh because of course  

1:06:07

it's time to come after the Doha attacks and it  it seems to be you know it seems to come after  

1:06:15

the series of unprecedented Israeli activities  across the Middle East. So is it a sign that NBS  

1:06:21

has woken up to and again I know the word woken  up is probably too too firm too strong here but  

1:06:27

has has realized that the Israelis uh cannot  really be uh partners security partners moving  

1:06:34

forward. A great question. So um first of all um  we have to understand the context and the history  

1:06:43

uh between the two countries. Um growing up  uh I've always heard that um in the you know  

1:06:52

Pakistani army there is um they said brigade  um uh that was named after the two holy mosques  

1:07:01

uh and was uh devoted and dedicated to protect  uh Saudi Arabia. That's what they said. Um  

1:07:11

uh also historically uh Pakistan and Saudi Arabia  had so many agreements, security agreements,  

1:07:20

military agreements. Uh it has that long history.  Uh when NBS came to power and things became more  

1:07:27

transactional, uh he realized during the Yemen  war, the beginning of Yemen war that he would  

1:07:35

need Pakistan. So he think that he would buy them.  Um so he at that time approached Imran Khan. Um  

1:07:46

uh and uh there was if I remember correctly a deal  uh I don't know how how much was materialized but  

1:07:55

a deal uh to uh defend Saudi Arabia and all that  and Saudi Arabia in return would pay such and such  

1:08:02

amount. Uh however Iran Khan did not want to  also be directly involved with the Yemen war.  

1:08:09

Um Ahmed Misman was so much um disappointed. Uh  there was a time when even uh people close to  

1:08:17

the circle of NBS said there was even screaming  uh in the room uh between the two. Uh there was  

1:08:24

a time when Iran was so like left uh so angry. Uh  so so the this is part of the recent history also  

1:08:34

between the two. Also growing up uh we we have  always heard that uh Saudi Arabia has or had  

1:08:44

um a nuclear weapon uh in Pakistan. Uh meaning at  that time what they pretended or or or at least  

1:08:54

um claimed uh is that Pakistan was kind of the  the surrogate if I use IVF language the surrogate  

1:09:02

for the nuclear uh pregnancy if I may say uh for  Saudi Arabia and um uh that was part for like to  

1:09:14

defend Saudi Arabia part of the agreements like  all all that history between the two countries.  

1:09:21

Um NBS right now uh after I would say the two  2019 gig moment. The gig moment is when the oil  

1:09:32

refinery was hit by the Houthis uh the Americans  uh even during Trump did not want to get involved  

1:09:40

uh and basically left Saudi Arabia to its fate.  NBS was so shocked. It was a turning point in  

1:09:48

uh Saudi security calculations. Um and NBS  uh this is when NBS started to think about  

1:10:00

either Biden binding the US to an actual and real  security uh agreement where they will defend him  

1:10:12

if things happen uh or he will turn somewhere  else. Um so that's when he started doing that.  

1:10:21

Now with the security agreement falling down and  not you know being fulfilled when the you know uh  

1:10:30

Trump administration you know not willing to go  into war for any country perhaps except Israel.  

1:10:42

um NBS started to realize well even if  they signed the security agreements with  

1:10:48

the Americans Americans are the masters of  loopholes they will find a loophole in any  

1:10:56

security agreement they will turn their back on  you they can do it like this and um so that's one  

1:11:04

and two um now part of the calculation well like  all what MBS has thought about was like Iran is  

1:11:13

the enemy. Now if Israel was the one to bomb, you  know, uh so that is the calculation. Of course,  

1:11:22

I'm going to come to that. Uh this is not going  to help at all. Americans will definitely be on  

1:11:31

the side of Israel, not Saudi Arabia, if they have  to choose. Um so that's this was like another uh I  

1:11:39

would say moment. Now this is the the dha moment,  the gig moment and the da moment. Now is this a  

1:11:47

good progress toward understanding the region? I  think for me it's a step in the right direction.  

1:11:55

I'm trying to be really really careful. Now you  you you get this from a dissident. I'm trying to   be fair. Yes, it's a step in the right direction.  But also we have to be really really careful not  

1:12:06

to I would say overestimate what this agreement  means for both sides. One let me ask you this. Um  

1:12:17

the NATO agreement is actually means it goes both  sides right? He should go both sides like what  

1:12:26

would the Sudis offer to protect Pakistan because  Pakistan has something to offer to protect Saudi  

1:12:35

Arabia if they will um is Saudi Arabia willing  and able for example if Pakistan went to war with  

1:12:46

India for example this is not a like a far-fetched  scenario uh Would Sery be part of the you know war  

1:12:55

and like inter war? Absolutely not. This is not  thinkable. Uh so this is just a simple scenario  

1:13:02

that shows you this is not going to happen. the  NATO style agreement between the two countries  

1:13:09

are more like in paper uh than an actual uh  you know change of um I would say security  

1:13:20

uh uh dynamics uh in the region. It's it's part  of I think for me it's part of NBS's maneuver to  

1:13:30

the west that I have other alternatives right  it's maneuver it's like I'm I'm not satisfied  

1:13:37

with whatever you have provided me so far and  even when you give me security guarantees I have  

1:13:42

to make sure that this is going to happen uh and  perhaps uh also when uh the DA moment happened Um,  

1:13:53

and I think despite all the the problematic and  all the the the catastrophe that this caused,  

1:14:01

uh, it was a moment to at least help, I would say,  um, kind of kind of, uh, correct the the compass  

1:14:13

uh, of what, um, what could happen, you know,  and what and and who the the the, you know,  

1:14:22

the I mean where the problem could come from,  you know what I mean? Uh so all what basically  

1:14:33

occupied NBS's mind since he came to power is  the nuclear weapon of Iran. And right now what  

1:14:45

actually bombed uh the Gulf was not that nuclear  state but actually uh you know Israel. So has  

Iran

1:14:55

there been a a recalibration of of of um of assess  threat assessment here? I mean is Saudi Arabia  

1:15:05

less uh harmed by or less perturbed by a nuclear  armed Iranian state? and possibly more perturbed  

1:15:14

by Israel. Uh I don't think it's to that point.  I think they are in the moment that they are  

1:15:26

still like they still like afraid I think of the  Iranians more than the Israelis, right? Big time.  

1:15:31

Yeah. But I think they are a bit less paranoid.  They're not as paranoid. Yeah. As they were once  

1:15:42

because in the past they were paranoid about the  Iranians to the degree that they didn't care about   anybody else. And this kind of like give them a  a scenario where an alternative could happen. Um,  

1:15:55

so they're still paranoid about the Israelis,  but I think about the Iranians, I mean. Um but   I think the also the Americans involvement  in the war uh and and and and uh you know  

1:16:09

uh striking striking different cities uh basically  uh Syria going out of the calculation for you know  

1:16:19

allies of Iran and and Hezbollah you know also  being hit and all of that uh gave gives Saabia a  

1:16:31

bit of a moment to rethink that well they're not  as strong as they thought and um uh even if they  

1:16:41

were they are not now uh and uh Israel became part  of the you know scene and I just want to also say  

1:16:52

this one last thing which is the Israelis they  they're not They're not um you you do not have  

1:17:02

to analyze what the Israelis want to say and do.  They they say it themselves. Yeah. And they do  

1:17:08

it. Uh Biny Netanyahu said it. He said, "We going  to go after anybody who uh you know uh is is uh  

1:17:19

thought to be a threat to us anywhere and anywhere  like should be underlined. um uh when they went  

1:17:29

uh after Hamas leaders in in in DHA despite the  you know all the Americans all the Americans you  

1:17:38

know um coordinations with with with the about  this I mean for God's sake uh Hamas position  

1:17:50

in DHA was in close coordination with the US to  be positioned there uh in order to facilitate uh  

1:17:58

negotiation. And despite all of that and despite  all the allies, despite all the, you know,  

1:18:05

lavish spending during the Trump trip, uh despite  all the, you know, um the promises and everything,  

1:18:12

you know, they did it nevertheless. Abdah, I'm  fascinated by this term you use for Doha moment.  

Doha Moment

1:18:19

I mean, do you think it's a moment not just for  Saudi Arabia, but a moment for all of the country,  

1:18:24

all of the re uh countries in the region? Um, I  just wonder whether uh because I I hear there's  

1:18:32

talk about expanding this agreement with  Pakistan to Egypt, maybe even to uh Qatar,  

1:18:39

maybe even others in the region may want to join.  Um, I mean, how likely do you think that is? I  

1:18:45

think it's possible. Uh but also I don't want to  overestimate it or um think that it's going to  

1:18:55

do bigger than what could actually do you know uh  and um uh at the same time I think yeah there are  

1:19:10

actors in the region um that started to think that  um Israel is not just threatening. They can act,  

1:19:23

they can operate and I think um with Israelis  being isolated diplomatically, they are not  

1:19:31

more dangerous because they are not now uh  even caring about pretending to be, you know,  

1:19:37

to abide by any international law or anything.  They never did, but you know, they're now even  

1:19:43

more so. Um and now with is with the Israelis um  going to Lebanon, Syria, bombarding Iran, places  

1:19:58

in Iraq, DHA, Yemen. I mean who else? Like right  now we just mentioned like what seven countries  

1:20:07

uh in the region. why you think other countries  are, you know, immune from uh being the next  

1:20:14

target. Abdullah, as we wrap this conversation  up, I mean, let me ask you a personal question.  

Worry for his safety?

1:20:19

I mean, do you worry about your own safety  um when it comes to being a Saudi dissident,  

1:20:24

we know what happened horrifically to uh Jamal  Tashogi. We know that I mean I passed a street of  

1:20:31

course that's named after him by the Saudi embassy  of course but uh we know that um there are uh but  

1:20:38

the Saudi government remains as you've just right  described today extremely repressive um the Saudi  

1:20:46

Arabia still use the Pegasus software the Israelis  have supplied them in in you know in in in trying  

1:20:52

to break into phones of of these dissident like  do you worry about your own your own safety and  

1:20:58

you have concern concerns about that. Well, look  um uh I remember growing up uh once hearing a  

1:21:04

story from my father. Yeah. He said uh plague uh  went to a town uh and then uh when he went out of  

1:21:15

this town like in the form of a human being uh  people saw him and they asked him he's like oh  

1:21:23

you were the plague. He said yes. He said oh you  went out of this town. He said, "Yes." He said,  

1:21:28

"But you killed f 5 5,000 people." I said, "What?"  "No, I only killed 500." So they said, "Then what  

1:21:36

the 4,500 remaining people were killed from?" He  said, "From feeding me, feed him the plague." Um,  

1:21:45

and this in this analogy, I would say the plague  here is dictatorship and tyranny. Uh, for me,  

1:21:52

I would never die from, you know, we only die  once, as they say. uh I will never die from like  

1:21:58

I will try inshallah not to die from feeding uh  all this repressive policies. Um, and I think they  

1:22:09

they part of what they engineer in policy, uh,  these dictator uh, you know, minds is to make you  

1:22:20

fear them to the degree that [ __ ] you from doing  the right thing, from exposing the wrong policies,  

1:22:31

from calling out violations, from documenting in  uh you know repressive policies uh and I think I  

1:22:40

choose not to uh fear because it's a choice. The  prophet sallallahu alaihi wasallam said to man so  

1:22:48

people later said how you asking somebody not to  have a certain feeling is just it's just it's a  

1:22:58

message that you can't control your own feelings.  You can't have a feeling or not. You can have uh  

1:23:03

uh anger or not and you can have fear or not. So  inshallah inshallah I choose not to have fear. And  

Shaykh Salman Aloudh

1:23:11

finally your father Shik Salman Auda you know  he's he's in prison he remains languishing in  

1:23:17

prison. I believe he's still on death row in in in  Saudi Arabia. Um just tell us a little bit about  

1:23:23

uh his detention, his treatment and and what are  any updates on on on his condition? actually uh  

1:23:30

this this month uh marked an eighth the eighth  year since his um imprisonment. He's still in  

1:23:37

solitary confinement. He was mistreated um just  for a tweet for a tweet. Uh but again it's a it's  

1:23:44

a tweet that was the I think the the the the I  would say the trigger but also it was a longer  

1:23:52

uh relationship and and fear of uh this discourse  of independent scholars Muslim scholars in Saudi  

1:24:00

Arabia u and and you know eight years later now  um he's still in the same position. Uh yes there  

1:24:11

are people who were released. Uh we asking Allah  subhana tala to fasten his release and to make  

1:24:17

it quick. Um but yeah I mean the at the end uh  just keep him in your prayers and thoughts and  

1:24:27

inshallah uh this will happen. Um, Abdullah, it's  really been a fascinating conversation and uh,  

1:24:35

I I really the phrase you use, the Doha moment, I  think is a phrase that needs to catch on because  

1:24:40

I I suspect uh, this has been a a wakeup call. I  know the term wake up is is still debatable, but  

1:24:47

it's been a wakeup call for everyone. Uh, Jakar,  thank you so much for your time. Yeah, of course.   Thank you so much for having me. Asalam alaikum.  Now, you've reached the end of this show, and the  

1:24:57

fact that you've stayed until the very end tells  me that you truly believe in our work. Please   consider making a one-off donation or becoming a  member by visiting thinkingmuslim.com/membership.

1:25:08

Now, your contributions give you  exclusive behind-the-scenes access   and the ability to ask questions to our  guests and monthly calls with myself,  

1:25:16

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Ep 272. - Why Shadi Hamid Defends American Power | Hats Off with Imam Tom